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2019 Trading Thread 2019 Trading Thread

04-05-2019 , 01:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
In October, we started debating which was a better play moving forward, SNAP or FB. I'm not using any other parameters here, you are. Again, you're calling me a hypocrite in a new thread without any substance to your accusation. We cannot be in disagreement because that would imply we share some level of intelligence. It's like me disagreeing with a baboon.
It's because you are one, if a piece of poop goes down 80% and doubles does that mean the fundementals have changed about that poop or is it a market where risky, money losing assets have had a strong year so far and short sellers are getting squeezed all over the place? Again congrats on timing when the poop has doubled, I was wrong off the absolute lows. Doesn't mean I will continue to be wrong based on my read of the fundementals.
2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-05-2019 , 01:35 PM
It wasn't just FB vs SNAP either, you have a fundemental view of FB that has been almost 100% wrong but keep trying bud. Stock is doing pretty well vs the market in your cherry picked time frame.
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04-05-2019 , 01:54 PM
The long term and value investing thread is elsewhere. You guys can argue fundamentals there. Or take it to PM. I'm sure no one here cares about either of your e-penises
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04-05-2019 , 01:57 PM
Stop the revisionist history here. I called FB tanking at every step down last year and gave the context/prices BEFORE each move occurred. Go pull the quotes, it's what you live for.

Both companies bottomed at almost the same time and yet the winds changed just as I described they would, and your description of SNAP fits FB better now. Only your blurry vision caused by ignorance prevents you from seeing that.

11/30 -
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Look at how FB has been trading compared to both SNAP/TWTR lately and with the sentiment completely washed out there is no question which of the three you want to trade and/or invest in.
Spoiler:


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04-05-2019 , 02:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
Stop the revisionist history here. I called FB tanking at every step down last year and gave the context/prices BEFORE each move occurred. Go pull the quotes, it's what you live for.

Both companies bottomed at almost the same time and yet the winds changed just as I described they would, and your description of SNAP fits FB better now. Only your blurry vision caused by ignorance prevents you from seeing that.

11/30 -

Spoiler:
I admitted I've been wrong specifically on SNAP's price during your cherry picked time frame multiple times but you can't seem to get over that and literally everyone on here was in agreement with me not to mention I never advocated a short either, I just prefered one over the other and still do. My view on the fundementals is the exact same as in October, anything else?
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04-05-2019 , 02:19 PM
Cry in your beer. You try and attack with a new spin on the same old rhetoric, and I defend myself with the same position I've had all along.
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04-05-2019 , 02:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
Cry in your beer. You try and attack with a new spin on the same old rhetoric, and I defend myself with the same position I've had all along.
The only thing I'll cry about is the time I'm wasting engaging with you. Before I go though a little gift for all those actually interested in the FB/IG vs SNAP debate:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foo...snap-2019.aspx
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04-05-2019 , 02:55 PM
Than why has every SNAP bear flipped their respective positions? You're like an std, the gift that keeps on giving.

Another article from fool, for a fool https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/...-the-dust.aspx
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04-05-2019 , 03:10 PM
FundAAAAmentals, thanks a lot spell check on my first of 4 uses lol.

Look btc you have been right in the face of a lot of dissonance on here (your long picks are also doing great in the stock picking contest so far and my inverse call terrible , it's true you haven't been here the whole time we've been talking on SNAP and I was pretty hard on ya when you pitched it. It's been a great TRADE, but as an investment I just don't agree and you or the price hasn't convinced me either despite some more positive analyst coverage. TWTR is a great product and tripled off its absolute lows in a pretty short time period, but it's still down a decent amount since it opened to the public. They both have their niches but advertisers love one property more than the other 2 despite a ton of heat they've gotten from their customers, politicians and the press. SNAP needs to start growing its user base again or it risks the same fate as TWTR, a decent trading vehicle but a crappy investment.
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04-05-2019 , 03:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
Than why has every SNAP bear flipped their respective positions? You're like an std, the gift that keeps on giving.

