Quote:
Originally Posted by turtletom
Dumbest argument I've ever seen. Both sides should be ashamed. No one cares.
The fact that people are debating it shows they care about it.
There was a nice chunk of money to be made betting (correctly) that this was a shootdown and not a technical fault in the plane. BA lost 3% from those who couldn't do the math (encouraged by the
fake news report in the fake news New York Times), then ripped up when the Iran shootdown news broke.
More broadly, robustly analyzing probability adds a lot of EV. You would never short BA on this event after the drop, and would be inclined to long it, if you spent two minutes working out the relative odds of shootdown vs technical fault, which comes to a near certainty of a shootdown.
I agree it's boring and pointless if you think the edge in the market is in lines on charts though...some of us enjoy having actual +EV trades however.