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Old 02-14-2019, 12:12 AM   #201
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Yes. Look at how vol selling or holding XIV went for those particular martingalers in 2018.
Trading a ****ty product and martingaling are two separate things.

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Betting $1 billion to double my initial 50c bet that ran against me isn't my idea of a good time.
Grade A level thinking. If you're betting $2B to win back your initial $1, that means you're in a 1 in a ~billion situation (assuming 50-50 win/lose). You're more likely to die tomorrow than ever be in that situation.
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Old 02-14-2019, 12:43 AM   #202
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Trading a ****ty product and martingaling are two separate things.
Short vol is a ****ty product? More stupid analysis from an incompetent trader. And I'm talking about the guys who kept putting on more and more of the short vol trade in a martingale-like trade and eventually blew up accounts and even firms in Jan/Feb 2018. Hence the words "those particular martingalers". Jesus.
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Grade A level thinking. If you're betting $2B to win back your initial $1, that means you're in a 1 in a ~billion situation (assuming 50-50 win/lose). You're more likely to die tomorrow than ever be in that situation.
Yeah except markets aren't structured like that so your assumptions are irrelevant. Tail run events that destroy a martingale strategy are not only not extremely rare but also expected eventually. Grade D level thinking from you.
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Old 02-14-2019, 01:11 AM   #203
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Short vol is a ****ty product? More stupid analysis from an incompetent trader.
No dumbass, it's a ****ty product because it's a fragile inverse ETN. It's made for broke traders like you who can't trade the underlying futures or are too dumb to replicate a similar position themselves.

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incompetent trader.
lol. Good job making a fool out yourself in the Brian thread. We all know you're not a trader* and have tiny balls.

Spoiler:


edit: But you're right, I'm partially incompetent. Sold my NQ futures around 6600-6700 and look where they are now. But not at nearly as incompetent as you, calling me an idiot for not selling at 6250.

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Old 02-14-2019, 01:19 AM   #204
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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No dumbass, it's a ****ty product because it's a fragile inverse ETN.
You say after the fact.
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It's made for broke traders like you who can't trade the underlying futures or are too dumb to replicate a similar position themselves.
Seriously? Once again you show total ignorance. Guys with tens of millions in buy power were in XIV for size. They blew up firms. We have a guy on 2p2 who that happened to (not him, his firm). You'd know that if you're weren't some solo reject who occasionally plays index futures badly for small size.

And I'm certain I have/trade more than you after your comical/sad post with your NQ, which seems to be all you trade, and badly at that.

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lol. Good job making a fool out yourself in the Brian thread. We all know you're not a trader* and have tiny balls.

Spoiler:
If by "we" you mean "youself and an antifa loser", then sure.

Nice attempt to red herring the fact that you are at least 1.5 standard deviations behind everyone here in reading comprehension and displayed that yet again with your idiotic and pointless commentary about martingaling that completely missed the point that everyone who isn't retarded understood. It's comical how often and how frequently you fail to understand basic points and make dumb posts as a result.

You came out here swinging and got owned because you're seriously mentally deficient at reading comprehension and are provably a ****ty/non-trader from your own screenshots. Move along, clown. And try to say something useful, for everyone else's sake. Thanks.
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edit: But you're right, I'm partially incompetent. Sold my NQ futures around 6600-6700 and look where they are now. But not at nearly as incompetent as you, calling me an idiot for not selling at 6250.
This is just more of your retard-level reading comprehension. You are (in all seriousness) worse at reading comprehension than any single person on this forum. You should do something about it as it's going to limit your life in many ways.
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Old 02-14-2019, 03:54 AM   #205
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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You say after the fact.
Owning a fund that invests most of its capital shorting VIX at all times, even when it's at decade lows at sub 10 levels. What could go wrong?

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Seriously? Once again you show total ignorance. Guys with tens of millions in buy power were in XIV for size. They blew up firms. We have a guy on 2p2 who that happened to (not him, his firm).
Yeah, and they're stupid if they're holding it under a year. The only advantage of holding XIV instead of trading the futures is if you plan to hold it for at least year to get long term capital gains. Otherwise, as I said, you're either broke or an idiot for trading XIV short term. Same goes for SPY.

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You'd know that if you're weren't some solo reject who occasionally plays index futures badly for small size.
Hmm, swing trading 7 NQ was a little under $1M in notional. How does that compare to your $37 SPY option trading? Big mouth, tiny balls. Funny how incoherent you get when you're on tilt.

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If by "we" you mean "youself and an antifa loser", then sure.
Having an open brokerage account doesn't make you a trader. We (as in most active people in that thread) were just looking at the facts. You came up with 1 (random) trade in an entire year that you took based on some random news. Again, big mouth, no trades. Anyway, not going to beat a dead horse.

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Nice attempt to red herring the fact that you are at least 1.5 standard deviations behind everyone here in reading comprehension and displayed that yet again with your idiotic and pointless commentary about martingaling that completely missed the point that everyone who isn't retarded understood. It's comical how often and how frequently you fail to understand basic points and make dumb posts as a result.
And you missed my point.

