The frigging US military, the most professional in the world, shot down a passenger plane! Your own odds ("less than 0.1%") are sufficient to give 99.999% priors of NOT technical failure. If you can't do basic probably from known odds then WTF are you doing trading? I'd highly suggest learning some probability analysis, especially since you like to trade tail events.
Yes, if there's even a 1 in a million chance that a bad actor sabotaging to embarass Iran/deescalate/kill missile sellers, an automated missile mistake when on high alert/in testing (the latter happened in Ukraine), operator errors or something else could happen, then that 1 in a million is still far more likely than a technical error.

I think you don't understand how truly rare technical failures resulting in a crash are, let alone a fireball. The known odds are greater than 1 in 200 million per flight for a fireball. Modern aviation is extraordinarily safe.

Supposedly this is the wing. There are clear shrapnel punctures throughout. Did the shrapnel come from its own engine? It's possible. But even in that scenario it could have been an attack

Here is another wing from a 737 that was confirmed to have been shot down

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service...next&width=700

Iran won't release the black box or cockpit recordings either, so....

I know you hope it is but we'll wait until the facts come out before anyone thinks that's the case. Seeing we aren't brandishing this as a case of Iran targeting civilians means alot. I hate to have step in with meta but sometimes...

Again, there is 1 major accident with fatalities every 40 million commercial flights.
There is a fireball at less than 1 in 200 million flights.

You have no clue how rare failures are in modern commercial planes, let alone catastrophic fireball failures. I think it's because you don't have an intuitive grasp of many planes fly each day around the world.
We're rapidly approaching peak clown with his post. The Iranians just shot a lot of missiles at the US and are on high alert for a revenge attack, with all their anti missile/anti aircraft systems fired up no doubt. You think this is like the US military with LAX?

You do realize that stuff goes wrong? If you think the odds are a vanishly tiny 1 in 100,000 that something goes wrong with missile systems being turned on and tested, or rogue actors, or deliberate sabotage in a highly charged environment gearing up for a possible attack, then it's still >99.9% not an accident. We have the US, Russian and Ukranian military all accidentally shooting down planes. These are data points for how common shoot downs are. But Iran wouldn't do that. No sir. They're highly trained!

More likely then the Iranians downing a plane without US or even very many westerners on it on purpose is that the US was using technology to inhibit potential areal attacks and inadvertently caused problems on a commercial flight. Doesn’t really matter as it was probably not intentional by anyone as no one has claimed any type of victory from it or even used it as part of any agenda.

you do realize the only way an rpg could realistically take down a plane without astronomical luck would be during takeoff.... it's not the movies. How dumb would you have to be to shoot down a plane taking off from tehran airport if you are Iranian.

CPRX ben volatile last few weeks but its stabilized now. I should have bought more at 3.70 last week.

holding on to SESN big time, VSTM rising , I thnk itll go back up to a 4$ stock in about 8-10 months. would be a good idea to swing it next few months tho.

Unconfirmed from what I can tell

it's confirmed, but theyre coming from militias that iran cant claim affiliation with. its gonna be the new normal, IMO. heck it probably already is the new normal. not unusual for green zone to get messed with.

TS, I think you'd like reading the drunkards walk as it deals with how a lot of people misuse Bayes to prove a point. Not saying you're doing that but I think you'd find it interesting because it basically breaks down your exact post

What the hell is this crap? The tweet you posted references a video that shows it as fireball as it goes down. The picture in the tweet is of a smoky airport, not a plane on fire or smoking. The tweeter themselves thinks it was a missile.

I didn't used Bayes at all, I just talked about the priors. I didn't actually run the math because the priors are so ridiculous.

Aviation officials agree with me, because the probabilities are just so glaring:

Whatever the final result is, a shootdown event or bomb or sabotage is far more likely than an innocent technical malfunction.

Turtle, just curious how much room you have in that ES short. Hopefully you can withstand at least up to 3300.

TS I never saw the other part of that tweet, was just sharing the video section of it and for whatever reason it popped up here as a two part tweet.

Intentionally didn't comment on it, was just sharing it because it's being passed around a bit on Twitter.

I have no idea what happened but found the video interesting is all.

Got out yesterday around the open.

Still like the short, but my year is already off to a good start (had the slv and a gold metals positions on) and don't want to ruin it by being strong-headed. Only regret is that I didn't take some off when the market went from -56 to like -19. At that point it was pretty obvious it was going to get bought. Waited too long.

Hard to not still like a short. Sentiment is Banana's and lots of stuff blowing off (TSLA, AAPL). Might be better to short NQ instead of ES. Also, think that getting back in the precious metals will be a good play soon. Probably sitting out until Monday at least.

Nothing is an A+ set-up right now even though indices are an obvious short.

Boeing running hard to the upside just now on what the smart money could work out from simple probability:

pLanE maLfUnctIOn oVeR IRaN

trump tweet incoming to reignite war escalation?? Has he loaded up spy weekly 320s??

sincerely doubt it. the plane was full of iranians and iranian-canadians. there might be some jitters if trump isn't clear, but seems like most likely result is extreme anger from trudeau and maybe more support for iran sanctions. but i don't see how trump responds militarily to this.

ya I was mostly being facetious and never meant to imply real action was going to take place. Just internally channeling a spot where something said could trigger a move

before this clown moves the goalposts further and suggests that the pentagon couldn't possibly know that iran could have done this accidentally, i'ma just hit the mute button.

lets all say it together.. its very therapeutic