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Old 02-06-2019, 03:54 AM   #151
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Another thing I noticed is that according to a study in the Wall Street journal last month (January), over half of economists predict a recession in 2020. Fed futures market is ~95% sure rates will be neutral until late this year, and then it starts to price in cuts by late 2019 into 2020, probably forecasting a recession next year as well.

Since most of the market thinks there will be a recession next year, I feel certain that won't come to fruition. Either we're heading into a recession this year 2019 or already in recession now, or stocks are going to have a 2017 crypto-like mania for at least the next few years.
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Old 02-06-2019, 12:06 PM   #152
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

covered a lot of ground there
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Old 02-06-2019, 12:31 PM   #153
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Well if you read between the lines I think we are heading into a recession this year if not already in recession. Obviously nobody will know until it's already happened.

My favorite short right now is $BA with leaps. Here's a company that has basically zero equity, highly leveraged awful balance sheet, bloated dividend, and irresponsible share buyback. They have no cushion heading into a (potential) cyclical downturn, face huge liabilities on Lion Air crash and CA fire, customers canceling orders, etc. and authorized $20 billion share repurchase vs. $13 billion free cash flow. Although I'm just entering, it looks like they did the same gimmick last year, announcing $18 billion repurchase and only following through with $9 billion because they didn't have the money to actually purchase those shares.

The CEO looks to be one of the dumbest executives I've ever seen in industry and could put GE to shame.

Stock price is completely parabolic and at the top of last year's range, and they kept selling me the puts at 20% discount to time value.

Who knows when a mania ends but I think a few thousand on $250 Jan 20's has super EV.
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Old 02-06-2019, 04:59 PM   #154
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
Well if you read between the lines I think we are heading into a recession this year if not already in recession. Obviously nobody will know until it's already happened.

My favorite short right now is $BA with leaps. Here's a company that has basically zero equity, highly leveraged awful balance sheet, bloated dividend, and irresponsible share buyback. They have no cushion heading into a (potential) cyclical downturn, face huge liabilities on Lion Air crash and CA fire, customers canceling orders, etc. and authorized $20 billion share repurchase vs. $13 billion free cash flow. Although I'm just entering, it looks like they did the same gimmick last year, announcing $18 billion repurchase and only following through with $9 billion because they didn't have the money to actually purchase those shares.

The CEO looks to be one of the dumbest executives I've ever seen in industry and could put GE to shame.

Stock price is completely parabolic and at the top of last year's range, and they kept selling me the puts at 20% discount to time value.

Who knows when a mania ends but I think a few thousand on $250 Jan 20's has super EV.
BA is one of my favorite short ideas, but it gets yanked up with any fake news about China trade deals. I've been swing trading it since for now, Algos + Fed >>>>> fundamentals.
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Old 02-06-2019, 05:51 PM   #155
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

I'd been in BA long for years and dumped late last year because of China. Quite surprising to see them ATH.

People love that contractual back log that "guarantees" 5+ years of at least the status quo. It's what got me long 6 years ago
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Old 02-06-2019, 07:49 PM   #156
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Sold a BA strangle before earnings and short the 405 call. My b/e is right here around 410. Just hoping it gets back to 400 so I can take it off for a scratch

BA, AAPL, and IBM are starting to annoy me. Would be nice if the market had any sort of two way action
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Old 02-07-2019, 05:23 PM   #157
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Since most of the market thinks there will be a recession next year, I feel certain that won't come to fruition.
This doesn't make any sense, at least on face value. I think you're short bonds and trying to rationalize a down position. That can be dangerous.
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Old 02-07-2019, 10:32 PM   #158
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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This doesn't make any sense, at least on face value.
I'm not sure how it doesn't make sense. Do you think economists are able to accurately predict recessions 12-18 months in advance?

My point was that if everyone is saying there will be a recession next year, there isn't going to be one next year. There will either be a recession this year, or somehow central banks juice the markets more, and asset prices start doing really crazy cryptocurrency-2017 kinds of things for the next few years, with nothing in between.

