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2019 Trading Thread 2019 Trading Thread

09-04-2019 , 05:18 PM
A few things for tomorrow:

1. I'll be adding heavily to my SRCL short tomorrow. Still amazes me how this could be up above 46 given the ER it had. Yesterday seems like another short squeeze on lower volume and a good opp to get more short. (Obv will suck staying short anything if the market rips back to ATH but with the exception of a short squeeze the stock has very limited upside.) Thanks for mentioning the stock in this thread. I'm down so far but think it's going to work out.

2. SAVE below 36 is a long term buy for me. Was waiting for the 34s yesterday but it didn't happen. Hopefully buying tomorrow.

3. LL popped on news of original owner returning and trying to take the company private. I imagine this is set up for a nice run, and if that plan doesn't work out it will be a great short back down as the trade war crushes them.
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09-04-2019 , 05:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
294 resistance held then china flexed then trump flexed back

i genuinely think next week has the makings to be absolutely bat **** insane
yeah this seems like an interesting spot. News could come out of nowhere and really move this market but we are now at an interesting level. I suspect that if the news stays quiet we continue to rise. I'm probably holding off any shorts until monday
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09-04-2019 , 05:43 PM
China releasing news they were out of HK really set us on path to ATH again. I think the news is bullshit, and there is a lot more going on there than "China out", but it is what it is.
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09-09-2019 , 10:36 AM
Sold my gme stock up 30% and sold enough of the 3$ calls to break even. A strangle would have to fade 25% so not going to touch it
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09-09-2019 , 01:33 PM
FSLY RIP?
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09-09-2019 , 03:39 PM
Destruction in a lot of software leaders today and past week. I think wework uber/lyft and other turds have something to do with this, dipped my toe in TEAM/AYX today
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09-09-2019 , 03:41 PM
Damn growth enterprise soft tech getting murdered today.
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09-09-2019 , 03:48 PM
once we broke thru 2940 es and we got the news that trade talks were happening that was a rocket ship but 3000 is holding steady. i wouldnt be surprised to see it sorta chop in this area and we just sorta quietly doodle along for the next month or two, and then we tread back to 2900 and we see vix >20 again.

kinda like last year, honestly! pretty similar setups. i'm sure there will be some more china news along the way.

i sincerely think trump isnt getting any kind of deal from china in his first term. china can just elect to wait him out or give him unfavorable terms, usd cnh is holding steady at 7.1, there doesnt look to be any kind of collapse in the near term and hong kong looks a little less funky.
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09-09-2019 , 04:01 PM
Nice rotation from heavily longed momo to heavily shorted value today. Quants just kicking back, relaxing and having their way with everyone.
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09-09-2019 , 04:15 PM
Full moon is Friday, I'm playing up to 3% spy drop for middle of next week. Just looking for an entry...

FSLY will be primed for squeeze until the lockout period ends, or they do an alternative offer like bynd did. I think they got rekt with the sector and it wasn't capitulation of longs. I already played the squeeze though, so probably won't touch it from here.

TXMD still running. This is another piece of **** primed to squeeze/squeezing
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09-09-2019 , 10:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
once we broke thru 2940 es and we got the news that trade talks were happening that was a rocket ship but 3000 is holding steady. i wouldnt be surprised to see it sorta chop in this area and we just sorta quietly doodle along for the next month or two, and then we tread back to 2900 and we see vix >20 again.
Do you have a position or just randomly rambling?
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09-10-2019 , 10:23 AM
V is down 11$ last 2 days on general sentiment. Will be looking for an entry and expecting a draw back to 180 soon
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09-10-2019 , 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by twelve yr old
Destruction in a lot of software leaders today and past week. I think wework uber/lyft and other turds have something to do with this, dipped my toe in TEAM/AYX today
Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlieDontSurf
Damn growth enterprise soft tech getting murdered today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by calmasahinducow
Nice rotation from heavily longed momo to heavily shorted value today. Quants just kicking back, relaxing and having their way with everyone.
You wouldn't know from looking at the overall indices but there is some massive divergence under the surface already this week. All the recent IPOs are getting crushed... High flyers like ROKU, SHOP in similar pullbacks. Fast food/QSRs have been outperforming substantially and today they are finally cracking (WEN announcing they are going back to breakfast only real big story, SBUX, MCD, CMG, SHAK, DNKN, YUM etc).
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09-10-2019 , 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
You wouldn't know from looking at the overall indices but there is some massive divergence under the surface already this week. All the recent IPOs are getting crushed... High flyers like ROKU, SHOP in similar pullbacks. Fast food/QSRs have been outperforming substantially and today they are finally cracking (WEN announcing they are going back to breakfast only real big story, SBUX, MCD, CMG, SHAK, DNKN, YUM etc).
This is almost exactly like a year ago before things started to fall apart...going to tread lightly here and add some long volatility
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09-10-2019 , 02:36 PM
Q3/Q4 earnings are going to be bad. Buyback lever is exhausted and margins are being hit by wage growth and trade ramifications. Regardless if there's a deal with China or not, it's going to get pretty ugly in about a month and the Fed is going to be forced to cut 25bps every time from here on out. This is a nice spot to load back up on gold and bonds.
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09-10-2019 , 02:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thethrill009
A few things for tomorrow:

