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2019 Trading Thread 2019 Trading Thread

04-24-2019 , 05:05 PM
Hitting $200 first doesn't mean it won't retreat again once reality sets in. This thing is a mess and if they don't sink it themselves regulators will.

Asap, didn't find your call on this or even a prediction here, aren't you a fb long? All I see are a bunch bitter posts about what others think. Hmm, do you have a right to question anybody when you only share negativity here instead of picks?
2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-24-2019 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
What about SNAP reaction was unusual? Still waiting on your response there...
Yes it was very unusual in my experience 6+ years trading and watching all kinds of crazy earnings. It's not the spike and give back that's unusual. Yours was a question that missed so much nuance there was no point in replying as it wouldn't yield any fruit.
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For the rest of your analysis just so everyone is clear TS has been bearish/wrong for a long time on FB so take his comments on valuation with a grain of salt. Compare the valuation to some of their smaller peers, companies that are more expensive and yet the international growth rate is still slower. I'll wait...
This is all dickhead commentary - if you can't address the question being asked then don't bother. Nuance is escaping you badly today. Let me quote the key bits again that take everything you wrote into account (taking them as a given/accepted/ok) and try to go one step further:
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Where is the growth going to come from? They already have 1/3 of the planet using their product, the rest are povvos or donotwant.jpg. And that revenue has only been gained by insane privacy invasion that will likely be regulated at some point.
2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-24-2019 , 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Yes it was very unusual in my experience 6+ years trading and watching all kinds of crazy earnings. It's not the spike and give back that's unusual. Yours was a question that missed so much nuance there was no point in replying as it wouldn't yield any fruit.

This is all dickhead commentary - if you can't address the question being asked then don't bother.
How was it unusual then, you still haven't explained that part if it wasn't about the price action? Patiently waiting...

And we're at the name calling portion of the response so I'll guess we're done here.
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04-24-2019 , 05:14 PM
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Originally Posted by coordi
After I posted it shot up another few % which greatly reduces the chance of pulling back significantly. Looks like most of it will stick
Yeah, it's a nice run up that's getting me excited about looking for a spot to jump in on the other side. Needs a deep dive in though. We need a FB thread maybe.
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04-24-2019 , 05:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Yeah, it's a nice run up that's getting me excited about looking for a spot to jump in on the other side. Needs a deep dive in though. We need a FB thread maybe.
But wait bud, you have plenty of FB posts in the past. Shall we go to the tape for your thoughts?
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04-24-2019 , 05:44 PM
Please don't
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04-24-2019 , 07:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Yeah, it's a nice run up that's getting me excited about looking for a spot to jump in on the other side. Needs a deep dive in though. We need a FB thread maybe.
I'm in favor of way more single stock or sector specific threads - enterprise software, snap, fb, etc
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04-24-2019 , 08:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
Hitting $200 first doesn't mean it won't retreat again once reality sets in. This thing is a mess and if they don't sink it themselves regulators will.

Asap, didn't find your call on this or even a prediction here, aren't you a fb long? All I see are a bunch bitter posts about what others think. Hmm, do you have a right to question anybody when you only share negativity here instead of picks?
nothing u say seems to have any evidence or data behind it. If you think it's a certainty that FB will either implode due to their own incompetence or US regulation...are you shorting them heavily? how many lotto puts have you purchased?

Did u randomly pick a number out of a hat to come up with "Expect $150's when they miss in a few weeks."?
2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-24-2019 , 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlieDontSurf
I'm in favor of way more single stock or sector specific threads - enterprise software, snap, fb, etc
We have basically most of these, you just have to use the search function. Not to mention the trading threads will still have these type of discussions that overlap regardless because it's a higher traffic area.

Big tech names:
Apple: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/3...ighlight=apple

Google:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/3...ghlight=google

Snapchat
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/3...light=snapchat

Facebook
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/3...light=facebook

Twitter
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/3...ghlight=twitte

And you get the picture, just use search by title. There is literally a multi page thread for most of our general topics.
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04-24-2019 , 08:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by twelve yr old
Getting very long healthcare into the Mueller report release tomorrow
Got out of most my holdings today. Hopped in ABBV 77 weekly puts for the report tomorrow. Reminds me a lot of GILD/CELG declines from a couple years ago with their heavy reliance on a single product facing major headwinds.
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04-24-2019 , 08:40 PM
charlie, did you forget to log on using your asap account before quoting? I've explained it to both of your personalities ad nauseam.

