Any thoughts on TLRY? It's in an interesting spot.

On the bear side:

- Completely insanely overvalued (300 price to sales ratio or something ridiculous, negative earnings, only 20% QoQ growth) and has been since IPO, reaching as high as $30 billion on $10 million/quarter (I **** you not) in sales and $20 million/quarter in losses.

- Lockup expiry next week on Jan 15, which, given the valuation, the bears are assuming will cause selling

On the bull side:

- Shorts are maxed out to the fake platinum grills and paying 560%/year borrow rate right now. It's very hard to borrow.

- There is insane bubble interest in this and it has run 40+% in days multiple time since IPO earlier this years, including one squeeze from $100 to $300 in a few days (in which I recommended selling calls for 100%).

- 78 million shares of a 90 million share float are held by one company, a very shrewd company run by long time Wall Street sharks who might know how to squeeze this turd.

- Even more shares are held by other investors such as Peter Thiel

I actually think a short squeeze is possible if a couple of things go well, and next week calls are cheap. It's the perfect spot for bears paying 2%/day to hold this turd getting wedgied into submission, starting a buy cascade and the mother of all short squeezes.

It's a high risk of loss and maybe a 20% outcome, but I have a few calls here for next week for a big short squeeze, and am wondering if I should size up. Any thoughts?

Tomorrow has a marijuana industry leader reporting so it may affect it one way or another and change the analysis.

agreed, i think big short sqz is max pain short term.. first technical target of ~$100 looks reasonable. I would be wary of the position if there is no follow through tomorrow, though.

I also think a long, slow bleed after squeeze is likely, barring any earth shattering news.

I also prefer line graph to candlestick

And right on cue, the pumpers arrive for TLRY:
Is this even a remotely credible analysis? Once company in a commodity agricultural industry currently pulling in $10 million/quarter is going to be a $500 billion company?

If cannabis stocks aren’t a bubble I don’t know what is. Their borrow rate and option pricing is crazy though so kinda irrelevant for trading. There’s no short term catalysts down as well so it’s impossible to trade IMO.

The total market size is overestimated and how long legalization will take in majority of markets is underestimated. The amount of market share these companies will take who have little to no competative advantage is rediculous. The amount of market share large companies are predicted to take when it’s been shown small businesses take a large share in existing markets is bizarre. The predicted margins in a highly competitive field with low barrier to entry is absurdly high. I could go on and on but an analyst just threw out some random numbers and they’re really high so I guess everyone should go out and buy.

The market is starting to speculate on pharmaceutical efficacy. It's a BIG if whether or not there will be a legitimate race for some intellectual property, but it opens up the size of the market. I'm not disagreeing with the fact that the current market is overpriced.


Anyone have any Twitter follow recommendations? Favourite 2?

took profit on the options (kept the stock) ,, got out of the ostk 1/18 12.5 @ 3.20 , i could have gotten a little better on the timing on both sides, but oh well.

looking to buy ibm 2/15 115 puts

edit, bought 2% Ibm 2/15 115 puts @ 2.69

Nice trade Myrna

No, it's a complete joke. There will always be a huge black market undercutting the white market players. But in the short term they're due for a pump. STZ said on their cc today that CGC is going to be on an annualized 1b/yr rev run rate in 18 months (0% chance this happens), and it's giving the entire sector a lift. I went long next weeks calls in CGC and TLRY today off the back of those comments. These will all be great shorts when we start getting the earnings reports in February.

My fantasy scenario for TLRY is the insiders who own most of the float start putting out filings for buying more stock just as lockup arrives next week. The shorts paying 565% year in borrow fees scramble to cover because they're losing nearly 2%/day in fees and are now not getting paid, and we get a glorious short squeeze.

I too bought some calls on CGC - at the open this morning - and got out this afternoon after bagging 12%

TLRY fees going insane. It now costs 830% to short, that's 13%/week or >3% unrecoverable loss every trading day. People will have to start tapping out soon. Heck, you could buy it long for the income, and the potential short squeeze profits if your brokers pays you a cut of borrow fees. Probably more +EV than short.

KNDI is a scam Chinese electric car company that just popped 20% on news of receiving a government subsidy payment. Probably sets up a nice short opportunity.

I like that TLRY play - I was holding March $50 puts at first but sold them for around +40% recently. I just bought some $100 calls and hopefully will get another nice re-entry for longer dated puts at discount.

sold 1/2 the BBBy 1/18 12 calls @ 1.90

if Macys and kohls did not **** the bed as bad, this was easily at 14.5-15

sold OSTK stock @14.68
and VICR @ 39.60 avg

going back to bear mode eventually.

For TLRY don't forget that they and CRON are presenting at the ICR conference next week.

I'm not sure what you're implying with that statement but if you could actually call the top on the short squeeze of the century you WOULD be the greatest trader of all time (everybody knew it had to go down eventually).

Has someone looked into GRUB? I started checking them out and they look pretty shortable:
- buying growth through acquisitions mainly, which at some point will saturate (if it hasnt already, need more research)
- continually eroding margins
- gross food sales growth is less than revenue growth, which to me looks like they either charge more or realize some scale, need to look into it a a bit more, but if its the first its not sustainable, especially given:
- ubereats and amazon (not exactly in their space but still a problem) eating their margins/marketshare further
- last but not least - pretty rich valuation

TLRY opening at +20% this morning as the rapening of the shorts begins:
Imagine between 20% underwater with no lockup selling happening next week while you pay 800%/year borrow fees - you're paying 12% you can never get back just to see the flop (expiry date) + the 20% you're already underwater. You're gonna cover.

Can't remember if I said this here or in private chat but the guys who own TLRY are old school Wall Street sharks. Calls could pay 30+ bagger if this runs just a bit more, should be maybe 4-5 bagger at open

No not at all. It was a very easy top call, it wasn't even clever, it was just free money, which is what good traders do (if any of your trades are clever, you're not a very good trader). I don't have a clue on marijuana stocks as I don't understand the industry, but you can still spot super duper obvious spots if you're not a ******. It was an obvious short because of the size relative to the potential size of the dumb money chasing returns.

I know some of the non-idiots on this board followed me on this one, so letting you know what I'm doing. Took profit on the closer in TLRY calls for the 730% return as it hits $99 here, letting the further out run (and larger position though not $ size) in case we get the mother of all short squeezes and a 100+ bagger. $130 by the end of next week isn't out of the question, $105 is maybe 50/50 today. Anything can happen when short squeezes go nuts, up or down.

Awesome call on TLRY, year off to a great start

Nice trade, did you size up?

sick call on tlry TS, sucks im scared of big spreads on derivatives , cause the play made total sense.. you should have reupped the bet and stopped there.

Sadly no. Still a nice enough payday with 7 bag taken + the 10 bagger the rest are on now. Not letting go of the rest, I think a 100 bag big squeeze is still possible, the shorts haven't even begun to capitulate, borrow cost is still rising and no borrows are available.