this new sars thing might could have legs, presumedly already seeing moves in pharma (i have no idea cuz i dont trade individual stocks). maaaaaybe hitting the broad market or just general technical selling cuz we arent constantly making new ath anymore. lots of chinese pharma getting max bid for the 10% upmove.

U like pharma etf?

Outside of some small pharma stocks, I would assume this could be a net negative. Aero, travel, and hospitality-related stocks took a pretty hard dump after the news broke. I would assume it will blow over soon, but worse case scenario if it took on the shades of the original SARS circa early '00s I would assume a downturn of some sort would follow.

stock charts during SARS were actually kinda chill. granted we were in a trough of sorts after the dotcom bubble.

Bought some spy 331.50s for Friday after hours @1.00

So, I am new to investing, only opened my accounts last summer and less than 5 figures contributed so far.. Anyway, I always see talk about buying puts to protect against markets going down, what is the difference between that and just selling some of your position if you are worried about something possibly going down? Vice versa for calls too?

Buying puts lets you stay long. If the market keeps going up then the puts are a very painless hedge. But if it does drop you can use the gains in the puts to roll into buying that dip. I am never fully hedged though, just enough so I don't hate myself if the market has a correction. I am long term bullish and that is how I want to be positioned almost always.

Calls are different. You can sell them to try and boost returns although sharp up moves will be painful and sharp down moves don't offer much protection as a hedge.

Speculating on up or down moves buying options is totally different from hedge plays though. All depends on timeframes, expectations and risk tolerance.

Can someone tell me the difference between OTGLF and OTGLY?

You're blaming the fed for the prolonged shortage of physical palladium that's driving the price up?

Doubled this just now giving me a 3292 average. Still pretty small.

I'm ready to be hurt again.

Opened shorts in RCL/CCL today, I think this virus could get out of control. Like the R/R here

crazy thing w/ palladium is you dont even get a sense of greed or panic'd shorts yet when you look at the market (it's illiquid). it could go way further. i have no idea longterm, obv.

got out of EYPT today when it cracked near 2$ will buy the dip soon, rsi is looking like itll fall soon

looking to buy the breakout on WGO like 13 times trailing EPS, 11 times forward. AGRX too

Coronavirus might actually bail you out this time. Although it wasn't a thing yet when you opened this short a second time. I just don't get it man. Do you enjoy lighting money on fire? Fading moves just for the point of fading moves or because you think the trend has to be over soon is so dumb to me. Wait for the actual writing on the wall. You'll miss the initial turn, sure, but at least you won't be nickle and diming yourself to death when you're wrong over and over.

People in the market, they have just announced negative interest rates in the face of an overvalued market, and non-increasing wages. Is this corporate welfare and how do you feel. Are you happy to keep riding up knowing its not accurately valued? It seems we are emptying the 'playbook' and big players are saying its the end of the boom bust cycle at least for 2020 so the socialists cant bring arguments against conservatives who tout the strength of the Dow Jones during Trumps time.

They think after 2020 and Trump is elected they will blame China for the economic meltdown when it was in the books for a while our own doing, and Repubs / institutionalist dems will still eat it up and protect the institutions because they cant admit to being morally bankrupt and completely corrupt themselves. Using dumb blue collar workers and their racism to progress the agenda when they are still paying taxes on created negative interest money / stagnant wages/ Increasing cost goods. Big players will get free money to use and survive while DT is one of them and playing ball and white workers cheer him on, insanity. I understand those who are rich, white, and possess little to no moral compass to support, but anyone else needs to have their head checked imo

Why are recessions off the table? I get it isn't political expedient but we've had recessions before, I can see why a depression would want to be prevented with extraordinary fiscal/monetary measures but why is just a recession so impossible to stomach now?

Is it because the asset classes are just too blown up, as is the subsequent wealth effect and this can't be reversed/deflated without severe pain?

It does seem like there is going to be some helicopter money sooner than later (temporary UBI, a deficit financed middle class tax cut that is immediately monetized, massive infrastructure bill, etc)

Filled on AGRX long 3.15. Holding over weekend

Fun morning as ES opens:

- Death tolls remains at 3% amid video of people literally dropping the streets in Wuhan
- The 3% death rate is about 30x higher than the flu, and about 10% have hospital-requiring complications, which is guaranteed to overwhelm services. 2500 confirmed cases and 80 deaths.
- More cases around the world including 5 now in the US
- China has confirmed that Coronavirus, unlike SARS and other previous potential epidemics, is contagious during the incubation phase when there are no symptoms, which means it can't be stopped by border detection and is probably unstoppable and isolation is probably pointless.
- Three rockets score a direct hit on the US embassy

don't forget polls came out yesterday showing Bernie opening up a 7 point lead in Iowa.

Can't see tomorrow being anything but deep in the red.

well it was a 10 handle gap from the friday close followed by 6 more handles of follow-through. have since retraced it but yeah 10 handles lower than friday.

it's gonna be a massive smack to china gdp for sure.

i sincerely think a lot of older politicians are eventually gonna get this thing, including bernie.

If these don't open down 5+% I'll be adding after this weekend's confirmation that there's almost no way to stop the spread of this. Also opened short in EXPE on Friday

you guys DO check out RSIs when trading lower stock right??? if youre not thats bad.

To me this is the critical statistic:

There are 2,744 confirmed cases so far in China, 461 of which are in a critical condition, according to CNBC.

Even though the death toll is very high at 3%, about 15% of cases go to severe illness (meaning respiratory distress requiring hospitalization). Even allowing for 80% of cases to be mild enough to have gone undetected so far, that's still enough to completely overwhelm health services anywhere this takes hold. And infection rate is 2-3 per person. They managed to get it down to 0.4 with SARS through quarantine, but SARS wasn't transmitted in the no symptom/incubation phase.

Added more at 3245.25. Scared of the fed meeting because of the tendency to rise going into a fed meeting. Got to push this one though. Got a nice winner now and there is a decent probability of a high sigma black swan event.