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Old 02-01-2019, 07:43 AM   #126
ToothSayer
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Was an easy short on the pop given guidance.
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Old 02-01-2019, 02:09 PM   #127
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Is it going to keep dropping iyo? short term
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Old 02-01-2019, 02:51 PM   #128
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Who knows in the very short term, but it was in a parabolic bubble. I have far otm leap puts. Look at a chart of tulips or bitcoin to see what happens when speculative manias end.
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Old 02-01-2019, 02:53 PM   #129
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Also entered $250 leaps in BA.
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Old 02-01-2019, 05:47 PM   #130
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Just shows how weak your position is that you can't even defend it, would you like me to bump our conversation in the trading thread from November of last year when SNAP was trading pretty much where it is now and FB was at ~$135? There is zero comparison, FB destroyed SNAP and that's only going to continue.
10/31/18 - FB trading in $150's
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Will FB hit $130 before $170?... fb itself is hot garbage.
11/30/18 - FB trading in $140's
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... $120's is an optimistic outlook right now.
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Look at how FB has been trading compared to both SNAP/TWTR lately and with the sentiment completely washed out there is no question which of the three you want to trade and/or invest in.
12/21/18 - FB trading in the $120's, both fb & snap bottoming around this time

Last 30 days, but not including today's session so tack on a few extra points.
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Old 02-01-2019, 11:12 PM   #131
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Was an easy short on the pop given guidance.
Just in, Tooth calling out all the easy/obvious/freeroll trades after the fact!
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Old 02-02-2019, 02:46 AM   #132
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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I have far otm [$AMZN] leap puts.
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Also entered $250 leaps in BA.
These are my only two positions. My other great idea is to short the living hell out of USTs, but that is beyond my pay grade.
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Old 02-02-2019, 01:56 PM   #133
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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My other great idea is to short the living hell out of USTs, but that is beyond my pay grade.
That might hurt a little
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Old 02-02-2019, 04:49 PM   #134
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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That might hurt a little
I disagree. Despite an intense short squeeze last few months, long bonds issued in the last few years are still trading 85-90 cents on the dollar. That kind of carnage is eventually going to spread out over the rest of the curve; indeed treasuries have been in a bear market since 2016 and y/y since 2012 -- something that I think will continue for decades to come.

U.S. fiscal position is rapidly deteriorating, and there is now geopolitical risk to supply chains and market access that hasn't existed in 30 years.

What I think will happen is the long end will blow out first with 10Y over 5% in the next 12-18 months. The Fed will resume its balance sheet expansion towards infinity but only on shorter dated treasuries. This will lead to an enormous credit risk in U.S. corporate and sovereign bonds that will probably blow up 1 or 2 cycles from now.
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Old 02-02-2019, 05:58 PM   #135
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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I disagree. Despite an intense short squeeze last few months, long bonds issued in the last few years are still trading 85-90 cents on the dollar. That kind of carnage is eventually going to spread out over the rest of the curve; indeed treasuries have been in a bear market since 2016 and y/y since 2012 -- something that I think will continue for decades to come.

U.S. fiscal position is rapidly deteriorating, and there is now geopolitical risk to supply chains and market access that hasn't existed in 30 years.

What I think will happen is the long end will blow out first with 10Y over 5% in the next 12-18 months. The Fed will resume its balance sheet expansion towards infinity but only on shorter dated treasuries. This will lead to an enormous credit risk in U.S. corporate and sovereign bonds that will probably blow up 1 or 2 cycles from now.
You are right, you should stick to stocks.
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Old 02-02-2019, 06:53 PM   #136
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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You are right, you should stick to stocks.
What exactly don't you agree with?

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Despite an intense short squeeze last few months, long bonds issued in the last few years are still trading 85-90 cents on the dollar.
You're not aware there was record short interest against USTs last year?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gu...eze-2018-08-20

As Gundlach predicted, a ton of speculators were caught offside when Powell made his hawkish comments and brought them max pain, exactly as he intended. A lot of those positions are cleaned out now.

Or you disagree with the premise that the recent drop in yields was a massive short squeeze?

Or you are incapable of looking up prices?

U.S. Treasury 30Y Bond
Maturity: 8-15-2046
Quote: 85.3672

U.S. Treasury 30Y Bond
Maturity: 2-15-2045
Quote: 90.5078

etc. etc.


Quote:
That kind of carnage is eventually going to spread out over the rest of the curve
Do you disagree that declines in prices will spread out over the curve?

Or you think treasuries will rally in general? Why?


Quote:
indeed treasuries have been in a bear market since 2016 and y/y since 2012 -- something that I think will continue for decades to come.
Maybe you disagree that treasuries have been in a bear market since 2016 and y/y since 2012. Should I show you a chart?

Or do you disagree that this trend will continue for decades to come? Why?