10/27
Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlieDontSurf
Your read on FB is lol.
Snap's Android app has sucked for years and they have known about it and done nothing to solve it.
IG is now on par in terms of popularity with teens and its growing while SC is declining.
Their ad offerings and capabilities suck balls compared to FB/IG/GOOG
Their user discovery is god awful
Their UX is terrible for new user acquisition/retention
Their CEO is a fool who has convinced himself he is a genius
They are losing out on the talent wars to FAANGs now that they are a sinking ship

What's to like long term about them again?
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
Charlie,
fb is down 30% since the summer.
Android is an ongoing issue, but that's as bullish as bearish.
Snap is still more popular in the teen demographic and teens spend more time on snap
Zuck is consolidating power because everybody wants him gone.
Whatsapp and ig founders left billions on the table just to get away from him.
IG is propped up by fb, and has them highly vulnerable to trends
Snap ad rev is growing even though dau are down
Snap > ig/fb @ innovation
ui/ux is correctable, and not terrible as you say.

When android finally works well, and it will, do you think dau's will continue trending down? The snap problems are overblown by magnitudes while analysts do not acknowledge the issues mounting up across the battle line. Sure they are running through $, but that's to be expected at this point in the game based on what they are dealing with. FB is toxic waste that has piled up to the point there's no place to dump it all.


Last edited by btc; 04-24-2019 at 09:07 PM.
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04-24-2019 , 09:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
charlie, did you forget to log on using your asap account before quoting? I've explained it to both of your personalities ad nauseam.

10/27





Again - you didn't support your claim that FB is doomed to fail by either by their own incompetence or regulators and that the stock would miss and go to $150 after earnings. It just something you randomly made up / pulled out of your ass.

In terms of the post you pulled up from 6 months ago when u flipped a coin.

fb is down 30% since the summer. (yep, turned out to be real insightful data about FB)
Android is an ongoing issue, but that's as bullish as bearish. (we have sucked at fixing a major problem with our product for years...but its a good thing and a reason to think we're going to grow massively long term. ok.)
Snap is still more popular in the teen demographic and teens spend more time on snap (and?)
Zuck is consolidating power because everybody wants him gone. (and?)
Whatsapp and ig founders left billions on the table just to get away from him. (Not true - whatsapp n IG left for different reason and majority of both had to do with monetization and lack of autonomy/independence. fairly normal reasons)
IG is propped up by fb, and has them highly vulnerable to trends (lol wat?)
Snap ad rev is growing even though dau are down (The latter is more important)
Snap > ig/fb @ innovation (how so)
ui/ux is correctable, and not terrible as you say. (they completely abandoned the terrible redesign, correct?)

Last edited by CharlieDontSurf; 04-24-2019 at 10:01 PM.
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04-24-2019 , 10:23 PM
why bother taking it out of context when your incompetence is quoted one post above?

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fb is down 30% since the summer.
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(yep, turned out to be real insightful data about FB)
-
I literally nailed every step down before it occured, but of course you wouldn't want to inlcude that. go back and look if you want, I have nothing to prove to you.

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Android is an ongoing issue, but that's as bullish as bearish.
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(we have sucked at fixing a major problem with our product for years...but its a good thing and a reason to think we're going to grow massively long term. ok.)
snarky comments don't change facts

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Snap is still more popular in the teen demographic and teens spend more time on snap
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(and?)
are you serious? they own gen y, and their customers are flush with cash. that's a bad thing?

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Zuck is consolidating power because everybody wants him gone.
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(and?)
Whatsapp and ig founders left billions on the table just to get away from him.
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(Not true)
WhatsApp co-founder who walked away from Facebook and $850 million: ‘I sold my users’ privacy... I live with that every day’

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IG is propped up by fb, and has them highly vulnerable to trends
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(lol wat?)
Do you possess the ability to draw conclusions or is reading between the lines too difficult?

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Snap ad rev is growing even though dau are down
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(The latter is more important)
dau improvement now to boot.

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Snap > ig/fb @ innovation
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(how so)
really?

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ui/ux is correctable, and not terrible as you say.
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(they completely abandoned the terrible redesign, correct?)
So what, they redesigned something that didn't work out as well as planned. How many times has fb launched some ****ty thing that failed, only to copy someone else's success later on? snap has learned from that and is taking the same strategy fb used to grow the ecosystem.

I gave you numbers:

10/27 you outlined your ignorant argument
4/24 you see fb returns since 10/27 don't even reach snap's cock yet

It's getting late, don't you have some floors to mop at a16z?
2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-25-2019 , 12:08 AM
Again btc - u aren't arguing how snap will do vs fb for 1 week or 3 months. You are claiming that Snap is a better long term company than FB. Every claim to why that is the case has been lacking in any substance on your part. It's just idiotic opinions and random buzzwords like AR/VR, etc.

