2020 Stock Trading Thread - Page 24 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

This is working out well. Did my first bit of selling today but still think it’s going much higher. Rotated some money into CGC March calls just now too. In this market we could see dumb money piling back into the highly shorted weed space.

Thanks for posting this, gonna take a look at it. You seem to have really good picks in stocks - anything else you like right now?

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02-17-2020 , 02:14 PM

#577

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Short all the crap this year (this is moving against me about 1% since pre-open so entry is fine). 100% short.

AMZN
CMG
FB
MU
NFLX
TLRY
TSLA
WYNN
DGLY
GBTC

As of last Friday:

AMZN 12.48%
CMG 7.43%
FB 2.10%
MU 5.61%
NFLX 15.34%
TLRY 6.04%
TSLA 85.94%
WYNN 7.89%
DGLY 16.50%
GBTC 65.51%

If you had this portfolio with all stocks having the same weight you would have torched 28.2% by now.

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02-17-2020 , 02:38 PM

#578

coordi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 22,844

Did you even make picks??

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02-17-2020 , 02:45 PM

#579

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by coordi

Did you even make picks??

TSLA and SPY. I haven't disclosed SPY, it's also not a big position but I have been long TSLA since $251 last year.

But that's just a distraction from what we should be looking at, since I am not claiming to be a baller super super awesome trader. Also since my sample size is a lot smaller I could just be lucky, but it's much less likely for 10 picks to be unlucky with 9 of them being the opposite. If he went long on all those stocks he would have outperformed SPY lol

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02-17-2020 , 03:01 PM

#580

coordi

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Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 22,844

I thought this was the stock picking contest.

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02-17-2020 , 03:04 PM

#581

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

And I just thought people should see the performance of a certain picker

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02-17-2020 , 03:25 PM

#582

the pleasure

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 6,093

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelvis

damn

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02-17-2020 , 05:32 PM

#583

stinkypete

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 15,783

Best site for coronavirus data?

Eg. would like to see growth of # of cases outside china day by day

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02-17-2020 , 06:10 PM

#584

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

Quote:

Originally Posted by stinkypete

Best site for coronavirus data?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ation-reports/

Quote:

Originally Posted by stinkypete

Eg. would like to see growth of # of cases outside china day by day

I assume the large spike yesterday is due to treating the cruise ship as a discrete location outside of China or any other country (it had been in accounting limbo).

Last edited by despacito; 02-17-2020 at 06:20 PM.

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02-17-2020 , 06:42 PM

#585

thorleif

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,427

Quote:

Originally Posted by despacito

I assume the large spike yesterday is due to treating the cruise ship as a discrete location outside of China or any other country (it had been in accounting limbo).

I don't think that's correct, raw data from the Johns Hopkins map dashboard is available here: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

Diamond Princess is showing case data since Feb 7. Today's data should be updated within a few hours which would allow one to drill down on the spike

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02-17-2020 , 06:45 PM

#586

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelvis

As of last Friday:
If you had this portfolio with all stocks having the same weight you would have torched 28.2% by now.

Um, this is a post for the 2020 trading contest, which is a bet on where stocks will be at exactly Jan 1, 2021. You have to enter at Dec 31, 2019. It has no relevance to trading. It simply got posted in the wrong thread:

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Posted this in the wrong thread. That was for the 2020 stock contest, not a trading recommendation.

I wasn't suggesting them as trades, short GBTC isn't even a possible/viable trade due to the borrow costs, nor is DGLY or a number of others.

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02-17-2020 , 08:13 PM

#587

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

Quote:

Originally Posted by thorleif

Open to being wrong about this but if you look at the daily reports on github they shifted Diamond Princess from Province/State to Country today. Also cannot see that many new cases coming from another source.

Yesterday:

Today:

Last edited by despacito; 02-17-2020 at 08:20 PM.

