You want a bull case, buy CAT, we're going to be digging a lot of ****ing ditches.


Otherwise smart people can't seem to grasp that deaths trail critical cases, which trail infections by 2-3 weeks. We're still in the first inning. The narrative that we're close to peak death and destruction in NYC is laughably stupid.

I can't really sure a bull case other than people seeing this a deep discount. And the market always goes up.

The clip is being emptied. And the destruction is several weeks away.

I'm still holding longer dated puts. Yes, could get faceripped by a 30% rally but I'm assigning a low probability to that. I'm still firmly in the camp that a lot of the economic pain that's going to be inflicted is not just due to the virus/shutdown, the economy was not super healthy (despite reaching all time hights) when this happened, the corporate debt bubble was going to get popped at some point and equities were reaching really frothy levels.

All the money bazooka **** has me slightly worried. The money has to end up in markets at some point. Of course this leads to longer term inflationary concerns but who cares about that at the moment, other than it might be good to be long PM's.

@Phantom_lord The fed hasn't emptied the clip. They're gonna keep reloading until the bleeding stops.

Bought SHOP and WYNN at close yesterday.

Someone convince me this isn't another chance to short the rip?

I'm thinking the same thing, but I'm waiting on the stimulus passing. No point in stepping in front of the train.

If market reacts the same as it did to all the monetary stimulus, it will shoot up and then back down within 30 min.

**Note: I'm not saying it will react the same, but it might.

That bill gets put through and the markets will stagnate positive (positive = no freefall lol) for short term not on what the stimulus means, but because the bi partisan cave is one of the only positives to come out of the last two weeks beyond "more dead people means a cleaner environment" and "Who knew malaria would help us with CORVID".

Markets reacting to Trump yesterday mostly, and a little bit on stimulus news. Things rip a little when stimulus agreement is announced but not a ton.

Trump tweets to estimate what he says in presser today more important than anything. He has the ability to move things 6% either way by either saying screw this lets get back to work or haphazardly letting july/august slip. No telling where he is at day to day but tweets can give a hint.

What a weird time and I have no idea what I am talking about.

So we don't forget

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/tom-...2800-soon.html

Also looking to sell this rally. I don't think it is just the stimulus driving todays news, that was known for a week but Trump saying the getting back to work thing certainly plays a role. The idea the shutdown is not going to go on as long as previously thought.

Agree overall we go lower than higher, corona being pin that pricked bubble, etc

But obviously fiscal/monetary stimulus a huge headwind. Bernanke used to call the asset price growth the "wealth effect", well I'm guessing he figured he wouldn't be around to have to worry about what a reverse wealth effect is.

Trump not backing down on his "get America back to work" rhetoric. I am staying long today.

Why is MGM mooning and LVS flat?

Covering yesterday I feel like I've been in the trading matrix for a few weeks. Better to be lucky than good.

I'm personally shorting this rip, but it may not be today. I'll post when I do.

i think with vol getting annihilated, trump reopening economy, bill stimulus, we prob rally thru EoQ. you could short but maybe longer dated stuff? i have no idea.

Who do you guys follow on Twitter for trading tips?


Here are a few:
@RedDogT3
@NorthmanTrader
@charliebilello
@markminervini
@Nayakone
@johnscharts
@SJosephBurns
@iancassel
@AlphaMind101
@LoneStockTrader
@BlogJulianKomar
@QTRResearch
@Wilsonpeter76D
@EddyElfenbein
@RaoulGMI
@BillAckman
@elerianm
@nntaleb
@RayDalio
@CliffordAsness

Its a pretty strange dichotomy where schools are shut down for the rest of the year, cities are on lockdown, healthcare workers are losing their minds, but trump is printing cash and apparently old people are willing to die for the economy. As I said yesterday, no clue what is going to happen, but these are truly strange times. I'm trying to cash up as much as possible. Who knows, maybe by the time I'm willing to buy, we will be back at 300 and it will be too late

i think the push/pull will be trump reopening the economy and the optics of that versus the worst-hit states becoming very real

just take the number of cases in each area and multiply them by 1.2 per day and keep going until you reach a number that's going to have everyone freaking the **** out. and maybe that target date is when people are sufficiently spooked again for another period of fear.

we should reach those fear numbers in like mid-April for the worst affected areas, and the trump flyover states maybe dont reach those numbers until late summer. so when trump reopens the country you may see a dichotomy of blue states getting super hurt and red states just kinda taking it easy which in turn will cause red states to get megahurt in a few months.

so once the full brunt of the virus is upon the majority of the country around june/july maybe that's when the fear gauge on this whole thing tops out.

As a followup, I like that Fox News trotted out that guy to be like "I'm cool sacrificing my life so my kids can have a stable economy". I'm pretty sure once corona becomes real to a lot of boomers that a lot of them aren't gonna be treating it similarly. you could absolutely see a ton of these old people cashing out and bunkering up until a vaccine comes.

idk how that manifests in markets but i think it's a rational consumer activity that's maybe less of a known entity right now, but it will absolutely be a thing in 3 months.

Sure thing.

Clay-bomb from clay-ton. Lol mid April and that multiplier. Are you making up ypur own news? You can spit up that pile of bile but others can't projectile up in here?

Sell. The nyc numbers are terrible. Some guy said it's the first inning, deaths will start catching up and he's absolutely right. India locked down the entire toilet. Trump is trying to get reelected not save us. He believes privileged are entitled to services so he wants open up. He wants the young to get back to work so he can play golf. The economy was built on a triple dose of viagra and now docs are draining juice from our main vein to save our ****ing lives. But Trump is trying pop more blues now. Yea this is the bottom,as in, this is straight up ass in your face leaking out rona related diarrhea.

Ny need 30k ventilators, they have 400. Gl boys coming to a city near you.

Yea amazing. Rich powerful guy, that won't personally be affected says old people should be willing to die. Boomer's aren't going to go for that. They would have better luck going to back pushing the lie that it's not even as bad as the flu.

NY is basically shut down so we prob peak in cases/deaths 3 weeks from now since it takes 3 weeks to go from infection to death

just because the numbers are terrible doesnt mean that the stock market has to be terrible. maybe there was a time when those were correlated, but that's gonna matter less now.

on a longer timeframe, sure, possibly, but vix has gone from 70s-80s to 50s and trump wants to reopen economy. a reopened economy kills a lot of people, yep, but it's obviously better for stocks than the alternative of business being shut down everywhere for months and months

are you turtle tom?