The change in stock price between 10/27 and 4/24 means little about the long term growth of the companies esp given outside events affecting the market. FB/IG/WA/Messenger continue to grow and crank $$$ and profit. Snap is unprofitable, has little to no user growth as its been stalled for nearly 2 years, and its core positive is that it is finally getting its **** together with its ad network/revenue and may finally develop some future product offerings that could spur real user growth.

If you consider +4m DAU a big positive when they are down YoY, still lost growth in the US market, and are down on ARPU then you are nuts when you consider who they are battling against. The most positive attribute in the report is the revenue growth and that the android app may have helped stabilize things so that they don't bleed internationally.

Snap does not own generation y, not even close to it, you seem to be confused on their demo. Their major support is among gen z and they don't even own gen z, followed by millenials. IG is right behind them, if not equal, and IG is actually growing at a solid pace with better ad offerings and ROI.

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"And what most people don't get is one of the greatest attributes this company has is its not fb."
That's not an attribute that is going to aid Snap in renewing its user growth. People aren't abandoning FB/IG/WA for Snap because its not FB. Besides the majority of problems with FB lie with the actual Facebook product itself.

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"The disdain for fb is palatable and only getting worse. Only old people and advertisers are still using, with the latter exploring greener pastures."
If by old people you mean billions of people age 30-70? then yes you are correct only billions of millennials, boomers, etc are using facebook. Also billions of gen z, millennials, boomers are using Messenger, WA and IG. Advertisers ****ing flock to FB and its products in droves...its where the juicy ROI is.

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"IG is bumping but for how much longer before some negative carry over?"
(Nope, sorry, but hasn't happened and shows no concerns)

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"Ad dollars are shifting (NOPE), winds of change just starting to blow (NOPE), and being long here isn't buying after breakfast and selling after lunch."
FB growth continues all around and Snap still is still stalled.

I don't even have an issue with the idea of a long options play on snap being a decent gamble. My issue is you don't seem to have any clue what you are talking about when it comes to the companies of Snap & FB, their product offerings and features, or the social space itself.
2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-25-2019 , 11:30 AM
charlie, You know I meant gen z, and again you are repeating the same imbecilic bs outlined in every post. With each passing q, the facts just keep lining up against your side. This argument started in late October with which had more room to grow from then on. That isn't even debatable; wasn't then, isn't now.

I don't have a clue? I have refuted all of your points multiple times with the facts, unlike you taking my quotes out of context. If you think fb's numbers yesterday were a grandslam, you are playing little league. They cannot monetize whatsapp, the fb platform is dead, and IG is paying all the bills. They have to merge them all into messenger or the brand will continue to erode.
2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-25-2019 , 11:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
charlie, You know I meant gen z, and again you are repeating the same imbecilic bs outlined in every post. With each passing q, the facts just keep lining up against your side. This argument started in late October with which had more room to grow from then on. That isn't even debatable; wasn't then, isn't now.

I don't have a clue? I have refuted all of your points multiple times with the facts, unlike you taking my quotes out of context. If you think fb's numbers yesterday were a grandslam, you are playing little league. They cannot monetize whatsapp, the fb platform is dead, and IG is paying all the bills. They have to merge them all into messenger or the brand will continue to erode.
Find me one person who agrees with you over Charlie, until then it's all incoherent dribble. Why is SNAP down 6% today after FB earnings? Hmmmmm I wonder... That gap keeps getting smaller and smaller on your bogus time frame let alone back to the IPO. Do you seriously think anyone believes you weren't in from day 1 given how obsessed you are?
2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-25-2019 , 12:13 PM
When you and charlie dress up for Halloween, I'm guessing he's the head and you're the ass of the 2-man donkey costume.

Do you want bet on how either company will do til eoy? Pick the o/u and name the stakes.
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04-25-2019 , 12:45 PM
WTF is going on with ALB and LTHM stock? They just go down every day and seem like solid companies.
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04-25-2019 , 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by djevans
WTF is going on with ALB and LTHM stock? They just go down every day and seem like solid companies.
Umicore announced lower guidance and apparently their reach in the lithium industry is enough that it pulled down other big players in the industry
2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-25-2019 , 02:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
MMM earnings tomorrow morning, JP Morgan analyst Stephen Tusa who has done a great job of covering/being right on the company only a couple weeks cut his target from $178 to $158 (already had an underperform rating) says there is "a fundemental disconnect between investor perception of the company's business quality, and quality of its growth."

I think there are so many obvious bearish data points from the CAT report this morning to continued slowing internationally and issues related to China tariffs/strong dollar. It's one of those standard blue chips the passive funds love due to it supposedly being low beta/stable dividend but make no mistake, this is turning into a chronic underperformer over the last year despite having a p/e higher than the market multiple.