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02-17-2020 , 08:36 PM

#588

thorleif

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,427

The chart has been adjusted since you initially posted; looks like they were probably double counting the cruise ship on Feb 17th in the chart earlier

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02-17-2020 , 08:39 PM

#589

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

Agreed.

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02-17-2020 , 08:56 PM

#590

ToothSayer

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Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

The world is very stable for infections (few new ones) with the exceptions of Japan (excluding the ship), Singapore and Hong Kong, which have local self sustaining outbreaks rapidly growing.

If the 450 on the cruise tells us anything (from one asymptomatic man), it's that this is incredibly contagious and probably not containable. Ships are virus factories but even so, those numbers are amazing. And less than half tested. If these 450 were out in the community, how many would be tested? There are 4 serious ones and the rest are too new for major symptoms. I'm guessing we've caught 1 in 10 to 1 in 100 global cases at this point.

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02-17-2020 , 09:19 PM

#591

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

The figure in HK is too low imo, given the fluidity of the border with China and its population density. Hope it is correct, but expect it is undershooting by 500% or more.

Japan is implementing measures and seems to be assuming there will be an outbreak (companies are adopting telecommuting, public gatherings are being discouraged, Tokyo marathon cancelled except for pro runners, and everyone is wearing masks, doctors and hospitals received a 100-page protocol for handling suspected cases on the weekend). Not yet a formal quarantine. Already an economic disaster there.

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02-17-2020 , 10:10 PM

#592

ToothSayer

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Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Japan was -6% on their GDP last quarter, they were supposed to post a recovery this quarter. Not looking good. The Japanese don't need much excuse to be non-spending celibate homebodies these days.

For HK (and Singapore) the interesting stat is the serious/critical rate. Definitely undershooting by a lot given how high these are; there's definitely sustained spread in those countries. Singapore in particular is interesting in that the virus is spreading in a tropical country at 85 Farenheit with 100% humidity; the hope was that spring in the Northern Hemisphere would cause transmission to cease like it does with the flu.

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02-17-2020 , 11:31 PM

#593

despacito

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,369

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

I don't think I can stress this enough. There is no correlation between economic growth and asset prices. Japan's GDP could be -90% next quarter, and their stock market could still be up 10,000% in the same time period.

I politely assert the opposite is true in the long-run.

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02-18-2020 , 08:23 AM

#594

turtletom

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 1,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

I'm proud to say I have lived long enough to see gold bug arguments proliferate among retail stock traders. These are amazing times.

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02-18-2020 , 11:10 AM

#595

As1an1nvas1on

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 4,352

added more NFLX, think Kroger setting up for a 20% move.. pull an RH

Quote

02-18-2020 , 11:11 AM

#596

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

In the modern world, inflation goes into stocks, not gold. It took the gold bugs about 10 years to figure that out

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02-18-2020 , 11:18 AM

#597

Onlydo2days

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Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,305

Real Estate too

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02-18-2020 , 01:02 PM

#598

ToothSayer

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Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Bought 100 Tuesday SPY 336 puts for 78c average. Risk off into the weekend + bad weekend news by Tuesday fairly probable

I'm out these for 95c because I have to go out, but the market may well have more downside from here.

Quote

02-18-2020 , 01:27 PM

#599

twelve yr old

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 1,867

I sold a big chunk of SPCE calls here, 2/3 out now. I'll hold the last 1/3 until we see some clear short capitulation/panic, not there yet

Quote

02-18-2020 , 02:31 PM

#600

Brass

centurion

Join Date: May 2019 Posts: 100

Just an update on things: You'll recall that I called out Je$ter (who has since crawled into a hole of shame) when he said the market would tank back when the S&P was at 3283. I said that by 3/1/20 it would be higher than 3283--looking pretty good.

I also said a couple days ago that we were at an inflection point for the death rate, despite the change in diagnosis criteria and the addition of all those backlogged cases. I had to weather a lot of unfair screeching in this thread for that claim.

Deaths over the past four days:
143, 143, 106, 98.

Those in this thread who owe me apologies, take note.

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