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Old 01-21-2019, 12:15 AM   #101
Dream Crusher
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

My oil stocks are up 22.48% thus far this year.
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Old 01-21-2019, 12:26 AM   #102
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by Clayton View Post
options are weird. wish there was an ELI5 for box spreads.
Basically, it's long a call spread and long a put spread, with the long options ITM/ATM. It's like buying a straddle, except you're doing it with call and put spreads instead of an individual call and put.

It's a defined-risk trade. From what I read in that thread, OP was positioned so large that Robinhood closed him out at market. His loss was a result of paying the spread.
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Old 01-22-2019, 02:41 PM   #103
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Not quite correct grim

The strike prices don't matter, as long as the strikes are the same for the call and put. In a theoretical world, the potential payoff should always be exactly the difference between the two strikes, and therefore the cost should be the same. If you can buy it for less or sell it for more, you have a 'guaranteed' payoff.

OP sold a box spread for more than the difference between the strikes. In many people's minds this means he locked in a huge guaranteed profit. However he made the same mistake as TS and failed to factor in the early exercise risk, so his account got blown up with a real loss.

Then RH shut him down because they aren't sophisticated enough to realize immediately that he had traded into a massively risky position.
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Old 01-22-2019, 04:02 PM   #104
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Can someone tell me exactly what to look for when a company is bought out on whether there will be a competing bid that might go higher? Last two stocks I owned that got bought out the price moved up to a fixed amount just less than the buyout price and never really fluctuated and of course there wasn't a competing bid launched. Just wondering of any telltale signs that might be available to confirm that someone else won't come in with a higher bid besides the price after the bid.
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Old 01-22-2019, 05:52 PM   #105
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Can someone tell me exactly what to look for when a company is bought out on whether there will be a competing bid that might go higher? Last two stocks I owned that got bought out the price moved up to a fixed amount just less than the buyout price and never really fluctuated and of course there wasn't a competing bid launched. Just wondering of any telltale signs that might be available to confirm that someone else won't come in with a higher bid besides the price after the bid.
You could look at option prices
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Old 01-23-2019, 12:06 AM   #106
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Thanks for clarifying ibavly.
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Old 01-24-2019, 12:53 AM   #107
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Anyone else think this rally is on fumes here? Leaned in to a short vix position all the way up to 35 which has come in beautifully. I've closed most of it (short UVXY call spreads expiring friday) and now I'm thinking we could see a reversal.

I think a green day fading in to the red could be a nice spot to nibble on some lottery puts or long vol here
So today was green and faded in to the red but nothing really happened. Still on some shaky ground imo

true story. forgot to close some uvxy positions on friday like a total amateur. was long 500 shares tuesday morning and walked away with an unexpected $2 profit. it would feel pretty sweet if they weren't up over 8 by the end of the day
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Old 01-24-2019, 06:22 PM   #108
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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options are weird. wish there was an ELI5 for box spreads.
A dude, now a legend, on r/wallstreetbets gave them a good go..

The Legend Of 1R0NYMAN

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Old 01-24-2019, 06:38 PM   #109
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

is there still a trade here for FNMA/FMCC?
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Old 01-25-2019, 11:55 AM   #110
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by Zenzor View Post
A dude, now a legend, on r/wallstreetbets gave them a good go..
lol guess u didnt read the post directly before mine that led me to asking about box spreads

but yes confirmed legend
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Old 01-28-2019, 02:17 PM   #111
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

did a 2% EBAY 2/15 34 put play @ 1.13
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Old 01-28-2019, 02:22 PM   #112
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

MMM earnings tomorrow morning, JP Morgan analyst Stephen Tusa who has done a great job of covering/being right on the company only a couple weeks cut his target from $178 to $158 (already had an underperform rating) says there is "a fundemental disconnect between investor perception of the company's business quality, and quality of its growth."

I think there are so many obvious bearish data points from the CAT report this morning to continued slowing internationally and issues related to China tariffs/strong dollar. It's one of those standard blue chips the passive funds love due to it supposedly being low beta/stable dividend but make no mistake, this is turning into a chronic underperformer over the last year despite having a p/e higher than the market multiple.

Really tough comps to beat from the yoy period as well, don't see any reason they don't guide down again. Have some put spreads for the report which I'm planning to add to or roll down pending on what the actual numbers/guidance is.
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Old 01-28-2019, 03:59 PM   #113
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by ASAP17 View Post
MMM earnings tomorrow morning, JP Morgan analyst Stephen Tusa who has done a great job of covering/being right on the company only a couple weeks cut his target from $178 to $158 (already had an underperform rating) says there is "a fundemental disconnect between investor perception of the company's business quality, and quality of its growth."

