This makes sense. Thank you.


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https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...d-Rebound.html

This should be good for tankers, EURN right?


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You probably thought that 2 weeks ago b4 while TWLO FSLY ddog etc etc went nuts. Value woulda been a mistake then.

Gl. The trend is your friend.

So how fast and how much do you think ZM drops?

Made my 2nd stock purchase ever, with the plan of never selling any stock until I'm old AF and sell everything at once.

1000 shares of TORC Oil & Gas at $1.10

Boo the environment. Lets go oil!

I think this is complicating something that is way more simple and you should actually learn about the business first and make sure its a good business

Just try to imagine as if you are buying the whole business. For example, facebook earns let say 30b per year, market cap 500b, growth is 24% per year. Do you want to pay 500b for that business? at what price would you? then go from there.

You'd think so but STNG and EURN reporting better than expecting earnings didn't translate into higher stock prices lol. I'm completely dumbfounded with how tankers have traded the past 2 weeks.

Here is an interesting read on tankers:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434...calvin-froedge

The CME has allowed USO to hold up to 15,000 June contracts but up to 78,000 July contracts per their most recent 10-Q. That's a huge source of artificial demand for July that they don't intend to take delivery on. Also supposedly the CME raised WTI margin requirements by 20% today.

Gonna be interesting to see what happens when people have to take physical delivery of all this oil. I bought some USO 5/22 $21 puts today just for the hell of it.

Personally I think this is kind of a sub-optimal way to look for stocks, but if you're gonna to this route I would recommend reading "The Little Book That Beats the Market" by Joel Greenblatt and anything by Peter Lynch.

Here's a better way to find stocks IMO: Look for a catalyst that isn't being priced in. As an example: (1) Once the coronavirus gets controlled and we have a vaccine in place, what stocks are going to move as a result of that that haven't moved yet, and when would this be likely to occur. (2) At some point Congress is going to unleash a massive fiscal stimulus bill to try to restart the economy once the virus is contained and earmark money for all sorts of different industries. Who is likely to benefit from that? As a more granular example, one thing that Democrats have repeatedly expressed interest in is earmarking money to hook up rural communities to high speed internet. They couldn't shutup about this during the debates. What are some companies that would benefit from this? I promise you this isn't being priced in right now, this would require an ability to think abstractly that analysts following these types of companies just don't have. Not saying you should go out and buy these companies right now, but keep it in your back pocket as a play later down the line.

Basically I think the best way to look for stocks is to assume that stocks are probably more or less correctly priced right now but think about upcoming catalysts that could cause that to change. Or read Joel Grenblatt or Peter Lynch books, those have a lot of good ideas in them too if you're more of a value investor type. Lots of different approaches can work, you just need to find something that is consistent with your personality and who you are as a person.

And incidentally the catalyst approach is one that David Sklansky more or less recommended in his books where he talks about stocks. He's a smart dude.

What makes the demand "artificial"? Most CL participants don't send/take delivery anyway. For example, I believe the OI on May's contract was ~100k near expiration.

I guess I was wrong about this.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/coro...lief-bill.html

But not likely to pass in its current form.

It’s artificial because normally the market is more or less in balance but right now it’s not. So if USO is buying because retail Robinhood bros who don’t know any better think oil is going up and producers are selling it will exaggerate and prolong the market getting in balance by giving producers an artificially inflated price. That’s my current theory anyways.

The word you're looking for is cotango.

Simple is ok. You might be interested in the history of deep asset value investing as there is good evidence for it. This Tweedy Browne paper is a good case for value investing. Of course there are other track records by famous people as well.

https://www.tweedy.com/resources/lib...ndOct14Web.pdf

The American Association of Individual Investors has run a model portfolio for years with essentially the same deep value approach and beat the indices over long time periods.

https://www.aaii.com/model-portfolios

With the deep value approach one winds up basically being a contrarian a lot of time and there is a lot to be said for that too. I'm not saying a pure value approach is the only way or best way to invest but it always made sense to me to incorporate it in my long-term strategy.

How is the market any less balanced now with USO holding contracts in multiple months along the curve rather than holding only front month contracts until 1-2 weeks before expiry then rolling to +1 like they were? I would say with how USO ran their fund and their roll they were already causing a major imbalance in the front 2 contract months for years.


If producers are only selling forward (I don't believe this is true anyway) because there is a new long in the market (USO) and they wouldn't be selling if USO did not exist then how has the market been moved out of balance? It seems like the net effect should be zero. Or are you saying producers would be hedging either way and now they are just getting a better price on their forward shorts? Without USO there would be nearby backwardation?

USO is more than a dollar above from it's NAV value, at some point they are going to have to stop suspending the process that eliminates that gap again right?

eyeing to keep pounding USO puts until they go back to normal and fix that, although it's dramatically reduced roi velocity in the meantime as a result

What the hell on USO. You stay away from it long while supply >>>> demand and a crisis of storage is approaching, once the two balance you stay away from it short.

Pick up the easy money (now gone) and move on to greener pastures.

USO had over 30% of the open interest on the May contract. When they had to roll their position, they moved it a ton (this was before it went negative). The way they are setup now, they do not have that much of the open interest on any contract. Their rolls are going to be a lot cheaper, in fact I barely noticed the one that just finished. The USO shitshow is over, they are going to be pretty well correlated to oil now.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/edite...191451526.html

INO earnings call transcript, they were never expected to make money but have plenty to keep on burning along

seems like a nothing thing to me as light on the trials news and process but heavy on the "if it works we're positioned to be #1 due to storage issues other vaccines will have"

stock going up on this, barring another sudden spike, i'm thinking of holding until phase II or III since this nothing news still sends it up

LB, JWN, BBBY puts all continuing to crush, thinking of exiting today though as this strongly mirrors how all my tanker calls rocketed up and now are kaput

Market action yesterday (-2% on LA county extending shelter at home for 3 months) and today (-1.3% on DC extending shelter at home for another month) shows that the buyup has been delusional and premised on the pure irrational denial/hope that this will be a V shaped recovery and back to normal in a few months.

Still sitting on my ES short, balance after some trading the last couple weeks, is around 2895. Will be looking to add to the position if it continues to move my way.



Bulls and central bankers can't just print and wish a bull market into existence you need a good fundamental base and the right supply and demand

when people tout returns on a stock portfolio, are they just not including dividends in their ROI%?

hows that work if i tout a low growth high dividend stock and stock stays flat but i just print dividends 0_0

ZQ didnt really move much off the JPOW thing this morning, it's still pricing negative by march.

prob just a lot of investor angst over the fed having to now fight against negative rates being a new meta, plus a general correction of this huge rally

The market continues to be a dream for day traders, so much time to get in this morning too. Not bad for 40 minutes, cheers.

https://ibb.co/Gtx11vv

https://ibb.co/LCxHCgF