Well it's also the mother of all gambles. If you're wrong, you're done.

And it also guarantees the world walls itself off from YOU when you're the new wuhan.

Trump is going to see the market today, pat himself on the back, probably sign a printout of the chart and push this "reopen the economy" mantra going forward. But how is Donald Trump going to reopen the economy? Just listened to Cuomo on CNN, does it sound like NY is going to be open for business anytime soon? Does Donald Trump have any authority over that? Even if he did, do you think many people in states that have been shut down are going to start booking cruises and flights all over the place because Donald Trump says the economy is back open?

Maybe Mexico will pay for the wall after all.

and what if it takes shutting everything down for 5 months to make the pandemic under control? 9 months? 12 months?

USA can't solve the problem like korea and they're more or less admitting they can't contain it either. we now have a 12-18 month problem, or basically a problem that goes on forever until we get the vaccine.

your statement is kinda empty like mayonnaise because it doesn't set definitive assumptions for either scenario.

i'm being blunt; shutting the economy down for the amount of time that it takes to solve the issue would be worse than letting the economy return and killing 1M boomers. we don't have the option of instituting martial law for 30 days, our country is too large, it's a months and months problem if the "shut it all down" button is pressed. that kills the economy plain and simple.

I think the situation is going to change once people in their 30's start seeing someone their own age die, or suffer horribly for a month fighting this virus. This isn't just old people.

Exactly.

The guy called me turtletom. Wow. Thats ****ing insulting and honestly stings a bit. Here I am thinking my content has a thigh gap.

Lol vol ain't gone. addicts need a rest between binges. You've clearly never been on a bender. Sure tolerances adapt to the dosage of bad news, but it's absolutely still correlated and it just takes stronger material or alot more weak **** to get you going. Neither are in short supply

You are exactly right, and these 15 days are the polite way of saying it.

lots of younger people gonna die too once you overwhelm the healthcare system

was hoping to inspire you to reveal yourself

this has been on my thoughts, and why i think we are very far from the bottom because once that happens it's mad max time and just about riding out the storm

Stimulus today, gone tomorrow.

Quack or what? Dr. says he treated 350 with this combo and ZERO progression of virus.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...eview?sle=true

If they actually shut things down long enough to get this first wave under control, while ramping up testing, especially antibody testing, getting our supply shortages addressed, then you have an idea which populations need protections, you can restart things and have constant testing to isolate and tamp out flare ups. If you send everyone back to work quickly, the carnage will be unspeakable. When the hospitals get swamped, it won't just be the olds who die. A 30 year old who needs a ventilator but can't get one is dead. Not to mention all the non covid health issues that can't be addressed. Get in a car wreck, sorry no space in our hospital and we have a better chance to save this other person, sorry you're on your own.

not sure i agree w this, younger ppl are gonna get priority if you reach the point of a ventilator shortage.

and death rate among the young who don't get a large viral load and don't have pre-existing conditions is very very low.

hopefully younger ppl with pre-existing conditions rightly treat this thing like the super plague.

Insult cuts both ways.

ventilator shortage is prob gonna be a real thing for the most affected states, specifically NY.

i think whatever time lag we have w other states is gonna offer enough time to get the # of ventilators needed via mass production from other companies.

jewish orthodox doctor treating a jewish orthodox community that isolates itself from the rest of the world - that place speaks Yiddish as a first language

doesn't mention any details

chooses google docs instead of a medical journal

self published a book about how great he is in 2018

even if his numbers are legit it could simply be a matter of time and sampling

From a pragmatic perspective, I don't necessarily disagree with Clayton. Lots of people work through the flu. Losing swaths of people who only collect SS isn't a huge hit to the economy. Maybe even the opposite?

I mean, maybe it will open up some spots in the govt and we can get some fresh blood in there too.

sure, but in the interim companies will be producing and unemployment wont be reaching 1929 levels.

economic stop-start-stop-start kills a whole lotta ppl, but it also allows the economy to function. going w/ the doctors at this point sends a majority of companies to bankruptcy, ruins the entire REIT market, the list goes on.