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You came out here swinging and got owned because you're seriously mentally deficient at reading comprehension and are provably a ****ty/non-trader from your own screenshots. Move along, clown. And try to say something useful, for everyone else's sake. Thanks.
When all fails, just throw a bunch random insults. What happened to "cuck"? Did that go out of style? You need some new material. Try some coffee or pot.

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This is just more of your retard-level reading comprehension. You are (in all seriousness) worse at reading comprehension than any single person on this forum. You should do something about it as it's going to limit your life in many ways.
Did you not say I was an "idiot" for not selling at ~6250, when I made clear I was swing trading it and shooting for at least 6600? You even said that it was freeroll for the bears, but of course you didn't take a trade. How ironic you call a trade a freeroll but don't take it in your own trading bet thread.
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Old 02-14-2019, 04:16 AM   #206
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Owning a fund that invests most of its capital shorting VIX at all times, even when it's at decade lows at sub 10 levels. What could go wrong?
Again with the ****ty reading comprehension. Traders in these firms were martingaling short vol via XIV and other products as it blew up. They weren't "investing most of their capital shorting VIX at all times". It's like you don't even know what traders do. It worked great for years with nice returns. Which was why I brought it up. As a good example of market martingaling gone wrong. That went right over your head like most of what you read (you are seriously bottom 10% in reading comprehension) and here we are.
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Yeah, and they're stupid if they're holding it under a year. The only advantage of holding XIV instead of trading the futures is if you plan to hold it for at least year to get long term capital gains. Otherwise, as I said, you're either broke or an idiot for trading XIV short term. Same goes for SPY.
No one should ever listen to anything you say (not that they do anyway). XIV had a different risk/reward profile thanks to the daily rebalance. Lots of reasons to trade it over futures for lots of scenarios, and indeed plenty of professional traders preferred it. This is just you being a one trick pony (you posted your screenshot with NQ and zero other trades for days) and being so ignorant that you think the way you do it is the right way.
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Did you not say I was an "idiot" for not selling at ~6250, when I made clear I was swing trading it and shooting for at least 6600? You even said that it was freeroll for the bears, but of course you didn't take a trade. How ironic you call a trade a freeroll but don't take it in your own trading bet thread.
Your reading comprehension is so ****ing gone (or maybe your understanding of trading) that you're still quadrupling down on being wrong on what was said.
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Old 02-14-2019, 11:44 AM   #207
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Again with the ****ty reading comprehension. Traders in these firms were martingaling short vol via XIV and other products as it blew up. They weren't "investing most of their capital shorting VIX at all times". It's like you don't even know what traders do. It worked great for years with nice returns. Which was why I brought it up. As a good example of market martingaling gone wrong. That went right over your head like most of what you read (you are seriously bottom 10% in reading comprehension) and here we are.
Dumbass, XIV is a fund that invests most of its capital shorting the VIX. That's what I referring to.

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No one should ever listen to anything you say (not that they do anyway). XIV had a different risk/reward profile thanks to the daily rebalance. Lots of reasons to trade it over futures for lots of scenarios, and indeed plenty of professional traders preferred it. This is just you being a one trick pony (you posted your screenshot with NQ and zero other trades for days) and being so ignorant that you think the way you do it is the right way.
Dumbass, XIV was constructed from the futures market which any trader can replicate.
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Old 02-14-2019, 12:13 PM   #208
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Dumbass, XIV is a fund that invests most of its capital shorting the VIX. That's what I referring to.
This isn't true hence the confusion.
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Dumbass, XIV was constructed from the futures market which any trader can replicate.
Most traders can't replicate XIV because they don't have access to low cost swaps and the daily rebalancing is very expensive. It has a completely different risk and performance profile to what a trader could manage with just futures. But you're too much of a low-resolution dumbass to understand that. So let me put in picture format since you have trouble reading.



Understand? Of course you don't, you're a complete idiot and your "hurr durr I trade futures anyone who trades anything else is broke or stupid!" routine shows an embarrassing lack of understanding of what traders do and why, not to mention a total lack of curiosity.

Again, professional traders with far more money than you trade were using XIV over futures or SVXY. According to you they did that is because they're "broke". I think you're just an incurious idiot.
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Old 02-14-2019, 12:53 PM   #209
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Man you guys are retarted
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Old 02-14-2019, 06:20 PM   #210
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Most traders can't replicate XIV because they don't have access to low cost swaps and the daily rebalancing is very expensive.
Really? How expensive is to roll a VX future per day? And how does that compare to extra taxes you have to shovel out if you trade ETNs?


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Again, professional traders with far more money than you trade were using XIV over futures or SVXY. According to you they did that is because they're "broke". I think you're just an incurious idiot.
Sure, arbitragers and long term holders. Otherwise you're an idiot, broke or too lazy if you're not taking the tax advantage futures offers.

Btw, how much money did have after XIV was liquidated?
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Old 02-15-2019, 03:14 PM   #211
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

I'm still watching short UST bond trade.

China total credit #'s for last month were almost 40% above expectations, far and away new all-time highs. Chinext technology market was up 7% this week and many speculative junk stocks were up more than 50% in a few days. At the same time, the ECB is now proposing a new TLRTO and Fed is discussing not only ending balance sheet reduction, but also permanent and regular balance sheet expansion, while the U.S. fiscal gap is accelerating and should outpace projections for the year.

