What about the Sanders virus?

Iowa caucus is Monday

or maye NH/NV will be a decent opportunity.

China wasn't masked up like crazy and travel banned during the first month of spreading. And quarantines didn't happen until much later. It's a totally different starting point.

Do you think China quarantine will be effective at preventing the spread?

No. It will certainly slow it down though.

The market down 1% today on the fed announcing that they will no longer be providing QE.

Oh wait, no they didn't. They said unlimited QE on Wednesday and the market is still going strongly down. Because of a very minor escalation in the virus situation and worry about holding over the weekend. Virus >>>>>>>>>>> fed. And the virus is still in the very very earliest stages; wait until people start dying in the West. Which might not even be necessary for a proper correction given the way Chinese businesses and consumer activity is shutting down.

That rally yesterday may have been the bull trap of the decade. If we break yesterday's lows in the futures, things could get scary for the BTFD'ers.

I'm still short, but I'm not convinced shorts are out of the woods yet.

Serious question as a new guy in this thread.

Do you guys speculate on every word every single day like monkeys or are you more long term based? It's incredible what kind of non-sense are some of you guys arguing over from one day to another and not looking ahead of time lol.. Reminds me of sitting behind a table with bunch of girls being loud, but none of them saying anything.

it's the trading thread, genius. you want longer term you can go here

All the arguments here recently seem long term (will the virus spread, will the market care, is the fed money going to overcome all concerns), with short term evidence of market reaction as small data points in favor of long term arguments. So I'm not sure where you're seeing short term.

Short term traders have to understand the long term and macro and the effect of news better than long term traders imo, who can easily be dumb and wrong and still do ok long.

Basically, as a short term trader the huge money is in finding high probability inflection points and longer term trends/changes not yet realized. That requires a solid longer term understanding as well as an understanding of all factors that happen on all time frames.

The Chicago PMI print was a much bigger deal. That print was bonkers.
Difficult to hold long now.

I'm flat, looking to short at 3220 SPX.

Chicago was bad but the PMI in other areas showed some growth...overall the US was ok for PMI. This is 90% virus fears into the weekend. Large parts of China and Hong Kong shutting down.

Market just lost half a percent in 10 minutes (in a market already down 1%) on the simple news that a single case of CoronaVirus was found in Queens.

Fed >>>>>>> Virus

Note: the above is now fake news from a NY newspaper. NYC Health spokesman tells Bloomberg no confirmed, suspected coronoavirus cases

Fake news about a single case of virus in NY able to take $100 billion off the stock market.

Covered a 1/3 of my S&P short. Probably re-short on a pullback intraday. Were off like 60 points straight down. The world isn't ending today.

If it keeps plummeting, meh, I still have a decent position on.

Feels like an accelerated selloff into the close today, no one wants to be long with a global virus outbreak of still unknown scope and severity. Most of the news regarding the virus has been trending worse, seems bad.

I don't think one up day can qualify as a bull trap. I predict the bull trap will come when the Chinese markets open and the Chinese flood into US equities for safety.

It's so nice seeing non-worthless human beings discuss this. Experts are saying exactly what I told you yesterday.

Notice they're also building their entire strategy around the German case of 4 infections that I mentioned was more valuable data than everything coming out of China combined

I obviously know jack **** about biology but that Indian paper is being dismissed as a hackjob using bad data to make bad conclusions. It hasn't been published and hasn't been peer reviewed, and presumedly if reviewed it would get torn to pieces.

ZH got suspended because they doxxed someone as the paper's author who wasn't even the author. link

whoops i goofed, Indian hackjob paper about the HIV-stuff has nothing to do with the ZH doxxing.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man...virus-pandemic

I am not going to derail this thread but I do have a quick question where I could not find the answer.

I am fascinated by trading so I ask this, why can I never find a trader who will tell me what their ROI is over 5, 10 years etc? Or what returns they have generated yearly. People just never want to talk about this and I wonder why. I know trading and investing are different animals but it would be nice to get some idea.

Thanks.

Longed some FXP Friday

Not really a "trader" per se, but I've averaged 31% annualized over the last 5 years (and have screenshots to prove this) just from taking concentrated positions in individual stocks. Of course, a big part of that was taking a very large position in PDEX early on, which is a non-repeatable skill that I can't really take credit for since the idea was posted by somebody else on this forum. But that should give you some idea of what's possible under the right conditions, I think.

You probably don't read about ROI from day traders for 2 reasons. 1.) Because most day traders have zero edge and consistently lose money, and 2.) Because day traders that are actually successful probably don't think about their ROI's for the same reason that really successful poker players don't think about their hourly rate.

To get really good at something you need to A.) Be in love with it, B.) Be 100% committed to success, and C.) Embrace a process mindset and realize that you're going to make mistakes along the way.

If you're obsessing over your ROI, then you don't have a process oriented mindset, you have a results oriented mindset, and that will likely prevent you from becoming successful.

I've been reading the same stuff, the Indian paper was a hack job. That having been said, if 17 of the 41 people had no link to the market where this supposedly originated, that's a big number. And this market being within 15 kilometers from their Level 4 Virology institute seems like an uncanny coincidence, to put it mildly. It's very possible that safety procedures weren't followed and this is the result of some kind of leak. That having been said, I don't think this is a bio-weapon or some kind of deep conspiracy, the most likely explanation (if this did in fact come from their institute) is incompetence IMO.

Overall though, the news this weekend (knock on wood) seems somewhat encouraging. I think this next week is going to be the critical week that tells us if this virus can be contained or not. Hopefully it can and will be.