Yeah, it's simple Bayes. Shuffle is out of his tree.
P(a random plane goes down and everyone dies) ~ 1 in 40 million (about 1 major accident/year from 40 million commercial flights/year)
P(a random plane goes down in a fireball) = ~1 in 200 million
P(a passenger plane gets shot down by operator or equipment fault with a second rate military with old equipment on high alert in a highly charge environment) = ~1 in 100,000
That 1 in 100,000 is ultra ultra generous to Shuffle. We have recent history of the above in the Ukraine. It's so common for military accidental shootdowns to happen that Wikipedia actually has a page with heaps of modern examples (despite war being limited to small geographical areas)
List of airliner shootdown incidents
Run the numbers and you come out with a ridiculously high figure this was a shootdown. The priors coming into this event have 99.9% shootdown