Quote:
U.S. fiscal position is rapidly deteriorating
Are you bullish on U.S. fiscal policy? If so, why?

Or are you one of those magic money tree people who believes fiscal policy has no effect on financial markets?

Quote:
and there is now geopolitical risk to supply chains and market access that hasn't existed in 30 years.
If you don't disagree with any of that, then maybe you disagreed with this part. You don't think there is new geopolitical risk that has been absent for 30 years? If so, then why?

Quote:
What I think will happen is the long end will blow out first with 10Y over 5% in the next 12-18 months. The Fed will resume its balance sheet expansion towards infinity but only on shorter dated treasuries
Here's an interview with Boston Fed President and current FOMC voting member Eric Rosengren where he talks about Reverse Operation Twist:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bo...ist-2016-10-17

Another article on Reverse Operation Twist:

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/04/...twist-the-Fed/

Do you disagree that the Fed will shorten the duration of its Treasury portfolio in coming years?

Or you don't think they will be expanding their balance sheet at all in response to the next weakness in global financial markets?

That would be in direct contrast with what Powell and the FOMC and anyone else with a brain has been saying lately: if cutting interest rates isn't enough, the Fed won't hesitate to expand its balance sheet as needed.

Quote:
This will lead to an enormous credit risk in U.S. corporate and sovereign bonds that will probably blow up 1 or 2 cycles from now.
Maybe you don't agree that should the Fed get trapped into buying mostly shorter dated Treasuries when it expands its balance sheet in the future, that issuers (including Treasury) will follow them and increasingly leverage up on shorter dated debt.

Maybe you don't agree, should that happen, in a couple economic cycles, all of that built up short term leverage will blow up, on both corporate and sovereign bonds.

It's hard to know what you disagree with, since you put such little thought into your post. Maybe you are just one of those people who think bonds go up because the Fed tells them too.

That could be a very big mistake.
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Old 02-03-2019, 03:40 AM   #137
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

All you are proving by cherry picking those bonds and rambling like an insane person is that rates are up since 2016.... up by 1% from their all time low point.
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Old 02-03-2019, 03:51 PM   #138
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Magic money tree response. Got it. Good luck with that!
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Old 02-03-2019, 04:48 PM   #139
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
I disagree. Despite an intense short squeeze last few months, long bonds issued in the last few years are still trading 85-90 cents on the dollar. That kind of carnage is eventually going to spread out over the rest of the curve; indeed treasuries have been in a bear market since 2016 and y/y since 2012 -- something that I think will continue for decades to come.
You need to read up on bonds. Price is not relevant. Yield is. And relevance? Market don't move because price/yield crossed some arbitrarily line.

And proof of "short squeeze"? Bonds rallied last month due to intense recessionary fears.

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U.S. fiscal position is rapidly deteriorating, and there is now geopolitical risk to supply chains and market access that hasn't existed in 30 years.

What I think will happen is the long end will blow out first with 10Y over 5% in the next 12-18 months. The Fed will resume its balance sheet expansion towards infinity but only on shorter dated treasuries. This will lead to an enormous credit risk in U.S. corporate and sovereign bonds that will probably blow up 1 or 2 cycles from now.

I'm not going agree or disagree with any of this, but if you believe this, and if you believe Gunlach's recessionary view, then these are actually great reasons to be buying treasuries.

To my original point on why I think shorting bonds (<= 10 year) will hurt, and that's because the market doesn't expect any rate hikes for 2019. If they're wrong, they'll be wrong by 1 or maybe 2, and you might make some money. But if they're right, then you'll see a pop in bonds any time there's a minor recessionary fear, and they're likely will be this year. And even if there isn't, you're shoveling out 2.5%-3.5% in dividends/coupons. But if you absolutely must short bonds, you should at least consider shorting ZN/ZB futures to reduce the coupon/dividend you have to pay out.
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Old 02-03-2019, 05:13 PM   #140
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Grim, thanks for the reply.

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I'm not going agree or disagree with any of this, but if you believe this, and if you believe Gunlach's recessionary view, then these are actually great reasons to be buying treasuries.
I think this is what I disagree with. If you look back historically, there is no correlation between bond yields and growth. There have been many cases, most recently in the 1970s, where rates actually rise during recessions. And of course this still happens in countries who don't have their finances together today.

I wouldn't bet on what the bond market will do in response to short term fluctuations in the economic cycle, because again I don't think there is any historical correlation. But I would bet on fiscal and macro trajectory, and I think we began a decades long bear market in bonds the last few years.