Another article from fool, for a fool https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/...-the-dust.aspx
Every bear? I read that article and your first sentence is complete nonsense. Sure there has been some short covering and positive analyst coverage but I mean they rose their PT in that article to below where it's trading now so lol.
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04-05-2019 , 04:09 PM
The article doesn't say every analyst, it just lists another one in a long line changing their stance in the face of a turnaround. Do you want another dozen articles supporting this shift in sentiment? Did I use "every" to make a point? ya got me

Thank you for acknowledging that and synthesizing our discourse, even if it still has some ASAP17 bias. I'm happy to move on with this kind of civilized tone from here.

Last edited by btc; 04-05-2019 at 04:15 PM.
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04-08-2019 , 11:50 AM
Tomorrow's news today, you read it here first. More bullish than most; that doesn't make it wrong.

3-18
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
SNAP $20 '20 is real with current momentum building. Another positive er or two and we'll see ath next year.
4-8
Quote:
Investors should buy Snap shares...fundamentals should keep improving...upgraded to outperform...hiked 12-month price target to $17 from $10...https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/08/snap...-buy-them.html
Quote:
1. Momentum is on its side...2. The fundamentals are improving...3. There are new catalysts for future growth...https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/...7-in-2019.aspx
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04-08-2019 , 12:59 PM
BA 4/18 397.5c @ .90
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04-08-2019 , 05:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
Tomorrow's news today, you read it here first. More bullish than most; that doesn't make it wrong.

3-18

4-8
Concede the short term turnaround has been impressive, mainly based off hype though and future products/features that are tbd, but still not certain what will spike renewed user growth in the next year. If their DAUs suddenly spike and new user growth resumes on this next two earning then they def have a shot long term as it will boost their standing in both developer and partner ecosystems. I'd assume very minimal if not stagnant growth though. Revenue will likely be up. I'd still rather own IG/Whatsapp on the long term.

The social gaming play was very smart on their part assuming they can actually pull it off.
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04-08-2019 , 06:32 PM
This is like FB when it was languishing in the 20s, of which I was also skeptical early on due to the difficulty of moving to mobile with an advertising model which at the time was as yet unproven (desktop is very different).

In the end they have 200 million high energy eyeballs, a decent percentage of which are the owners of nice *****. Thinking that's going to wither and die is a pretty bad bet vs finding a way to come back as digital ad and services revenue keeps soaring.
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04-09-2019 , 12:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
This is like FB when it was languishing in the 20s, of which I was also skeptical early on due to the difficulty of moving to mobile with an advertising model which at the time was as yet unproven (desktop is very different).

In the end they have 200 million high energy eyeballs, a decent percentage of which are the owners of nice *****. Thinking that's going to wither and die is a pretty bad bet vs finding a way to come back as digital ad and services revenue keeps soaring.
FB/IG vs Snap are massively different products both in daily use and user lock-in long term. Hence Evan making age-ing up Snapchat's user base a core priority moving forward. One I think they will fail at.

You can have 200m users and improve your ad offerings to increase revenue/profit YoY, and hopefully eventually turn a profit...but if you don't start growing your user base and increase your DAUs then things are not going to end well long term as new players enter and you userbase ages out and moves on. IG and Tiktok already have their foot on the throat of Snap and its likely only going to get worse unless one of Snap's new features locks in an untapped user base and growth returns. I have a hard time believing a better Android app is their salvation.
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04-09-2019 , 12:00 PM
Quote:
Snapchat now reaches nearly 75 percent of all 13 to 34-year-olds, and 90 percent of 13 to 24-year-olds...we reach more 13 to 24-year-olds than Facebook or Instagram in the United States, the U.K., France, Canada and Australia.
https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/04/snapchat-ad-network/
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04-09-2019 , 12:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlieDontSurf
FB/IG vs Snap are massively different products both in daily use and user lock-in long term. Hence Evan making age-ing up Snapchat's user base a core priority moving forward. One I think they will fail at.