1. I'll be adding heavily to my SRCL short tomorrow. Still amazes me how this could be up above 46 given the ER it had. Yesterday seems like another short squeeze on lower volume and a good opp to get more short. (Obv will suck staying short anything if the market rips back to ATH but with the exception of a short squeeze the stock has very limited upside.) Thanks for mentioning the stock in this thread. I'm down so far but think it's going to work out.

2. SAVE below 36 is a long term buy for me. Was waiting for the 34s yesterday but it didn't happen. Hopefully buying tomorrow.

3. LL popped on news of original owner returning and trying to take the company private. I imagine this is set up for a nice run, and if that plan doesn't work out it will be a great short back down as the trade war crushes them.
SAVE and LL working out nicely. I've taken some off LL but I think it has some more upside in it.

SRCL keeps rolling upward on volume despite a down market on multiple days. Can anyone make sense of this? I am planning on holding short through earnings but I don't want to get steamrolled before that when I could just rebuy later. In hindsight that's already happened but I don't want any more pain. Any thoughts?

Last edited by thethrill009; 09-10-2019 at 02:46 PM.
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09-10-2019 , 02:42 PM
Oh and I exited 1/2 the insanity that is OSTK today finally above breakeven. I'm letting it roll but with a stop at my entry. I can't believe I held that turd throughout the past 2 weeks.
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09-10-2019 , 03:15 PM
Is DDS in a constant state of squeeze? Just burns through 40% swings like nothing
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09-10-2019 , 03:56 PM
odds of a 50 point cut have slashed. bonds down banks up

still could use some more selling in gold by the end of the week. longer term i don't want to be short but i think we could be lower or chopping short term. thats what im hoping for sep expiration anyways

still not ready to sell the index but the air seems to be getting thin up here
Quote:
Originally Posted by juan valdez
Yeah I sold calls in TLT too early. I added some more yesterday. I think they are way over extended and Vol is very high.
somehow got a win here. running like a thief in the night
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09-11-2019 , 02:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi

TXMD still running. This is another piece of **** primed to squeeze/squeezing
Nice alert on that one. Keep it up. keep posting.
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09-11-2019 , 02:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
Is DDS in a constant state of squeeze? Just burns through 40% swings like nothing
Noticed JCP in my scans yesterday. Look at PIR also. I don't believe the retail rally can keep it up tho
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09-11-2019 , 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thethrill009
SAVE and LL working out nicely. I've taken some off LL but I think it has some more upside in it.

SRCL keeps rolling upward on volume despite a down market on multiple days. Can anyone make sense of this? I am planning on holding short through earnings but I don't want to get steamrolled before that when I could just rebuy later. In hindsight that's already happened but I don't want any more pain. Any thoughts?
I'm out of SRCL and OSTK. Down b/c I was overweight SRCL, but far closer to breakeven than when OSTK was at 15. but I'm going to load the **** up shorting SRCL before earnings.

Last edited by thethrill009; 09-11-2019 at 12:42 PM.
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09-11-2019 , 03:48 PM
Of TLRD gets bought today I might throw something through a window. They got halted at 230 and released earnings in the middle of session. Was going to buy some ER calls

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3423101

Quote:
We observe all individuals who began to day trade between 2013 and 2015 in the Brazilian equity futures market, the third in terms of volume in the world, and persisted for at least 300 days: 97% of them lost money, only 0.4% earned more than a bank teller (US$54 per day), and the top individual earned only US$310 per day with great risk (a standard deviation of US$2,560). Additionally, we find no evidence of learning by day trading.
Lol

Last edited by coordi; 09-11-2019 at 04:07 PM.
2019 Trading Thread Quote
09-12-2019 , 08:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by calmasahinducow
Q3/Q4 earnings are going to be bad. Buyback lever is exhausted and margins are being hit by wage growth and trade ramifications. Regardless if there's a deal with China or not, it's going to get pretty ugly in about a month and the Fed is going to be forced to cut 25bps every time from here on out. This is a nice spot to load back up on gold and bonds.
Gold,bonds, and yen catching a major bid post-ECB. Next few months are going to be a battle between the reality of bad data, further CB easing, and the narrative of the trade war easing (which I think it will). It's crazy that the Fed will cut 25bps at potential all time highs next week.
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