Trump virtual town hall on Fox soon. Get ready for the rip. His tweet an hour ago shows where his head is at and he wont have any pesky doctors interrupting him with facts or sensible talking points. Its going to just be "Virus bad but we the best and will be back to all time highs in a couple months". 15%+ total gains today is my prediction.

you're straw-manning, who said anything about getting GDP back on the goldilocks path?

also you still haven't been definitive on how many months of total shutdown helps keep the virus under control, so i'm presently arguing with a sentient blob of mayonnaise. there is just way too much room for you to move the goalposts at every conceivable juncture.

i'll help: we can't do 1 month of martial law. solving this to the extent that it can be solved means using present protocols in NY/CA/etc for probably 3 months minimum. this annihilates REIT, corporate bonds, entire industries. and i'm being generous with 3, that's assuming we get to relax over the summer and prep the next fall/winter better.

So the markets have recovered a bit eh...interesting

I just bought 3 EEM April 24 $33 Puts. I'm still concerned about the market chopping around for the next month, but a day like today is too tempting.

It'll be very interesting to see how the market reacts to bad news in 2-3 weeks from NY and other states.

it's obviously not a good look, but that's where trump has put us. we gotta decide between killing 1M boomers and causing another great depression.

i don't see you providing any hard numbers with your word salad, no timeframe on the economic impact on x number of months at current shutdown and how it impacts certain industries vs. going the likely future trump route of stop/start stop/start. there's debate to be had there, but you're taking the route of "I don't want to give any timeframes, scientists good trump bad hurrdurrr".

you could start by positing economic impact of start/stop on a longer timeframe (which industries/sectors get destroyed as a result of healthcare getting bogged down for 12 months and removing 1M boomers from the system), but again you are just going hurrrdurr scientists good.

nobody here is saying trump's likely plan is going to get economy goldilocks again, me personally i'm saying trump's likely plan restarts the economy in some way shape or form and we basically have to reprice every industry in this new paradigm. economy will struggle for some time (in that respect i don't disagree!) but at least in this new paradigm there is a functioning economy, it may not be strong but at least there will won't be massive massive unemployment with entire sectors set ablaze.

if we get x months of what the scientists want, there is no economy. but you won't even posit what x is. you're a nothingburger account since day 1.

Gtfo

I’m going to ignore how incredibly wrong you are about restarting the economy only killing 1M boomers and only give my opinion the feasibility of reopening the economy in current conditions.

Old people, at-risk and sick people, I presume, will be recommended to keep status quo in this hypothetical. Those taking care of them will likely want to do the same. I strongly doubt that large tech companies that have gone remote, as well as states like NY/CA, will go along with Trump if he were to order everything re-opened. Even if he could and Cuomo re-opened NYC today, many of the places that have shut down would either remain closed or operate at partial capacity. Many will stay home, either because they have to, or can work remotely/choose to given the risks.

We aren’t going to see a return to previous demand for a long time, and letting the virus run wild again will likely just lead to more pressure and another shut down. If we can’t effectively quarantine and test now, how are we going to restart the economy with old/at-risk/sick people to stay in and an effective testing or temperature taking system for offices/airlines/retail/restaurants? Morons didn’t stop partying on the beach or at clubs until they were ordered closed. I’m just not seeing it right now.


This isn’t the flu. It kills people at much, much higher rates. We also have historical data on flu, a flu vaccine and have managed it year over year for a while. Hospitals will be overrun within a week if they aren’t already. Death rates skyrocket when this happens - this isn’t an opinion but an actual fact based on data we already have from other countries. Even youngs will die of COVID and also serious non-COVID health issues because hospitals are totally overrun. This should be pretty clear to anyone who’s been reading this forum the past few months.