The 5Y breakeven inflation rate is moving higher again, up ~10 bps this week and nearly 30 bps from the lows. It should be above 2% again this spring while all of this deficit spending and monetary easing is going on. So I would once again look for accelerating inflation expectations and an adverse shock in the bond markets during Q2. The current data from December and January is a lagging indicator in my opinion as this monstrous credit binge has only accelerated in the past few weeks.
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Old 02-15-2019, 03:26 PM   #212
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

What accelerating inflation expectations? Stop trying to sound smart/clever when you ignore plenty of other indicators that show the exact opposite. Increase in asset prices has accompanied both rising debt levels/lower rates which you keep ignoring and this is a decades long trend. Not to mention all the recent weak retail data and China saying overnight their inflation continued to slow in January.
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Old 02-15-2019, 03:38 PM   #213
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

China new loans all-time record. 3x from December to January:

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...dgates-january

Fed 5Y breakeven inflation rate:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE

Pretty sure that is the best measure of future inflation expectations according to Bernanke and Yellen. It's 20 bps higher than when the Fed hiked in December, and now they are going to ease! lol

The implication would be that inflation will accelerate this year, taking UST yields along for the ride.

(at least until Powell throws down the hammer like he did in October...rock and hard place)

The most recent Dec-Jan economic data will probably be a lagging indicator that starts to turn in February and March. Eventually the new credit explosion will work into the economy but not likely to have much effect on GDP. As economists like to call it, it's all bad and wasteful debt at the end of an economic cycle.
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Old 02-15-2019, 03:52 PM   #214
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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China new loans all-time record. 3x from December to January:

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...dgates-january

Fed 5Y breakeven inflation rate:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE

Pretty sure that is the best measure of future inflation expectations according to Bernanke and Yellen. It's 20 bps higher than when the Fed hiked in December, and now they are going to ease! lol

The implication would be that inflation will accelerate this year, taking UST yields along for the ride.

(at least until Powell throws down the hammer like he did in October...rock and hard place)

The most recent Dec-Jan economic data will probably be a lagging indicator that starts to turn in February and March. Eventually the new credit explosion will work into the economy but not likely to have much effect on GDP. As economists like to call it, it's all bad and wasteful debt at the end of an economic cycle.
The December-January increase is largely seasonal, check out the spike in the previous three years which were all pretty similar in China. I absolutely think you are wrong about what will come out of the February-March reads/a big credit explosion but we will see.
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Old 02-15-2019, 03:58 PM   #215
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

There are so many variables here Shuffle. I'm in the "wait for **** to happen" camp. If it's all going to be as catastrophic as you say you have heaps of time to make insane money. The tails won't be properly priced in until a long time after it starts moving.

In the meantime, sit back and enjoy the show of a strong US economy and the fed desperately pumping the market as hard it can whenever it corrects a meaningful amount.
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Old 02-16-2019, 12:05 PM   #216
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Man you guys are retarted
LOL
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Old 02-18-2019, 05:52 PM   #217
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

If US 10 year yield ends the year above 3% I'd be shocked. Not that Shuffle cares, but I'm willing to bet my account here that it won't happen. If anything, I think it's more likely we end up below 2.50% (and an inverted curve) than above 3%.
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Old 02-18-2019, 06:00 PM   #218
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Yeah it's a solid bet. Not the 3% but general rate weakness. 2018 was a wholesale move to bonds on the expectation of rate rises - which caused large money flows out of the market going into year end - at which point the fed freaked out and backtracked on all rate rises and signalled as painfully carefully as possible that "we were just kidding guys! We ain't gonna raise if the market drops and we might even drop and do more QE if necessary").

Meanwhile, we have the IMF openly talking about how to get to -4% rates. That's a minus sign, folks.

https://blogs.imf.org/2019/02/05/cas...st-rates-work/
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Old 02-18-2019, 11:55 PM   #219
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Any thoughts on which companies will get the wall contracts? Maybe even a sector ETF would be in play.
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Old 02-19-2019, 12:02 PM   #220
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

What is Shuffle reading/smoking?
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Old 02-19-2019, 01:02 PM   #221
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

joshsp, how how long have you been following hlyk? Please offer any insights you'd like to share. thanks!
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Old 02-19-2019, 04:49 PM   #222
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

doubled down on EA calls
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Old 02-19-2019, 04:51 PM   #223
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Looking for a breakout on gold here. Consolidation is almost finished. Blue Horseshoe loves GLD.
Great relative strength on gold. Still holding the leveraged ETF $UGL and $CDE. On another note it looks like Puru Saxena is back on Twitter @Saxena_Puru. I like his macro takes.
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Old 02-19-2019, 07:53 PM   #224
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Jupiter, I like the long gold trade right now too.

Last edited by Shuffle; 02-19-2019 at 07:59 PM.
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Old 02-20-2019, 10:19 AM   #225
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

My gold stocks of choice are GCM.TO and DPM.TO. Good thread on GCM.TO on Corner of Berkshire and Fairfax.

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