Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
Palladium near $2,400. Couple weeks ago around $2k my price target for the year was $2,700 ... now thinking we get there very soon.
Crazy to think this was $1,800 last month and $800 last year-- but that's the Federal Reserve for you. They have no way out. There will be a violent correction in some of these insane risk assets pretty soon, but it will be met with an even more violent reaction of monetary easing. The central banks tipped their hand last year that recessions are off the table, they are all-in.
Perfect recipe for the "crash-up" scenario. Fed has unlimited ability to inflate asset prices; but the corollary to that is ... they will, quite literally, be required to provide unlimited amounts of liquidity. Rudy von Havenstein time.
Why are recessions off the table? I get it isn't political expedient but we've had recessions before, I can see why a depression would want to be prevented with extraordinary fiscal/monetary measures but why is just a recession so impossible to stomach now?
Is it because the asset classes are just too blown up, as is the subsequent wealth effect and this can't be reversed/deflated without severe pain?
It does seem like there is going to be some helicopter money sooner than later (temporary UBI, a deficit financed middle class tax cut that is immediately monetized, massive infrastructure bill, etc)