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2020 Stock Trading Thread 2020 Stock Trading Thread

02-18-2020 , 02:47 PM
It's acting almost exactly like fsly when it was getting squeezed. Just take your winnings and move on. Highly likely you will get ****ing rekt
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02-18-2020 , 02:54 PM
So $SPCE just made a 30% move up and down

On track to trade more than half the share count today
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02-18-2020 , 03:31 PM
looks like standard blow off to me, selling anything over 35 probably a gift
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02-18-2020 , 03:44 PM
Shuffle,
You had a great buy, hold and sell with SPCE but getting greedy now. This is following the standard trash penny stock pump fourth day gap up and crash. Move on to greener pastures imo. Guys I know who make it their living to short this trash shorted this stock today for the first time.
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02-18-2020 , 03:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brass
Just an update on things: You'll recall that I called out Je$ter (who has since crawled into a hole of shame) when he said the market would tank back when the S&P was at 3283. I said that by 3/1/20 it would be higher than 3283--looking pretty good.

I also said a couple days ago that we were at an inflection point for the death rate, despite the change in diagnosis criteria and the addition of all those backlogged cases. I had to weather a lot of unfair screeching in this thread for that claim.

Deaths over the past four days:
143, 143, 106, 98.

Those in this thread who owe me apologies, take note.
Uh, sir, this is a Wendy's.
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02-18-2020 , 04:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brass
I also said a couple days ago that we were at an inflection point for the death rate, despite the change in diagnosis criteria and the addition of all those backlogged cases. I had to weather a lot of unfair screeching in this thread for that claim.

Deaths over the past four days:
143, 143, 106, 98.

Those in this thread who owe me apologies, take note.
You are at the peak of Mount Stupid.

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02-18-2020 , 04:54 PM
very very tempted to yolo some TSLA july 400 puts in the 890-920 region,

also scouting a big cgc swing via april 32, but tough to time considering how many paths it could take out of this range. think it wants to move up, and think it will do so quickly

Last edited by As1an1nvas1on; 02-18-2020 at 05:02 PM. Reason: different tsla option
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02-18-2020 , 05:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by As1an1nvas1on
very very tempted to yolo some TSLA july 400 puts in the 890-920 region,
This isn't even a YOLO, Q1 should be absolutely awful, and that's without even counting just a standard return to normalcy.

Jan 2020 $300 puts are only a little more than July 2020 $400 puts though, and better value imo, a lot more time for crap to go wrong or it to simply correct to non high-on-speed price.

Also, absolutely no point waiting for the $900 region, the put prices will be the same or even higher.
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02-19-2020 , 11:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
Damn, my +50% y/y palladium price target has now been reached in February. Up another +10% after hours.
Palladium = PALL?
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02-19-2020 , 12:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
This isn't even a YOLO, Q1 should be absolutely awful, and that's without even counting just a standard return to normalcy.

Jan 2020 $300 puts are only a little more than July 2020 $400 puts though, and better value imo, a lot more time for crap to go wrong or it to simply correct to non high-on-speed price.

Also, absolutely no point waiting for the $900 region, the put prices will be the same or even higher.
ya, youre right on the Jan 21s. thanks

havent pulled the T yet, looks like this thing could gap either way tomorrows open

long SQ this morning
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02-19-2020 , 12:32 PM
missed the overnight palladium move but it's starting to act like a blown-out commodity. huuuuge spreads and huge moves.

on the corona front, 2 cases and 2 deaths reported in iran.
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02-19-2020 , 12:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by As1an1nvas1on
ya, youre right on the Jan 21s. thanks

havent pulled the T yet, looks like this thing could gap either way tomorrows open

long SQ this morning
ok im in

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
missed the overnight palladium move but it's starting to act like a blown-out commodity. huuuuge spreads and huge moves.

on the corona front, 2 cases and 2 deaths reported in iran.
how would you trade it?
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02-19-2020 , 03:35 PM
Tesla puts are a months long game. They're pure 0 EV gambling for shorter term at these levels.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 02-19-2020 at 03:41 PM.
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02-19-2020 , 04:06 PM
Almost all out SPCE here, still want to hold a tiny bit considering everyone and their mother is short yet stock is holding up well. Got into ALGN stock today too on the SDC news as well. Only real short term trading positions I have on right now
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02-19-2020 , 04:23 PM
Shuffle, you keep repeating that this is driven by Fed repo money. You should really educate yourself about what exactly repo is and who uses it. Hint: it's not a way to lever up stock trades.
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02-19-2020 , 04:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
Have to disagree with you, Tooth. TSLA puts aren't a bet on some fundamental decline in the company, revenue, profits, guidance, anything like that. They are a bet on the stock having been a pump-and-dump scam with the Fed repo money, a scheme manipulating the price higher, followed by a rapid, sudden, and breathtaking collapse.

For longer dated puts, yeah maybe BK or 250s or something like that are good value. Not sure about much higher than that.
Exactly how long do you think insane bubbles take to pop? Look at TLRY - it took months to return from crazy highs to 5% of its former value. But it did. The Internet bubble crap stocks went on for a year near highs.

Long dated has 10 bagger return if it drops quickly and plenty of outs if it doesn't. If you think you can do better (higher EV) with short dated be my guest, but I think it's quite likely shorted dated vol is -EV here.

This is from a guy who hasn't traded long dated in years and is a short dated trader. I'm just seeing the fast capitulation you're wanting, especially since you need a massive capitulation just to stay even with the vol that will drop out if it dives.
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02-19-2020 , 05:30 PM
Not going to look at the IV on TSLA options but I can't imagine that it's low. Why not just short the underlying? Are the borrow costs that high?

What is the appeal of the puts in this instance? Seems like aysmmetric moves are substantially lessened buying puts right now.
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02-20-2020 , 12:34 PM
Lol, wtf just happened?? Everything blew off. I don't see any news.

Saved some of my strangle spreads on Tesla
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02-20-2020 , 12:35 PM
Everyone is long. No one is hedged.

A lot of new traders are going to learn a lot about themselves over the next couple months.
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02-20-2020 , 12:43 PM
Well that was fun.
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02-20-2020 , 01:03 PM
Doubled my ES short at 3554. Going to start going for size over the next few days if market keeps acting right.
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02-20-2020 , 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by coordi
Lol, wtf just happened?? Everything blew off. I don't see any news.

Saved some of my strangle spreads on Tesla
i think some options expiry tomorrow led to marketmakers getting nervous and it sorta got into a feedback loop for a nice flashy
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02-21-2020 , 10:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by turtletom
Doubled my ES short at 3554. Going to start going for size over the next few days if market keeps acting right.
SOld a bigger chunk at 3555. HUge position on now with average around 3345
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02-21-2020 , 02:35 PM
Whoever puts a bid in right now is crazy.
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02-21-2020 , 02:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rand
Whoever puts a bid in right now is crazy.
Whoever put in a bid for the past two weeks was crazy.
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