I think there are so many obvious bearish data points from the CAT report this morning to continued slowing internationally and issues related to China tariffs/strong dollar. It's one of those standard blue chips the passive funds love due to it supposedly being low beta/stable dividend but make no mistake, this is turning into a chronic underperformer over the last year despite having a p/e higher than the market multiple.

Really tough comps to beat from the yoy period as well, don't see any reason they don't guide down again. Have some put spreads for the report which I'm planning to add to or roll down pending on what the actual numbers/guidance is.
I was looking at this earlier, and i was on the fence about buying puts, but your points make total sense , so im going with a straight put play.


2% MMM 2/1 187.5 @ 2.18
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Old 01-29-2019, 10:52 AM   #114
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

MMM lower guidance but somehow up today, weird. Guess they beat eps/revs and the guidance is not so bad.

So many earnings misses today, AAPL tonight will be interesting.
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Old 01-29-2019, 11:55 AM   #115
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Spade Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by protonewb View Post
MMM lower guidance but somehow up today, weird. Guess they beat eps/revs and the guidance is not so bad.

So many earnings misses today, AAPL tonight will be interesting.
Sentiment was actually pretty negative heading in, seems to be a bounce on "not as bad as expected" rather than the numbers actually being solid. As you point out they did lower guidance again... I'm going to stick with it (spreads are a couple months out) and potentially add after all the various industrial earnings filter out this week.
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Old 01-29-2019, 04:38 PM   #116
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

just look at WHR
Expectations are low
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Old 01-29-2019, 05:01 PM   #117
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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just look at WHR
Expectations are low
Depends on the sector and name, for instance XLNX had pretty high expectations (huge run up off the recent lows) leading in I'd argue and it's still been the standout of the season so far. Then you had NVDA which already warned/plunged in the previous report only a couple months ago have to issue another warning ahead of the print in a couple weeks. Chips really trying to seperate themselves with smartphone growth clearly coming to a halt, seems like a healthy sign although some of the beat up names like WDC are just recovering off deeply oversold/low expectations as you mention.
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Old 01-31-2019, 12:45 PM   #118
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

fb getting the usual lunatics buying on news of a decent quarter now with what is still boiling up. They lowered their forecast for the busiest time of year just to mind**** the meek back into the corral. Continued negative outlook for 2019 - expenditure ay up, rev growth decelerating, issues galore on the horizon. fb investors can always sell their data back to daddy Zuck for a few fb coins when this thing pops. I think the question is how will it get split up not will it.
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Old 01-31-2019, 12:49 PM   #119
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by btc View Post
fb getting the usual lunatics buying on news of a decent quarter now with what is still boiling up. They lowered their forecast for the busiest time of year just to mind**** the meek back into the coral. Continued negative outlook for 2019 - expenditure ay up, rev growth decelerating, issues galore on the horizon. fb investors can always sell their data back to daddy Zuck for a few fb coins when this thing pops. I think the question is how will it get split up not will it.
Funny how you forgot to pump SNAP in this reply, allow me...

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Old 01-31-2019, 01:15 PM   #120
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by btc View Post
fb getting the usual lunatics buying on news of a decent quarter now with what is still boiling up. They lowered their forecast for the busiest time of year just to mind**** the meek back into the corral. Continued negative outlook for 2019 - expenditure ay up, rev growth decelerating, issues galore on the horizon. fb investors can always sell their data back to daddy Zuck for a few fb coins when this thing pops. I think the question is how will it get split up not will it.
If you believe all that, you should be ecstatic that you can buy cheap puts.
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:26 PM   #121
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Spoiler:
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:30 PM   #122
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Spoiler:
Just shows how weak your position is that you can't even defend it, would you like me to bump our conversation in the trading thread from November of last year when SNAP was trading pretty much where it is now and FB was at ~$135? There is zero comparison, FB destroyed SNAP and that's only going to continue.
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Old 01-31-2019, 01:37 PM   #123
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

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Old 01-31-2019, 11:45 PM   #124
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by btc View Post
fb getting the usual lunatics buying on news of a decent quarter now with what is still boiling up. They lowered their forecast for the busiest time of year just to mind**** the meek back into the corral. Continued negative outlook for 2019 - expenditure ay up, rev growth decelerating, issues galore on the horizon. fb investors can always sell their data back to daddy Zuck for a few fb coins when this thing pops. I think the question is how will it get split up not will it.
lol
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Old 01-31-2019, 11:51 PM   #125
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Re: 2019 Trading Thread



Pop, pop!
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