idk for me I just do the wheel. I like the premium money and on stocks I wouldn't mind owning at a cheaper price the downside doesn't seem bad. Seems better than just paying money on random gambles.

so bill gates isn't going to make a trillion dollars off a vaccine (to stop a virus he started)........... i hope people pick up on my sarcastic tone.

as a serious question, will a company with a vaccine not make an enormous amount of money?....... my thought is they won't make alot per patient but it'll be alot of patients... ultimately, i agree with you ToothSayer, it won't be this massive windfall people think. i'm talking really massive windfall

It's just that the two leading candidates are likely to crush all others and get there a year earlier (likely in a few months). The Oxford group have a related MERS vaccine that prevents MERS completely in multiple animal species, which they've adapted to the near identical COVID-19. If they were public companies I'd make bets but they're not.

Antivirals and similar from non giant pharmaceutical companies (GILD's remdesivir being the one that might work) are extremely unlikely to amount to anything for 10 different reasons.

Is a massive intra day surge like that bullish or bearish in the short term? And does it matter that it was just an intra day surge? i.e. What if the market made those gains early and just stayed there all day? Or what if the market opened at the low and just climbed all day? I assume that unlike poker, the stock market shouldn't be considered all one session?

outside of the calls that are going to expire worthless, I am up/down less than 5% on avg . I was lucky enough to get in pre run, but I have the pain of seeing 20%+ paper profits go away.

I see EURN announced a dividend today. Was the size of that pretty much expected? Malachai?

It seems so many respected investors are long this but it just hasn’t moved yet. I think I’ll just hold it for the foreseeable future because it seems impossible oil demand goes up enough to offset what these stocks are valued at, especially EURN.

Seems like we can’t go down much further and could still see a significant spike. I’m sure that’s a dream spot but I’m totally new.

Yes, people always seem to think there is a linearity to price. It's not a good way to look at the market, especially the S&P, because all markets tend to back and fill.

What's worse, losing paper profits of $X or losing $X as an initial risk point? I always felt it was losing the profits. I think that's why I'm always early getting into trades and early getting out. Some guys have to sit out when losing, I have to walk away from my screen on monster days and just let it drift to my targets or else I make half of what I should make.

I think the problem with me is when a position goes mu way i avg up or lever more.. I got in at really good prices , so added calls pre earnings which turned out bad. I made the mistake of watching my TNK calls go from 1.50 to 7 and now are going to expire worthless. if im down in a position, i rarely avg down further.

as for EURN , there are two dividends coming up. one also on 5/29 paying for q4 2019

Staying in winners is one of the toughest things to do yet imperative. At least in my style of trend following. To make up for the paper cuts you need the big chunks you get by hanging tough. Nothing is more tilting than taking a quick profit on a real runner. If you haven't read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas you should! Really gets into the psychology of trading that is often the most important aspect.

If this is a problem you have often, how does a 50% trailing stop (or however wide it needs to be to rarely trigger) not fix this problem?

Will be selling more on a pullback off this 2825 level. Are we going to settle on May opex at 2800? Sure looks like it.

For those that have never experienced a bear market in any asset class, you should look at charts of other bear markets across commodities, indices, etc. They are grinds and if that is what we are in now, which is what I think (you can disagree), that is what the move down is going to feel like for most of the people positioned the wrong way. Hope and hope while the market just dips slowly lower and lower every day. Late in the down moves there is occasional bouts of panic selling interspersed with some medium term rallies after the panic.

Edit: Look at the charts for how markets trade and not for any secret formula/ patterns to make money.

FYI:

2000-01ish spx and qqq spent probably over 75% of their trading days below the 50 day moving average for around 250 days. That's a long time. The bear had another year to bottom. It was under the 200 day moving average from 2000-early 03.

2007-2009: Spx was a little choppier but spent a majority 320 days under the 50 day moving average and close to a year and a half under the 200 day moving average.


This is not intended as a prediction but merely a demonstration of how different price action is if you are in a bear market. It's good to know because every investor/trader will be forced to endure them at some point in your career.