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I think you're short bonds and trying to rationalize a down position. That can be dangerous.
My only positions right now are long BA and AMZN leap puts. I don't have any bond positions, but med-long term I think bonds are in a decades long secular bear market.

Re: USTs specifically, what's the bull case here? If central banks boost the markets this year, rates are going higher. And if there's an economic slowdown, sure rates could go lower short-term, but the long end will never be back at the 2016 lows again. The government is going to run a $1 trillion+ deficit this year at the top of a bull market. What will the deficit be in a recession?

$3 trillion?
$5 trillion?

More?
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Old 02-07-2019, 11:11 PM   #159
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Citation needed for most economists predicting a recession
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Old 02-07-2019, 11:12 PM   #160
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Shuffle stop pretending you know anything about the bond market and yields because it's absurdly obvious you don't have a clue (like most of what else you post in BFI). The bull case is the globe is still clearly in a deflationary environment and yields for governments in Europe/Japan continue to back this up. The US 30 year is below 3% but we are in for a bond bear market for decades? Take a look at where yields used to be, this idea inflation AND a move to cash/risk assets away from government debt is going to happen like you predict is insane.
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Old 02-07-2019, 11:24 PM   #161
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Citation needed for most economists predicting a recession
https://www.wsj.com/articles/economi...ng-11547132401
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Old 02-08-2019, 02:16 AM   #162
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

What ASAP said. Way more likely treasuries (10 year or less) rally than fall.

The accuracy is of most economists is irrelevant. It's just noise, nothing to discern out of that.

But if the economists at the Fed are predicting a recession, then surely that's a strong case to buy bonds.
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Old 02-08-2019, 02:24 AM   #163
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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I would like more information on this pump sir
I am not sure who brought the stock to this thread that you are referring to because it looks like he has been booted, but if you are reading this thread Mr Poster......thank you!


The stock he recommended...TVOG, is already up about 100% in 2 days.

In for 550 K shares! Bought at .011 and hit .023 today and closed at .02.

The stock that he connected it to, SHMP, has gone from .01 and hit 42 cents today. Incredible.

If TVOG can do anywhere close to that I am headed to the Bahamas.
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Old 02-08-2019, 03:58 AM   #164
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

TVOG Stock is DEAD you clown, as in it's not even a business any more. Even as pure fraud pump stock it sucks. Congrats bro, you picked the absolute nut low.
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Old 02-08-2019, 09:20 AM   #165
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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TVOG Stock is DEAD you clown, as in it's not even a business any more. Even as pure fraud pump stock it sucks. Congrats bro, you picked the absolute nut low.
Not dead.

It's a shell acquiring new companies in the infrastructure markets.

It's also doubled the past few days.

Friend.
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Old 02-08-2019, 10:10 AM   #166
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Not dead.

It's a shell acquiring new companies in the infrastructure markets.

It's also doubled the past few days.

Friend.
No, it's a shell saying they're acquiring new companies. That's what pump and dump frauds do - put out press releases about acquisitions and sky high future revenue and have losers buy in, and yet other losers pump it up on messageboards and twitter and email to the first set of losers.

TVOG is dead. The end. I had this out with some other moron last year in the 2018 trading thread with IMUN, which was a much more talented and convincing pump. Dude lost all his money. $1M market cap/ 1c penny stocks putting out dodgy press release are for taking advantages of morons and nothing else. Even as a pure pump play goes it's a horrible play.

You've picked the absolute nut low. In the poker word this is 72o dipped in the toilet. Not sure how managed to pick the absolutely nut low but congratulations.
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Old 02-08-2019, 10:18 AM   #167
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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No, it's a shell saying they're acquiring new companies. That's what pump and dump frauds do - put out press releases about acquisitions and sky high future revenue and have losers buy in, and yet other losers pump it up on messageboards and twitter and email to the first set of losers.

