thread is called stock trading thread so idk where to go with my commodities observations...

to me this seems like 2017 all over again, and the only volatility is gonna come through black swan hiccups. it could be via iran shutting down the straight of hormuz, it could come from a dead american leading to trump destroying kharg island. who knows. but broadly speaking the oil market is taking these news events in stride. the world oil environment (pricing oil in different currencies, more oil coming into play) says that hedgers and producers are very happy to be cashing in on any spike.

metals might be interesting too, as they ended up having more volatility on the iran stuff than energies did. seeing both metals and equities at these levels together strikes me as odd but idk if there's a good trade opportunity off of that.

i think if trump didnt assassinate the general we'd prob be looking at the lowest vix environment in years.

I was patiently waiting for an ~11 vix to go long. Dunno if we will get there

i'm not recommending anything insofar as buys etc and so on; palladium is quite illiquid and up 57% YoY. its trading at a little over $2000 right now and was below $500 to start 2016. that's a market that could burn a traders ass in a bigly way if theyre wrong.

I personally have a small pair trade of short Palladium and long Platinum, since Platinum ought to be worth more.

one hundred billion dollars. in one day.

bought the break over previous days high $.83. Locked most in here at .91

2.01 was the spreads previous high (pall/plat). I think this is more a play on auto demand right? Seems like the sub-prime debt swirling around in the automarket might be giving Pall a bit of a boost. Not sure, because I don't trade either of those markets. This discussion has made me genuinely curious.

anyone hre high in the bio field, last year I know someoen who did well trading a coupe of them with low investment as well.

I have some in VTSM, CPRX, EYEPT, SESN

if I was more ative I coudl have easily been swinging small but decent profits last 4 months

hey look a giant ****ing black swan

Um, not a black swan, this was forseeable with > 20% probability earlier today. From 1pm:
Black swans are unforeseen, unknowable, completely non-predictable events that you couldn't see/didn't anticipate happening with any probability.

I actually think Iran is saving face against internal pressure and that Trump's most likely response - if no US servicemen are killed which they seem not to be - is to tell them that US patience is at an end and the next attack of any kind will result in major strikes inside Iran itself. These rockets were an olive branch from the Iranian leadership who don't want to die but had to do something.

ES relative recovery at open = stonk crisis averted in short term

gnarly gap = sub 3k swiftly

Kinda feels like it was a token response to appease their citizens. Can't imagine they'd actually risk killing soldiers from outside the US and there were a couple hundred troops from at least 2-3 other countries based there.

I imagine a scenario where both sides somewhat knows what's going on

The video of the airplane engulfed in flames while still flying would suggest otherwise

my money is on ukranian plane accidently shot down by iranian anti aircraft. i love to hate on boeing but if that video making the rounds is real, i dont see how a catastrophic engine failure results in the plane becoming a fireball.

i have also quite enjoyed the conspiracy theory that iran wanted to get rid of the general because they thought he was becoming too powerful (and a threat to the ayatollah) so they asked for help and US quietly obliged. then iran shoots missile at a base they know people can duck and cover with more than enough time so they still get their PR victory.

Been seeing rotation into smallcap bio/pharma the past couple days. Just put a buy stop on MRNS 2.25 undersized. I would hold that SESN awhile atleast

Shuffle, I doubt that a Boeing 737 has ever had a catastrophic failure on that level in its entire history. I doubt this so much that I'm not even going to Google search it because you are talking about an entire airliner turning into a ball of fire through some negligence. It doesn't happen

Perhaps you are a bit biased against BA

He was long BA as of yesterday.

Flattened my long SLV equity/option positions and my Short ES position. Don't see how we go higher in the metals and after last night seems like we are shaking it off.

to speak in such absolutes given the environment says to me that you are acting like a dumb-dumb. it is totally plausible.

iran is leading the investigation so it seems like we will probably never know what really happened. but to completely lose contact at ~8000 feet then go to the ground in the manner shown in that video... i think if there was a total failure we'd still see contact w the airport and boeings can make landings w total catastrophic failure at that height. fireball just seems like its more likely an AA gun.

idk man to look at all that and say 0% just seems like blowing hot air for the sake of being a skip bayless type.

Reports VS an actual 737 fireball. I ended up looking, and there was a fuel tank failure in 1990 while a plane was still grounded, but was a different version. Not a single instance similar to this in the entire history of the plane.

Then it just happens over a "warzone" (obviously hyperbole, but u should get the picture...)

ya on one side u have a thing thats never happened in the history of the aircraft

and on the other side u are flying over an area that's on high alert having just attacked MURICA

0% btw

No chance that was the Iranians, I'd point to an orbital laser before I though they would target that plane taking off from its own airport with it's own people on it. It would make absolutley no sense and achieve nothing.

Yeah, it's simple Bayes. Shuffle is out of his tree.

P(a random plane goes down and everyone dies) ~ 1 in 40 million (about 1 major accident/year from 40 million commercial flights/year)
P(a random plane goes down in a fireball) = ~1 in 200 million

P(a passenger plane gets shot down by operator or equipment fault with a second rate military with old equipment on high alert in a highly charge environment) = ~1 in 100,000

That 1 in 100,000 is ultra ultra generous to Shuffle. We have recent history of the above in the Ukraine. It's so common for military accidental shootdowns to happen that Wikipedia actually has a page with heaps of modern examples (despite war being limited to small geographical areas)

List of airliner shootdown incidents

Run the numbers and you come out with a ridiculously high figure this was a shootdown. The priors coming into this event have 99.9% shootdown

Also the fact the state Dept isn't saying it was Iran even as false propoganda says they don't want attn drawn to this one, which means it either points to it being a bad operation or more trouble for America's leading aerospace companies, a malfunction.