One of the rare times we disagree, I was forced to read this book when I joined my firm and I thought it was the biggest pile of hot ****ing garbage I have ever read in my life. The author's goal was to fit in as many rambling SAT words as possible without ever actually delivering any major points.

turtle, there's no shame in booking winners early so long as it's part of an overal strategy that's +EV. But also obviously just keep a physical log of every trade and how you were feeling at the point of exit. Maybe notice a trend where the trade keeps running when you're feeling this or that. I tend to notice whenever I'm feeling like hot **** and very far onsides that tends to be a good exit point.

But yeah if you're onsides and you're feeling good about it, let it run. If you're not sure any more, get flat. If emotionally you feel better about the idea of taking part of your position off and letting the rest of it run, do that. Whole lotta ways to objectively decide your best strategy on the fly. You could also say when you're onsides, "do I like the idea of adding on more at this price point". If you do, just let it run. Or buy more! But if you don't like the idea of adding on more at that price point then maybe that's a good exit point.

Totally agree. Also, booking winners early/ halving positions is part of my overall strategy because I'm mostly looking to catch tops and bottoms. Allows me to take small initial positions and sort of lever up if they start looking like a "real" bottom or top instead of an oversold bounce or rip. Taking quick profits allows me to handle more heat if I'm early (which I usually am--look at every trade i've made itt). I can't handle the wide stops that trend-following requires and I hate getting into something middle of the move.

Baseball--I've also read the douglas book and thought it was ok. I prefer Dr. Steenbarger over any of the other "pysch" guys. In fact, one of his books is what really pushed me over the edge becasue it helped me compare markets to sports (I was a D1 athlete in a former life) and think of getting better as a process. Allowed me to not get so frustrated when I started and was terrible. Slow and steady, learn from your mistakes, and keep moving forward. Failure is not a losing trade, but the inability to take a loss or poor trade as a learning experience. Eventually, like sports, some find their way, but most don't.

Still waiting to add btw. Don't feel like splashing around too much during opex.

today seems v quiet and choppy, im sitting on my hands unless china retaliates for this new huawei stuff

I think Trading in the Zone is easily the best book ever written for the psychology of trading. He seems to understand exactly how traders feel and think when in the heat of the battle and the common mistakes that they make. If you read it before you have ever traded it may not really hit home. But if you have experienced real money live trading it hits all the right points.

Taking profits early is one of the biggest leaks there is in trading and it can be difficult to overcome. Whoever said "you can't go broke taking a profit" never traded a trend following mindset. You need those big runners to make up for the quick stop outs when you miss. There are plenty of pertinent quotes about it.
"Never eat like a bird and **** like an elephant"
"Cut your losers short and let your winner run"
"the trend is your friend"

If I get into a trade and it goes south and I get stopped out its no big deal but even after all these years I still sometimes get antsy when it's going my way. Early on this one easily my biggest leak which I like to think I have overcome.

the way i like to think about it is everyone has a different EV scatter plot, and their exits need to fit that plot.

if you take lots of small losers, then you probably have to fit your winners to run longer for the overall strategy to be +EV

if you have a higher batting average, so to speak, it's less bad to take winners.

i don't think it's a one size fits all.

in other news, looks like SRNE is the new fun coronastock

didnt have the stock on my radar until it was too late, but it was at 2.50ish yday, 4ish premarket and went to 8ish now because it's claiming one of their therapeutic antibodies blocks corona from entering the cell 100%

True enough. When scalping I am going for smaller winners with a higher batting average. But that is a totally different approach/setup than my normal approach. I find scalping much better in calmer markets while riding the waves much better with current volatility.

I had gotten away from my energy market roots and was doing a lot of ES scalping until oil went negative a month ago. Since then it has been my old school ride the waves in HO and RB as volatility is back where I like it. These markets have been spectacular for that approach and the daily ranges and moves are off the hook without the unpleasant noise I find in stock indexes. This is reflected in margins which are way higher than they have ever been. And the still have some WTF air pockets though which can be jarring.

Bloomberg headline: "STOCKS RISE AS TRADERS LOOK PAST THE DATA"

As they should. Chad traders go with their gut and make bank, meanwhile nerd virgins just analyze the data points and miss out on the big moves. You don't want it to be like it is, but it do.

reminds me of this

Are calls basically a lock for the weekend given that Jerome is speaking one hour after futures open on Sunday and nobody actually believes China could do anything meaningful?