Was an easy short on the pop given guidance.

Is it going to keep dropping iyo? short term

10/31/18 - FB trading in $150's 11/30/18 - FB trading in $140's 12/21/18 - FB trading in the $120's, both fb & snap bottoming around this time

Last 30 days, but not including today's session so tack on a few extra points.

Just in, Tooth calling out all the easy/obvious/freeroll trades after the fact!

That might hurt a little

You are right, you should stick to stocks.

All you are proving by cherry picking those bonds and rambling like an insane person is that rates are up since 2016.... up by 1% from their all time low point.

You need to read up on bonds. Price is not relevant. Yield is. And relevance? Market don't move because price/yield crossed some arbitrarily line.

And proof of "short squeeze"? Bonds rallied last month due to intense recessionary fears.


I'm not going agree or disagree with any of this, but if you believe this, and if you believe Gunlach's recessionary view, then these are actually great reasons to be buying treasuries.

To my original point on why I think shorting bonds (<= 10 year) will hurt, and that's because the market doesn't expect any rate hikes for 2019. If they're wrong, they'll be wrong by 1 or maybe 2, and you might make some money. But if they're right, then you'll see a pop in bonds any time there's a minor recessionary fear, and they're likely will be this year. And even if there isn't, you're shoveling out 2.5%-3.5% in dividends/coupons. But if you absolutely must short bonds, you should at least consider shorting ZN/ZB futures to reduce the coupon/dividend you have to pay out.

Correlations are meaningless without context, e.g. monetary policy, inflation etc. If the recession is accompanied with higher-than-expected inflation, i.e. stagflation, then yes, rates may rise. Otherwise, treasuries will absolutely rally during recessionary panic. I'm not saying there will be 2019, I'm just saying that I don't see a strong case for shorting bonds for the medium term (6-18 months) while you payout the dividends/coupons.

Not applicable. US treasuries have no (perceived) default risk. And I don't think that perception is changing any time soon.

****ing $SNAP can suck my dick and balls. "Hey guys, we cant grow our user base at all, we only burnt $350M this quarter, our CEO is a man child with no idea what's going on and we have no idea how to run a profitable company". Cool, up 20% AH.

Look how they've massacred my puts!

Congratulations btc on SNAP. Hope you made a packet. Before today you'd owned the forum angry old man in every battle of wits and now you've owned him in stock picks as well. Well done. Cue the meltdown.
Any thoughts on where SNAP is going from here, btc? I know you had a stabilization thesis which was reasonable and has now been fully validated; do you have a growth thesis? I don't see it myself but I don't know SNAP well and I was also pretty surprised when FB made a highly successful move to mobile advertising, which is now 94% of their revenue from near 0.

SNAP burned me too. I didn't put much in because I wasn't convinced, but still.

Lol it's a short squeeze, I'm long FB and have never been short SNAP and all my fundemental viewpoints stand from our discussions but nice try.

Yeah, I'm in for <$500 so I'm just having a little fun, but I'm not sure I'll ever understand SNAP.

A worthless company giving less-than-expextedly bad news still doesn't mean it's not a dog**** company. It doesn't seem to have an actual growth plan.

His argument was that it was a better long term bet than FB, hence his we'll revisit this post this time next year in Nov when its above $8 and that FB at $120 was optimistic at best.

Snap's issues aren't in the short term. It will bounce around like a GoPro or Fitbit did several years back based on glimmers of hope of a turnaround each earnings or new feature release. It's the long term that is a disaster, as they aren't growing at all and the current Frat Boy Genius's growth strategy of ageing up and trying to fix android for the 900th time is not likely to bear much fruit.

They are also bleeding talent like crazy which doesn't help them grow.

I would like more information on this pump sir

covered a lot of ground there

BA is one of my favorite short ideas, but it gets yanked up with any fake news about China trade deals. I've been swing trading it since for now, Algos + Fed >>>>> fundamentals.

I'd been in BA long for years and dumped late last year because of China. Quite surprising to see them ATH.

People love that contractual back log that "guarantees" 5+ years of at least the status quo. It's what got me long 6 years ago

Sold a BA strangle before earnings and short the 405 call. My b/e is right here around 410. Just hoping it gets back to 400 so I can take it off for a scratch

BA, AAPL, and IBM are starting to annoy me. Would be nice if the market had any sort of two way action

This doesn't make any sense, at least on face value. I think you're short bonds and trying to rationalize a down position. That can be dangerous.

Citation needed for most economists predicting a recession

Shuffle stop pretending you know anything about the bond market and yields because it's absurdly obvious you don't have a clue (like most of what else you post in BFI). The bull case is the globe is still clearly in a deflationary environment and yields for governments in Europe/Japan continue to back this up. The US 30 year is below 3% but we are in for a bond bear market for decades? Take a look at where yields used to be, this idea inflation AND a move to cash/risk assets away from government debt is going to happen like you predict is insane.

What ASAP said. Way more likely treasuries (10 year or less) rally than fall.

The accuracy is of most economists is irrelevant. It's just noise, nothing to discern out of that.

But if the economists at the Fed are predicting a recession, then surely that's a strong case to buy bonds.

I am not sure who brought the stock to this thread that you are referring to because it looks like he has been booted, but if you are reading this thread Mr Poster......thank you!


The stock he recommended...TVOG, is already up about 100% in 2 days.

In for 550 K shares! Bought at .011 and hit .023 today and closed at .02.

The stock that he connected it to, SHMP, has gone from .01 and hit 42 cents today. Incredible.

If TVOG can do anywhere close to that I am headed to the Bahamas.