Yeah it's a solid bet. Not the 3% but general rate weakness. 2018 was a wholesale move to bonds on the expectation of rate rises - which caused large money flows out of the market going into year end - at which point the fed freaked out and backtracked on all rate rises and signalled as painfully carefully as possible that "we were just kidding guys! We ain't gonna raise if the market drops and we might even drop and do more QE if necessary").

Meanwhile, we have the IMF openly talking about how to get to -4% rates. That's a minus sign, folks.

https://blogs.imf.org/2019/02/05/cas...st-rates-work/

Any thoughts on which companies will get the wall contracts? Maybe even a sector ETF would be in play.

What is Shuffle reading/smoking?

joshsp, how how long have you been following hlyk? Please offer any insights you'd like to share. thanks!

doubled down on EA calls

Great relative strength on gold. Still holding the leveraged ETF $UGL and $CDE. On another note it looks like Puru Saxena is back on Twitter @Saxena_Puru. I like his macro takes.

My gold stocks of choice are GCM.TO and DPM.TO. Good thread on GCM.TO on Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax.

These moves in KHC & STMP are fun, two of the worst managed quarters I've ever seen in my limited years following reports... all in one AH session.

KHC- cuts dividend, being investigated by SEC, horrible guide down and earnings miss.

STMP- basically cuts earnings guidance in half, executives selling huge portions of stock while buying back above $200 for shareholders knowing this cut was around the corner.

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German 10 year yield back below .1% yield this morning, UK/France hitting YTD lows... good luck with that inflation Shuffle.

There was very little options activity especially short term for STMP (unlike KHC which had a ton of put flow in March/April expirations that almost all hit the OI over the last month) but one trade from yesterday/today stands out just to show the power of hitting the lotto in the options market (whether this is disaster insurance or whatever doesn't matter)...

This was a straight purchase that all hit the OI this morning: 2:37pm yesterday someone buys a virtually insignificant 50 $138 puts for $.07 or $350 outlay (stock closed at $198.08 yesterday with a single day to expiration). Today right before the close at 3:37pm sells to close all 50 for $53.1 or $265,500 before fees. Nice life or nice save, either way.

Shuffle, seriously, you don't know what you're talking about and no offence, but your posts are kinda annoying.

Hahah me get a clue? Aren't you a perma bear on equities since at least 2015? Maybe you'll be right this time with your 5% 10-yr yield target in 12-18 months.

How is the bond market getting boiled like a frog? Treasuries have been sideways since their massive rally in Nov-Dec, and corporate have been rallying this year. And just because the Fed wants to see higher inflation, does not mean it will occur (as it's been for years). The Fed's higher inflation target is the nail in the coffin that they have currently have no intention of raising rates this year, killing any uncertainty. And the longer inflation stays muted despite the Fed's target, the less likely we'll see rate hikes even going into 2020.

And I'm not even going to comment on your "cash crunch" doomsday drivel. Maybe you should've linked your true source: Zerohedge (just guessing).

I'm long HK from 1.80 and considering doubling down heavily if it drops some more.

1. There was a VIC write up about it last year.
2. The stock was close to 5 in September, then plummeted down to 1.58 with the market bottom late december. Currently, price seems far below asset value. RE alone should be worth double minimum. In addition, they are hedged for low oil ideally in the low 50s, which was a good move.

Here's the interesting stuff:
1. A month ago, Fir Tree Capital, which owns 7.2% of HK, sent a letter demanding, among other things, a board shake up, reducing G&A costs, and calling out the CEO for wild overpays. They also demanded appointing leadership who would look to sell the company.
2. A few days ago, the CEO and CFO both resigned. This is a pretty big deal.
3. At the same time, they are late in reporting their earnings, so it's a big red flag that they are stepping down given that we don't know how bad things may actually be currently.
4. The stock price reacted negatively to the CEO/CFO resignations, which prompted a new public letter from Fir Tree saying "good move, but ppl are selling b/c it's not clear you are committed to selling the company."


My gut tells me that HK will have a happier ending. I think the earnings won't be a catastrophe due to the hedges already set up prior quarters. I think the CEO resigning was from the Fir Tree pressure and recognizing that as a huge stock owner, a new direction will ultimately make him money. I don't think it's because secretly the company is much worse off than we assumed. I think Fir Tree is going to induce a management change that will lead to a sale this year, and we are talking a min of 100% to 250% stock appreciation.
In addition, the China deal will prob boost oil in the short term.

Any thoughts?

He's calling you a moron and he's not wrong. Shuffle listen to grim or I'll bump all of your posts from the December lows, literally no one wants your rantings in here.

How's that 4% 10 year prediction working out for Gundlach btw? Lmao.

I'm short RUN from 15.95 heading into earnings.

In addition, I think the market is going to pull back some or take a break now that its reached 280. I find it difficult to believe it is just going to rip straight up to ATH, which suddenly is only 5+% away.

Is selling the NIO $15 calls March 15 for .15 - .20 free money or does that actually have a chance to hit?

shuffle can u start a seperate thread about the economy crashing/recession por favor.

Earnings+lockup expiration+zero borrow

Take your chances, but you may get TLRYd

Quantify please the criteria for a breakout. Given the magnitude of the breakout, is it possible to determine a sell price? Perhaps you have to wait until there is sufficient resistance to further price appreciation. If so can you quantify how to determine if there is sufficient resistance?

Regarding GDP, GDP for the 4th QTR came in at 2.6% down from the 3rd QTR.

Why is that a “super hot” number?


Regarding the “super hot” PMI:USA Manufacturing PMI Slumps to 17 month low

This story is dated last week. Perhaps you are referring to some other PMI.

6 bps this week and 10bps in the last 3 days? Yeah, permabear Shuffle's 5% yield by the end of this year is starting to become real convincing . Even if 10-year is 25bps higher in the next few weeks and it would still be a cool story bro.

No man, it's tilting seeing someone who knows the least but chirp the most.

Market cap is already 10 billion. 15 billion would be $15. I would be very surprised if they make $5 billion in market cap in 2 weeks but you never know

Updates:

HK: Bought 50% more at 1.48-1.5. New breakeven 1.70. Still feeling good long term and holding. Hoping that base of 1.45-1.50 holds so i dont have to deal with the emotional trama of adding more

RUN: Earnings were mixed. EPS is a joke and really casts a shadow on the increased revenues IMO. I'm holding short still and will reevaluate if it breaks the ATH in high 16s or I find something that is more attractive with that money. I also think it's a good play for a heavier than average drop from here if the market has a pullback. We'll see.

Has anybody researched the LYFT and UBER upcoming IPO's? I think Lyft is this month the week of the 18th. I'm going to try and read the Lyft prospectus. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...d633517ds1.htm On Uber it seems from some articles I read their trucking business is actually profitable. I wonder when and if either company will actually be profitable. Especially as it seems Uber is trying to invest and spread out so much like into self driving vehicles. Anybody know what market share Uber Eats has currently and its growth rates?