Quote:
Originally Posted by somigosaden
I don't know enough about this to speak with much conviction, but why couldn't the money have come from the government? All the printing and loans and direct buying seems like it could account for much if not all of the rebound and sustained froth of equities.
Well it came from retail, we know that. If you mean from government to retail via stimulus checks and PPP (which plenty of business owners pocketed as profit), sure, at least in part.
Quote:
Also, you've been saying for a while that institutions are net sellers (or maybe just were net sellers, and in Q3 have capitulated and bought back in).
This is correct, they were net sellers in Q2 though the giant rip off lows, which was entirely driven by retail while institutions remained very bearish. In Q3 institutions have been net buyers again, there was a note out last week discussing these numbers.
Quote:
So you think they're just holding their money in bonds/cash, and have gotten woefully outperformed over the past several months?
Yes, they sold all the way up. Sane people were bears, but retail aren't sane, and there are tens of millions of them.
Quote:
If that's the case, it doesn't even necessarily seem bearish, since it means if the market finally breaks to the downside, there's all this institutional cash on the sidelines (plus JPow) waiting to buy the dip, so the bidless fall to bring us under 3000 SPX seems all the less likely to happen.
There isn't any more, they're near old levels now, the unexpectedly strong economic data and corona receding over summer made them net buyers again.
The market believes that new stimulus will save the day now and keep things ticking higher, whether it comes now or after the election. A fed member today also said they'd be quite happy about 2.5% to 2.7% inflation. It's a pretty good juice. We'll see what happens.