Currently up 100% on Amazon lol

Will probably get some too. Thinking about it.

I bought 1/15 Facebook 300c

TSLA action pretty wild

closed some long call spreads in spy and qqq expiring this week. Most of my long stuff expires soon while shorts are in Aug and Sep. Bought some ATM puts in spy for Sep

stocks up vix up. Lets hope this isn't a repeat of last weeks snoozer

Sold a few NFLX puts at $510 strike. Got $10.45 per contract. Expires in 4 days.

market just sold off pretty hard on CA closing bars/restaurants/theaters

Snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with one dumb trade today.

Sold off majority of my longs on the CA news

Bought 1 tesla put for the show. Bought a few spy and spx puts just to have some skin.

Not feeling super confident one way or the other, but this could be start of another lockdown panic.

agreed

Raised a lot of cash last Friday and today. Even unloaded my SPY long position. About 50% cash now in JNK, HYD, MBB, NLY, NLY-PF, AGNC, AGNC-M and s CMO preferred. Definitely did not like intra day reversal of some of the big cap
tech stocks

Was this the catalyst? Wasn't watching the market closely today. Checked a few hours before close and my SPY puts were down small, but they closed (ranging from 10% to 40%).

I was literally researching tobacco companies this morning to open short positions under the assumption that COVID-19 would negatively impact their sales. Surprisingly some of the early headlines heading into earnings was positive as sales seemed to be up YoY for companies like TPB who are even doing secondaries. That said, I still think any widespread illness that affects the lungs will either harm existing consumers or put a damper on sales.

Here's some publicly traded companies I was looking at: https://www.fool.com/investing/the-9...co-stocks.aspx

Then of course after the bell today (and before I initiated any positions) this hit the newswire:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/13/healt...ess/index.html

I'm still going to open some positions in the morning, but feels like I missed a good opportunity this AM to get short before the crowd. If anyone who is already familiar with this industry is feeling generous on sharing their experience and due diligence, I'll be quite grateful. I'm likely going to buy 6 mo+ puts and short shares of UVV, VGR, and TPB. I'm no expert on MO or PM's revenue streams, but feels like with how broadly diversified they are they'd be more insulated from this.

May also see if I can find any small caps that have proven smoking cessation products and long those tomorrow as well.

This doesn't mean anything but I'm hoping it does.

I feel like a degen. Bought some AMZN 1/15 4500c and 1/15 FB 300 c mid-day, up like 10% quick on both and then I go to gym and it starts going the other way and I kept adding on the way down.

Got like $172k in calls equally between the 2 pretty much. Down 30k

feeling bit of the anxiety now with how fast that turned around

should I bail out and take the L?

portfolio started at 400k in the morning. So kinda in over my head like usual

Bought sqqq before the close for hedging purposes

@AllinPoker

You have ~40% of your portfolio into wildly oom calls at all time highs during an epidemic

Its the type of play that has made people millionaires during this run.

Personally, I hate it

When I bought the ridiculous Amazon calls last Friday it was like 2% of my portfolio

Shorting tobacco stocks is righteous, but I am not convinced your thesis will play out in 6 months.

Smoking is known to cause cancer, heart disease, COPD and strokes, but people still do it. Also the heightened risk for COVID from smoking is not new but maybe it’s becoming more widely known.

Hope I’m wrong, would like nothing more than to see them crash and burn.

Japan Tobacco has been a good short over 5 years.

I wanted to hedge at Nasdaq 11k but never got the opportunity. Still long equities but unleveraged. I don't think this is the start of another huge leg down, I think were more likely to get a deep dip that freaks everyone out and then continue higher. Going to look to add some leverage if we get a pullback to the 21 EMA, and heavy leverage if we drop to the 50 MA (on Nasdaq).

Only trades I made today were a small short scalp on TLSA before it really tanked, and I added some common shares of PTON at the close.

CHWY, PTON, DKNG are all stocks that I'm trying to load up on. Probably should have entered CHWY today based on it's chart. Maybe I'll get a shot tomorrow.

tobacco would be one of the worst shorts. oligopoly/monopoly, very reasonable and cheap valuations, inelastic, demand dont drop in crisis, price power/margins that are growing last 20years+., now they got vapes/iqos and weed as backups too. plus what despacito said.

Thanks for sharing the critiques/advice. Keep 'em coming.

This made me laugh. I'm still sitting in a lot of tech, took a bath today, but it was still only a fraction of what I made last week being long these certain names. Today felt like an opex shakeout and saw a lot of deep itm put sellers in tech today. Not worried yet, but will have to watch and see how the week unfolds.

I'll say it one last time for posterity's sake, but buying a broad basket of diversified stocks (i.e. spy) is likely locking in a negative to very low return for the next ten years. I can't even think of a scenario where I could justify buying the ndx or holding a growth heavy portfolio.

I'm still short and my timing could be ****, but unless the world and markets drastically change the risk reward is heavily skewed in favor of the bears for at least a few years.

I don't think markets roll over but you need to watch for key levels of support and start de-risking at resistance. This was very fomo and foolish.

Anything under 295 spy and you need to worry big time.

The fed is still buying loads of assets. You would be better off gambling on BTC

Damn myself bought 20 of spy $318 puts for $.014 today In my fun money account and had to go into a meeting and sold for $.40, missed out on $4 had I waited 20 minutes

Coordi/djevans

Thanks for the responses ,

I agree was very fomo/way too big sizing, not sure what gets into me sometimes

I won’t chase it if it goes down in the morning. I’ll set some stops to sell majority of the position and let it ride small amount

Re tobacco:
So the short thesis is...
1. Lots of customers will die from Covid
2. Others will stop smoking out of fear of death
So demand will plummet...

That’s a horrible thesis imo.

Not only does that ignore other revenue streams other posters have mentioned, but even focusing on cigarettes seems like a stupid take.

IMO, odds are the stress of worldwide plague, economic uncertainty and physical lockdowns mean smokers will collectively be smoking FAR more than they were.

Everyone has leaks. Some people double down/martingale a lot when trades go against them because they fear/despise the idea of losing.

Odds are that leak has happened before right?

I’d spend a while imagining taking a full loss on the optiona. What would you do/how would it feel? Then I’d move up my stop loss plan much higher for tomorrow. I’d use the opportunity to take the L with over 90% of your account intact as a learning opportunity. If successful, that lesson is worth well over 30k.