RSI is high onVSTM, should have sold it when it hit 1.90 and then buy backing around 1.50-160.

nice find on that one. Some serious momo. I used to use a standard bollinger band 20,2 and when it gets way above upper bollie it's a profit taking spot too. I've traded AQMS recently still holding a tiny bit here. Looks like momo still going here.

Starting back with a small ES short at 3279.5

shoudla told me about AQMS a few weeks ago when it was in 50s!!

vstm somethign ive been keeping an eye on for a LONG time, ive missed plenty of opportunities over the courseof a year with them too.

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Lol, that’s quite the reach.

Dumbest argument I've ever seen. Both sides should be ashamed. No one cares.

Idiots.

Although this was rock solid. Keep up the good work Clayton!

The fact that people are debating it shows they care about it.
There was a nice chunk of money to be made betting (correctly) that this was a shootdown and not a technical fault in the plane. BA lost 3% from those who couldn't do the math (encouraged by the fake news report in the fake news New York Times), then ripped up when the Iran shootdown news broke.

More broadly, robustly analyzing probability adds a lot of EV. You would never short BA on this event after the drop, and would be inclined to long it, if you spent two minutes working out the relative odds of shootdown vs technical fault, which comes to a near certainty of a shootdown.

I agree it's boring and pointless if you think the edge in the market is in lines on charts though...some of us enjoy having actual +EV trades however.

For the 30 millionth time, I don't use TA.

But again, if you don't think there are very successful traders that use "lines on a chart" I got a surprise for you! There are.

Ok, I missed the other 29 million times . My apologies, and nice to hear.

There are successful traders who use astrology too. And a number of hedge funds who've used it, enough that there were paid astrology-based stock picking services back in the day. Some winning Chinese funds use I-Ching. Variance makes for some weird beasts. Variance + some other edges (such as actually looking at news while also doing TA) makes for even weirder ones.

I'm moving on from this whole thing. It's pretty tragic that assassinating a general leads to 50 people dying in a stampede and 180 people dying because the iranians are donks. I read somewhere that the anti-aircraft people had the schedule of planes coming out of Tehran airport and the ukranian jet took off an hour before their schedule was claimed to have started (and they first noticed the plane at 7000 feet because there are mountains between the AA units and the airport) and someone had a 15 second window to put everything together and decided that no planes on schedule -> prob american so pull the trigger. Sad.

Insane after last week that this feels back to 2017 zero volatility. Maybe the iranian people will be so pissed off at the ayatollah that more protests leads to political instability? But unless we have another random world news hiccup I think vol is gonna get absolutely hammered. We sold off a little bit on Friday without much of a news reason so I suppose that'll be worth a look since metals are still on highs... But I wouldn't be surprised if I take the rest of the month off.

There is a well-known cattle trader on twitter who swears by certain trading strategies hinging on the moon phase and has posted enough data on it that you'd almost be inclined to think that maybe it's not 100% bullshit noise variance lol.

I think TA is a legit edge because experienced practitioners are able to ascertain supply demand imbalances effectively. Also, a lot of TA users don't realize it but they tend to pick up on real edges like momentum without realizing that is what they are doing. For example, buying breakouts is just a momentum strategy. There is no actual edge in the pattern but there is edge in momentum.

Further, a significant part of making money is just risk management. Plenty of research done showing that a random entry system can be traded properly with an exit system that places stops or targets outside of noise. Typically a std. dev. exit system.

Not to rehash but wow was wrong about the plane! Shocked all around and surprised they admitted it as well. Very sad about the families etc fd up..

Any interest in a thread dedicated to IPOs?

Some companies that might IPO in 2020:

Airbnb
Stripe
Palantir
Robinhood
Postmates
Instacart
Doordash
Lemonade
Casper

Would love to basket short all IPOs from IPO price

My Spidey senses are tingling. This just reminds me too much of Jan 2018. Still long term bullish and think we will be up on the year. Have my typical put protection in place but am beefing it up a little. I have just seen this movie too many times before. I'd rather have "extra" puts and have them go belly up than the alternative as a form of self hate insurance.

Shorty gets liquidated and margin called into Opex, SPX going parabolic starting tomorrow I guess.

Because why not.

The current problem is that unlike Jan 2018, sentiment is extremely pessimistic despite ATHs and everyone is looking for the 10% pullback and screaming "When can I short?! When can I short?! I think I can short now!". Investors are presently at net outflows, and shorty just got margin called again today.

So the beatings will continue until people finally embrace the all mighty SPX and we have net inflows, or until SPX finally goes parabolic.

I'm kinda pissed off that my current portfolio is 50% lever long SPY.

Agree its probably way too early for a pullback. But I always do my hedges for a couple of months out. I'd rather be early than late and like I said if it keeps going forever I'm fine with that. I see no scenario outside of Warren or Sanders that would ever have me liquidating anything. Then again "buy 'em when you can and not when you have too"

Using what metrics for sentiment? I'm seeing the exact opposite. No one is hedging. ****, baseball is taking heat for buying puts at a 12 vix.

Price action. Yesterday a ****ton of shorts tried to short the dip presuming that the trade deal was supposed to be a sell the news event, got ****ed by the fed liquidity, and today a whole lot of them just got carried out in body bags into the close, triggering a ****ton of margin calls to the upside suggesting we gap up tomorrow.

Everyone is trying to short this market or find a reason to short the market and is getting killed in the process. Sucks but that's what it is. It's really pissing me off since I want to short the market, but can't because of all these morons.

This sounds like you're just talking out of your ass. Unless you're a broker, you don't know any of this.