Not only does Gundlach predict 6% on the 10Y by 2020-2021:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-f...-idUSKCN1LZ2M9

But Janet Yellen also says:

Quote:
The rising deficit is unsustainable. If I had a magic wand, I would raise taxes.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-f...-idUSKCN1LZ2M9

I do think the Fed will maintain control over shorter dated treasuries for longer, and it will take time for the carnage to spread down the curve, but that's why I also added that such a policy will exacerbate the situation, because Treasury and corporations are likely to follow them by funding themselves with shorter and shorter term debt in the coming years.
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Old 02-03-2019, 06:22 PM   #141
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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I think this is what I disagree with. If you look back historically, there is no correlation between bond yields and growth. There have been many cases, most recently in the 1970s, where rates actually rise during recessions.
Correlations are meaningless without context, e.g. monetary policy, inflation etc. If the recession is accompanied with higher-than-expected inflation, i.e. stagflation, then yes, rates may rise. Otherwise, treasuries will absolutely rally during recessionary panic. I'm not saying there will be 2019, I'm just saying that I don't see a strong case for shorting bonds for the medium term (6-18 months) while you payout the dividends/coupons.

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And of course this still happens in countries who don't have their finances together today.
Not applicable. US treasuries have no (perceived) default risk. And I don't think that perception is changing any time soon.
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Old 02-04-2019, 04:28 PM   #142
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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$1100 Jan 20 leaps in $AMZN
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$250 Jan 20 leaps in $BA
These are binary unless I roll them later this year and start backing up the truck for Jan 21.

Short term looking for $280 on SPY sometime this month / end of month. Chop around few months and play the range into spring.

TNX should churn back up to 3 and get scary for bond bulls ~May but we'll see what the Fed wants to do after that.
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Old 02-05-2019, 03:57 PM   #143
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Old 02-05-2019, 05:41 PM   #144
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

****ing $SNAP can suck my dick and balls. "Hey guys, we cant grow our user base at all, we only burnt $350M this quarter, our CEO is a man child with no idea what's going on and we have no idea how to run a profitable company". Cool, up 20% AH.

Look how they've massacred my puts!
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Old 02-05-2019, 05:52 PM   #145
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Congratulations btc on SNAP. Hope you made a packet. Before today you'd owned the forum angry old man in every battle of wits and now you've owned him in stock picks as well. Well done. Cue the meltdown.
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FB destroyed SNAP and that's only going to continue.
Any thoughts on where SNAP is going from here, btc? I know you had a stabilization thesis which was reasonable and has now been fully validated; do you have a growth thesis? I don't see it myself but I don't know SNAP well and I was also pretty surprised when FB made a highly successful move to mobile advertising, which is now 94% of their revenue from near 0.
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Old 02-05-2019, 05:59 PM   #146
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

SNAP burned me too. I didn't put much in because I wasn't convinced, but still.
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Old 02-05-2019, 06:00 PM   #147
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Congratulations btc on SNAP. Hope you made a packet. Before today you'd owned the forum angry old man in every battle of wits and now you've owned him in stock picks as well. Well done. Cue the meltdown.


Any thoughts on where SNAP is going from here, btc? I know you had a stabilization thesis which was reasonable and has now been fully validated; do you have a growth thesis? I don't see it myself but I don't know SNAP well and I was also pretty surprised when FB made a highly successful move to mobile advertising, which is now 94% of their revenue from near 0.
Lol it's a short squeeze, I'm long FB and have never been short SNAP and all my fundemental viewpoints stand from our discussions but nice try.
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Old 02-05-2019, 06:12 PM   #148
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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SNAP burned me too. I didn't put much in because I wasn't convinced, but still.
Yeah, I'm in for <$500 so I'm just having a little fun, but I'm not sure I'll ever understand SNAP.

A worthless company giving less-than-expextedly bad news still doesn't mean it's not a dog**** company. It doesn't seem to have an actual growth plan.
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Old 02-05-2019, 11:09 PM   #149
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Congratulations btc on SNAP. Hope you made a packet. Before today you'd owned the forum angry old man in every battle of wits and now you've owned him in stock picks as well. Well done. Cue the meltdown.


Any thoughts on where SNAP is going from here, btc? I know you had a stabilization thesis which was reasonable and has now been fully validated; do you have a growth thesis? I don't see it myself but I don't know SNAP well and I was also pretty surprised when FB made a highly successful move to mobile advertising, which is now 94% of their revenue from near 0.
His argument was that it was a better long term bet than FB, hence his we'll revisit this post this time next year in Nov when its above $8 and that FB at $120 was optimistic at best.

Snap's issues aren't in the short term. It will bounce around like a GoPro or Fitbit did several years back based on glimmers of hope of a turnaround each earnings or new feature release. It's the long term that is a disaster, as they aren't growing at all and the current Frat Boy Genius's growth strategy of ageing up and trying to fix android for the 900th time is not likely to bear much fruit.

They are also bleeding talent like crazy which doesn't help them grow.
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Old 02-06-2019, 02:00 AM   #150
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

I would like more information on this pump sir
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