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2020 Stock Trading Thread 2020 Stock Trading Thread

10-20-2020 , 04:52 PM
So PM beats earnings estimate and drops -5.79? I understand that there is selling because the market expected a bigger earnings beat, but this is a cash cow defense stock. I sold a monthly put today @70 strike for .95 when it was down 4.18% and that same put is now 1.45
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10-20-2020 , 06:07 PM
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Yeah this has been the biggest retail bubble of all time driven by unprecedented new entrants. Some simple facts make this obvious:

- Institutions (anyone who has to file) were net selling in Q2 while the market soared off lows
- Buybacks, the main bid in the market, were down 46% from per-corona levels
- Retail broker activity shot up over 400% and there were 10s of millions of new accounts. Retail brokerages are booming and struggling to cope with the volume
- Retail is the only segment with enough money to pull the market up this much (retail discretionary size is ~11x all institutions)

Where did the money come from if not retail?
I don't know enough about this to speak with much conviction, but why couldn't the money have come from the government? All the printing and loans and direct buying seems like it could account for much if not all of the rebound and sustained froth of equities.

Also, you've been saying for a while that institutions are net sellers (or maybe just were net sellers, and in Q3 have capitulated and bought back in). So you think they're just holding their money in bonds/cash, and have gotten woefully outperformed over the past several months? If that's the case, it doesn't even necessarily seem bearish, since it means if the market finally breaks to the downside, there's all this institutional cash on the sidelines (plus JPow) waiting to buy the dip, so the bidless fall to bring us under 3000 SPX seems all the less likely to happen.
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10-20-2020 , 06:23 PM
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Originally Posted by snowie963
Bought another 1k of spy puts 343 and still holding 10 340s for tomorrow. Bought the 343s at 11 pst and sold after hours for 106%. Freerolling the 340s in to tomorrow.
Where can you sell options after hours?
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10-20-2020 , 06:29 PM
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Originally Posted by somigosaden
I don't know enough about this to speak with much conviction, but why couldn't the money have come from the government? All the printing and loans and direct buying seems like it could account for much if not all of the rebound and sustained froth of equities.
Well it came from retail, we know that. If you mean from government to retail via stimulus checks and PPP (which plenty of business owners pocketed as profit), sure, at least in part.

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Also, you've been saying for a while that institutions are net sellers (or maybe just were net sellers, and in Q3 have capitulated and bought back in).
This is correct, they were net sellers in Q2 though the giant rip off lows, which was entirely driven by retail while institutions remained very bearish. In Q3 institutions have been net buyers again, there was a note out last week discussing these numbers.

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So you think they're just holding their money in bonds/cash, and have gotten woefully outperformed over the past several months?
Yes, they sold all the way up. Sane people were bears, but retail aren't sane, and there are tens of millions of them.
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If that's the case, it doesn't even necessarily seem bearish, since it means if the market finally breaks to the downside, there's all this institutional cash on the sidelines (plus JPow) waiting to buy the dip, so the bidless fall to bring us under 3000 SPX seems all the less likely to happen.
There isn't any more, they're near old levels now, the unexpectedly strong economic data and corona receding over summer made them net buyers again.

The market believes that new stimulus will save the day now and keep things ticking higher, whether it comes now or after the election. A fed member today also said they'd be quite happy about 2.5% to 2.7% inflation. It's a pretty good juice. We'll see what happens.
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10-20-2020 , 06:34 PM
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Originally Posted by karamazonk
Anyone know why HZNP dumped today? I couldn't find any news.
maybe this news?

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HZNP | 10 hours ago
HORIZON-THERAPEUTICS
Horizon Therapeutics plc (Nasdaq: HZNP) today announced that TEPEZZA ® (teprotumumab-trbw) has been selected as a winner of the 19 th Annual Chicago Innovation Award. TEPEZZA is the first and only medicine approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of Thyroid Eye Disease (TED)
idk if it's the best way but i usually search google then under the search area click News (to the right of "All") then under tools click date past 24 hours then sort by date
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10-20-2020 , 07:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Bakshi
Where can you sell options after hours?
You can sell for I think 15 minutes after hours with spy at least. It dipped .20% and hit my target price so I sold. Anyway glad I’m only holding 1/3 of these outs overnight since it usually doesn’t work out
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10-20-2020 , 07:50 PM
Extremely noobish question but does a PLC like HZNP issue schedule K-1s? I just mess around with fun money here and there and avoid MLPs and L.P.s that I know issue schedule K-1s but couldn't really figure it out from google on a PLC.
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10-20-2020 , 09:05 PM
Just went all in on $ET (Energy Transfer), the weather is getting cold af so high demand for energy make this stock skyrocket to Moon and beyond. will 10x by the next few weeks
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10-20-2020 , 09:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Bakshi
maybe this news?
Thanks, Bakshi, I saw that during trading hours but I don't think it affected the stock adversely. I've since seen some speculation that investors are worried about a "blue wave" threatening drug pricing for rare diseases, which seems like the reason. Still seems like an overreaction to me. I ended up buying some 11/20 85 calls at 1.7 near the LOD. It's kind of painful to be entering any options trades right now in this topsy turvy pre-election market, but it seemed like too good value with earnings approaching to pass up. Also have a bunch of shares right around $80. My only other concern is it looks like there's been a decent amount of insider selling over the last 6 months, any comment on this, twelve year old?