TVOG is dead. The end. I had this out with some other moron last year in the 2018 trading thread with IMUN, which was a much more talented and convincing pump. Dude lost all his money. $1M market cap/ 1c penny stocks putting out dodgy press release are for taking advantages of morons and nothing else. Even as a pure pump play goes it's a horrible play.

You've picked the absolute nut low. In the poker word this is 72o dipped in the toilet. Not sure how managed to pick the absolutely nut low but congratulations.
This nut low had news this morning and looking to go much much higher.

SHMP started out at a penny too. Just hit 42 cents with the same finance co.

Funny you mention IMUN.....Oh Noreen.

Half a penny.
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Old 02-08-2019, 10:18 AM   #168
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

You short TVOG tooth?
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Old 02-08-2019, 10:27 AM   #169
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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You short TVOG tooth?
1. Super hard for retail traders to short otc stocks.

2. Not sure how smart it would be to short a company that just announced the same deal with GHS as SHMP had with GHS, which just went from .01 to 42 cents after the GHS deal was announced.
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Old 02-08-2019, 10:45 AM   #170
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

TVOG just hit .038!
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Old 02-08-2019, 11:05 AM   #171
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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This nut low had news this morning and looking to go much much higher.

SHMP started out at a penny too. Just hit 42 cents with the same finance co.

Funny you mention IMUN.....Oh Noreen.

Half a penny.
You're not the IMUN cuck are you? That guy lost his life savings and made an ass of himself trying to get his family and friends (and this board) buying his ****ty penny stock putting out pump PR with no basis in reality.

He got excited when it went up 3x as well, thinking he had a sure thing (in reality there's near zero volume so the 3x is meaningless since you can't take size and you can't exit). Now it's down >90%

Last edited by ToothSayer; 02-08-2019 at 11:27 AM.
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Old 02-08-2019, 11:15 AM   #172
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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You're not the IMUN cuck are you? That guy lost his life savings and made an ass of himself trying to get his family and friends (and this board) buying his ****ty penny stock putting out pump PR with no basis in reality.

He got excited when it went up 3x as well, thinking he had a sure thing (in reality there's near zero volume so the 3x is meaningless since you can't take size and you can't exit).
I already sold TVOG. Cleared about $18 K profit in 2 days. Will wait for a pullback and reload.

I have been trading since I was a kid. Do it for a living. I am sure you would know me on IHUB.

As for IMUN....I also consult with companies and bring in financing. Have had talks with IMUN and Noreen. Obviously the 1 for 1000 RS announcement on the surface looks beyond horrible.

However....there are reasons.....
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Old 02-08-2019, 11:16 AM   #173
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
You're not the IMUN cuck are you? That guy lost his life savings and made an ass of himself trying to get his family and friends (and this board) buying his ****ty penny stock putting out pump PR with no basis in reality.

He got excited when it went up 3x as well, thinking he had a sure thing (in reality there's near zero volume so the 3x is meaningless since you can't take size and you can't exit).
And btw I am not the IMUN cuck...though I may know who it was you are talking about.

I rarely even followed the stock until this past fall.
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Old 02-08-2019, 11:28 AM   #174
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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I already sold TVOG. Cleared about $18 K profit in 2 days. Will wait for a pullback and reload.

I have been trading since I was a kid. Do it for a living. I am sure you would know me on IHUB.

As for IMUN....I also consult with companies and bring in financing. Have had talks with IMUN and Noreen. Obviously the 1 for 1000 RS announcement on the surface looks beyond horrible.

However....there are reasons.....
So you're a penny stock pumper then? Thanks for the admission. The only reason to talk to IMUN as a financer, to even be in that world, is to facilitate or ride on pumps of their stock and sell into pumped offerings.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 02-08-2019 at 11:35 AM.
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Old 02-08-2019, 11:30 AM   #175
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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So you're a penny stock pumper then? Thanks for the admission
No. I am not a promo guy. I don't deal in that.

I trade and try to bring companies together for deals.

That's it.
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