Excellent guidance tooth.

That was sick Tooth, thank you. I followed you on that with a small play on $90 1/18 calls, closing it now.

I see borrow cost at 94% on IB now, whereas yesterday it was 800%+.. doesn't that mean demand has dried up quite a bit?

out of all BBBY stock @ 15.45
and sold the remaining half of bbby 12 calls @ 3.45

not tlry nice, but nice

It definitely means some level of capitulation and it's an incremental negative for a big continued squeeze. Don't know how to read or predict any of this at this point. It's holding strongly on a +25% up day. I'm happy to let the rest run for the 10 or 20% scenario where it goes to $140 next week and pays 60x. Most of the time it won't.

I do think its a good play but you're either drastically under thinking this or being disingenuous in how easy it is. Being such an 'obvious' play is why so many people did it at $50, $80, $120, $150, and got blown out. We hadn't had anything that extreme in most peoples careers and taking such a casual position is likely to be very -ev. Of course there was an absurd amount of money to be made in that drama.

There's a couple things here you should be aware of

- Calls in TLRY were super cheap (relative to puts). No one could sell shares against it so no one was willing to pay much to buy those calls from you.
- Those upside protection calls were super expensive. Everyone who was actively trading it knew those were the best ways to protect from most adverse outcomes.

In short, your trade was the obvious good one. Everyone smart was trying to put it on and the prices reflected that.

- The spreads at the time were insane. Markets got so wide that market makers were refusing to fulfill their quoting obligations. Eventually the max quoting width got loosened for TLRY only so it became the widest stock out there.

Your suggestion is to sell at the money calls and buy at a 1.5:1 risk rewards, I'm genuinely curious what strikes you would be trading because your strategy seems impossible to be.

When stock was at 230 you could sell a 1.5 week ATM call for $39 (assuming you had great execution), so lets start by buying the 290 for that 1.5:1 risk (your more aggressive suggestion). At the same time the 290C were trading for about $25. So your profit margin is now down to $14 so we need to adjust the long strike down to maintain that 1.5:1. If you were to buy 230 + 14*1.5 = 250C, that was trading around $32, so your upside profit is only 7$ and we need more protection, etc, etc. So it looks like you'd need an extremely tight spread to actually execute your strategy. It's a good strategy as written, there simply was no one willing to give you that payoff structure! Please help me understand how I'm wrong.

I'm being fairly generous here with prices, I'd imagine most retail brokers would probably end up screwing you on that front.

Great TLRY thesis TS - I didn't come close to a 10 x bagger as I got in a little late but still managed to make about 4-5x on it. Closed the trade out when it pulled back from $103.xx to $99.xx.

ibavly, "into the money calls" was the key thing. It was basically an artificial short since it was so hard to short. Like at $237 take $150 calls vs $290 calls. $90 or so (assume pure intrinsic, I don't have the historical data) vs $25 (taking your numbers) = 65 max win vs 75 max loss = 1.2:1 risk to reward.

Spreads looked good to me when I was recommending this. Not terribly wide. It depends what was happening, obviously they went nuts when it went rippy up to $300 the next day, but around $230 prices were fine.

This was an excellent call. Thank you for sharing.

OK if that is your strategy $90 is about right, however you'd only have a single day for your thesis to play out since those deep calls were getting exercised as everyone was desperate to get out of short share positions. You'd have most likely been assigned and stuck with the short share position. What would your broker do in that case? If your broker would allow you to get away with that for free I agree its a genius play and quite literally free money.

If SPY/CGC weren't as extended as they are (although might not matter), I think we could see another sqz on APHA. Bear attack and earnings behind them with a gap to fill should be interesting to watch.

Anyone else think this rally is on fumes here? Leaned in to a short vix position all the way up to 35 which has come in beautifully. I've closed most of it (short UVXY call spreads expiring friday) and now I'm thinking we could see a reversal.

I think a green day fading in to the red could be a nice spot to nibble on some lottery puts or long vol here

Yeah I agree the rally has to be about done here. Expect some sell offs to return in the coming weeks.

Earnings will decide it in the short term. Indicated willingness to extend QE will decide it in the long term.

What are your thoughts on holding a call through the lockup? I didn’t catch this move till a little later than most (about 11am Friday). Hooray for being sick and sleeping most of last week.

I don't have opinion other than that it's substantially more probable than not you'll lose your money if you hold until Friday and that calls are +EV for the rarish 30 bagger that could happen if it squeezes on further catalysts.

Bought MITK today, QNST the other day. I like the industry going forward, great balance sheets, consistent growth. Very strong relative strength.

JPM missed on revenue, eps and profits first time in 15 Qs and is up 1.2%

Is that because of guidance and basically 'not as bad as expected'?

Guidance matters more than earnings in a market that's fearful of the future, which we're in.

Bank stocks are doing well today, it's a nice up market generally and JPM followed XLF (financial sector index) off lows almost tick for tick. People look for bargains on market up days, particularly off lows/fear, the stock itself almost doesn't matter.

Lol I mean this is pretty basic silly analysis, it moreso has to do with Citi being up 10% off the lows yesterday and the rest of the sector is drafting off of that. WFC is still red and so would JPM be if it wasn't for C outperforming. It's not guidance so much as they've dramatically underperformed over the past year and are due for some catchup on a day the rest of the market is green. Still not very inspiring bounces though, a lot of the major fundemental issues still remain in terms of future growth/yield curve.

Looking for a breakout on gold here. Consolidation is almost finished. Blue Horseshoe loves GLD.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetb...mp&sh=cb692bee

Be careful out there folks

options are weird. wish there was an ELI5 for box spreads.

there is - don't do it

Ok since ive recovered all my losses and then some since my last post, ill repeat i think long oil equities is a very good play right now. OPEC is clearly cutting exports hard.