Really tough comps to beat from the yoy period as well, don't see any reason they don't guide down again. Have some put spreads for the report which I'm planning to add to or roll down pending on what the actual numbers/guidance is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
I was looking at this earlier, and i was on the fence about buying puts, but your points make total sense , so im going with a straight put play.


2% MMM 2/1 187.5 @ 2.18
Quote:
Originally Posted by protonewb
MMM lower guidance but somehow up today, weird. Guess they beat eps/revs and the guidance is not so bad.

So many earnings misses today, AAPL tonight will be interesting.
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Originally Posted by ASAP17
Sentiment was actually pretty negative heading in, seems to be a bounce on "not as bad as expected" rather than the numbers actually being solid. As you point out they did lower guidance again... I'm going to stick with it (spreads are a couple months out) and potentially add after all the various industrial earnings filter out this week.
We were a report too early bud, sorry about that . Sad to say I let my spread expire and didn't reup as MMM kept rising with the market. Tusa crushing it, definitely would recommend paying attention to his viewpoints on the industrials.
2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-25-2019 , 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by ASAP17
We were a report too early bud, sorry about that . Sad to say I let my spread expire and didn't reup as MMM kept rising with the market. Tusa crushing it, definitely would recommend paying attention to his viewpoints on the industrials.
ditto man,, sucks.
2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-25-2019 , 02:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
charlie, You know I meant gen z, and again you are repeating the same imbecilic bs outlined in every post. With each passing q, the facts just keep lining up against your side. This argument started in late October with which had more room to grow from then on. That isn't even debatable; wasn't then, isn't now.

I don't have a clue? I have refuted all of your points multiple times with the facts, unlike you taking my quotes out of context. If you think fb's numbers yesterday were a grandslam, you are playing little league. They cannot monetize whatsapp, the fb platform is dead, and IG is paying all the bills. They have to merge them all into messenger or the brand will continue to erode.
it is stuff like this that tells me how dumb you are.

does the world end in 6m? Is that what long term means to you?

I mean if I was going to gamble on SC I'd be looking more towards 2021 once their social gaming/AR offering has launched and become fully established with a few major pop culture hits, stories is accepted and adopted by a large chunk of 3rd party developers, + Evan's core focus to age-up the user base is fully sunk in and ideally successful.

Anything 6 months out is just coin flipping.
2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-25-2019 , 02:38 PM
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Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
ditto man,, sucks.
I'm bummed a bit as well but let's be real, it's amazingly tough (much tougher than some of the loud mouths on here say) to not be influenced by price. You had a huge recovery in EM but still the dollar has been strong. The stock has lagged in the medium term but short term since the last earnings was performing in line despite lower guidance in the previous report like was discussed above. So many different factors to consider...

What I keep coming back to is despite the recent appreciation and global economy recovering off the lows, certain analysts like Tusa stuck to their guns saying this was a stock specific issue. Their main segments (safety, industrial, electronics, energy) were all down during the quarter which is stunning given some of the other reports in the sector.
2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-25-2019 , 02:50 PM
You want a long term prop, name the stakes clown. It's funny how fast you, and especially asap, are at responding to everything,... except when its time to put your $ where your smart ass mouths are. it's stuff like this that tells all how spineless you both are.

Don't even bother with the, "i don't have to bet to know how smart i am... it's just an internet forum...more bs that only losers speak"
2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-25-2019 , 03:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
I'm bummed a bit as well but let's be real, it's amazingly tough (much tougher than some of the loud mouths on here say) to not be influenced by price. You had a huge recovery in EM but still the dollar has been strong. The stock has lagged in the medium term but short term since the last earnings was performing in line despite lower guidance in the previous report like was discussed above. So many different factors to consider...

What I keep coming back to is despite the recent appreciation and global economy recovering off the lows, certain analysts like Tusa stuck to their guns saying this was a stock specific issue. Their main segments (safety, industrial, electronics, energy) were all down during the quarter which is stunning given some of the other reports in the sector.
You know what's funny? I remember seeing headlines about maybe a month ago that the MMM CFO was talking down guidance at a conference. I was the watching stock reaction, but it just didn't move which I thought was odd. Then today happens. Oh well, good read on this one even if your timing was off.

** Found it

3M says Q1 organic growth 'slightly flat to slightly negative' through February At the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Industrials Conference, 3M CEO Michael Roman said that organic growth is "slightly flat to slightly negative" through February. For Q1, says "we're probably more in the 0%-1%" range. Shares of 3M are down about 0.5% to $207.47 in morning trading.

Last edited by twelve yr old; 04-25-2019 at 03:09 PM.
2019 Trading Thread Quote

      
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