Last edited by karamazonk; 10-20-2020 at 09:29 PM.
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10-20-2020 , 09:50 PM
Also, anyone still in TWOU? I saw it's gotten some attention in here in the past. I have only a small position in this one at a cost basis right around where it's at now (probably exiting soon tbh), basically trusting a friend's due diligence and ARK's investment in it, but it has to be one of the strangest tickers I follow, lots of weird moves that wouldn't happen with a higher volume ticker. Anyone know why the short float is so high?
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10-20-2020 , 10:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Bakshi
Where can you sell options after hours?
Options on ETF's trade until 4:15 ET.
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10-21-2020 , 08:33 AM
Nothing out on HZNP yesterday that I saw, broader biotech weakness out there. Try not to let price absent of news change my views on a company, so I bought some Feb options that will cover both of the next reports.
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10-21-2020 , 12:51 PM
very good food, the vegan bean butchers are having a couple big days. They got on the OTC under ticker VRYYF
Anyone holding onto lithium plays or is that over now, thinking of selling off after 80% gains there in the last month
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10-21-2020 , 12:54 PM
For lithium: The Green Energy nonsense that the Dems are pushing is a big boon for lithium. TAN for example (solar etf, not related to lithium but green energy/battery hopes) ripped hard once Biden became the clear frontrunner in the market's view (today's -5% there is about potential Uyghur sanctions). A good margin Biden election that takes the senate, if you think that's going to happen, is probably good for all this stuff. I wouldn't have the balls to hold it here though up that much.
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10-21-2020 , 01:30 PM
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Originally Posted by karamazonk
Also, anyone still in TWOU? I saw it's gotten some attention in here in the past. I have only a small position in this one at a cost basis right around where it's at now (probably exiting soon tbh), basically trusting a friend's due diligence and ARK's investment in it, but it has to be one of the strangest tickers I follow, lots of weird moves that wouldn't happen with a higher volume ticker. Anyone know why the short float is so high?
Why will you be exiting soon?
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10-21-2020 , 01:36 PM
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Originally Posted by BT2
Why will you be exiting soon?
Never should have been in it in the first place as I didn't do sufficient research. Don't like what I've been seeing from it ever since entering. Would rather put that $ into something I trust more. I'll probably wait and see what happens with this ER next week, does seem like there's more potential to the upside than downside currently.
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10-21-2020 , 08:59 PM
Lol the reaction so far to this Iran and Russia news. Expecting it to be near a total non-event by noon tomorrow. Trump's latest tweet re: stimulus on the other hand, who knows.
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10-23-2020 , 01:57 AM
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
For lithium: The Green Energy nonsense that the Dems are pushing is a big boon for lithium. TAN for example (solar etf, not related to lithium but green energy/battery hopes) ripped hard once Biden became the clear frontrunner in the market's view (today's -5% there is about potential Uyghur sanctions). A good margin Biden election that takes the senate, if you think that's going to happen, is probably good for all this stuff. I wouldn't have the balls to hold it here though up that much.
Very interested in taking a shot at some Dem stimulus plays as I think they're going to sweep everything. I'll look into this, it is already up 133% since May though.
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10-25-2020 , 10:05 PM
Holy moly, was just taking a look at the SPY option chain for election week, look at this increase in the premiums for 320 puts:

11/02 (day before election): .22
11/04: .86
11/06: 1.35

Looks like quite strong volatility is being priced in. I don't usually look at options chains over the weekend, so I don't know how reliable these are, but these are pricier than I would have guessed even accounting for the election.
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10-26-2020 , 12:28 PM
Is anyone on here familiar with funds whose primary strategy is to sell put and call options simulataneously, thereby locking in profit so long as the prices of the underlying indices stays within the respective strike prices? It's essentially a subset of the larger universe of "market neutral" funds.

My specific question is how funds of this type weathered the volatility in the markets during February-April of this year?

Last edited by Rococo; 10-26-2020 at 12:44 PM.
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10-27-2020 , 12:34 AM
If iron condors appeal to you why don't you just run them yourself?
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10-27-2020 , 11:04 AM
Many of them blew up. Paying someone to sell vol for you is a bad idea
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10-29-2020 , 04:36 PM
Dumped 2k into SPY 328 FD puts for .87 each just 5 mins before it started plummeting. Can recover all my losses for the year if we go down 2% tomorrow
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10-29-2020 , 09:03 PM
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Originally Posted by snowie963
Dumped 2k into SPY 328 FD puts for .87 each just 5 mins before it started plummeting. Can recover all my losses for the year if we go down 2% tomorrow
Good luck, I like your chances of the trade going 500+% at some point in the day, wish I had taken some of those in fact; don't get too greedy about taking some off. I'm in a bunch of puts too, although many for next week (SPY on Wed, 330 at 6.84 and a 320 at 2.77 and others for Fri exp). Think we retest 319.80 by Monday, possibly even tomorrow.
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10-30-2020 , 10:28 AM
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Originally Posted by karamazonk
Good luck, I like your chances of the trade going 500+% at some point in the day, wish I had taken some of those in fact; don't get too greedy about taking some off. I'm in a bunch of puts too, although many for next week (SPY on Wed, 330 at 6.84 and a 320 at 2.77 and others for Fri exp). Think we retest 319.80 by Monday, possibly even tomorrow.
I sold them all at 2.33, already had been up over $3 now. Last few times I sold my puts too early and missed out on large dumps, but I always look back and think "you had 100% of your gambling account in 0 dte puts, not going to have a good day if I let those gains evaporate".
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