You can have 200m users and improve your ad offerings to increase revenue/profit YoY, and hopefully eventually turn a profit...but if you don't start growing your user base and increase your DAUs then things are not going to end well long term as new players enter and you userbase ages out and moves on. IG and Tiktok already have their foot on the throat of Snap and its likely only going to get worse unless one of Snap's new features locks in an untapped user base and growth returns. I have a hard time believing a better Android app is their salvation.
Like I said above, this is way more likely to be TWTR than FB and I think most on here would consider TWTR to have a lot more utility than SNAP. Personally I view the potential positives as incremental and not revolutionary plus you have to execute, I think the street is softening up because it appears they are losing money at a slower pace.

The user base isn't growing, it's a niche product even if it's consumers stick with it long term and I think there's a lot of evidence upcoming generations won't be devoted to one platform. Reddit has a lot of eyeballs among those demos as well, doesn't mean it's monetizable.
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04-09-2019 , 02:52 PM
Sorry Charlie and ASAP17, but you guys are still not getting it. Aging up is off the table right now in terms of a necessary catalyst for growth and profitability. SNAP is obviously smartening up to focus on monetizing the core demo; an unparalleled advantage they clearly have as the numbers above illustrate.

ASAP, cmon man. TWTR is an intrapersonal sounding board whereas SNAP is an interpersonal service. They couldn't be more different. If you consider having the ability to espouse unwarranted opinions to a legion of bots than TWTR has alot more utility. If you want to chat with friends, play games, use AR, watch sex tapes, and keep up with bhad babie, SNAP has got you covered. To tie this all together, I guess IG would be the extrapersonal platform, where individual and corporate brands teach their respective species of followers how to sit and what to eat.

Putting it nicely since we have an unwritten truce now, mentioning Reddit and SNAP together proves how much room for improvement there is in your understanding of this space. SNAP is building out the ecosystem just like FB did, so even if the next gen is platform agnostic, SNAP will be embedded in their apps.

In short, SNAP's best days are ahead while FB(the brand, not the company obv) is already dead. Without IG/whatsapp, where would they be trading?
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04-09-2019 , 03:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
Sorry Charlie and ASAP17, but you guys are still not getting it. Aging up is off the table right now in terms of a necessary catalyst for growth and profitability. SNAP is obviously smartening up to focus on monetizing the core demo; an unparalleled advantage they clearly have as the numbers above illustrate.

ASAP, cmon man. TWTR is an intrapersonal sounding board whereas SNAP is an interpersonal service. They couldn't be more different. If you consider having the ability to espouse unwarranted opinions to a legion of bots than TWTR has alot more utility. If you want to chat with friends, play games, use AR, watch sex tapes, and keep up with bhad babie, SNAP has got you covered. To tie this all together, I guess IG would be the extrapersonal platform, where individual and corporate brands teach their respective species of followers how to sit and what to eat.

Putting it nicely since we have an unwritten truce now, mentioning Reddit and SNAP together proves how much room for improvement there is in your understanding of this space. SNAP is building out the ecosystem just like FB did, so even if the next gen is platform agnostic, SNAP will be embedded in their apps.

In short, SNAP's best days are ahead while FB(the brand, not the company obv) is already dead. Without IG/whatsapp, where would they be trading?
Dude the app is not growing, you continue to show how clueless you are despite the price action on how important that is to the story. They aren't branching out to new audiences relevant to advertisers. I'm sure the forum is tired of this discussion so we will just say agree to disagree. If you want to continue head to the long term investing thread or I think we've got a SNAP thread buried.
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04-09-2019 , 03:18 PM
Audiences relevant to advertisers? You mean like the only audience with cash to burn, and the audience they own, 13 to 24-year-olds? name calling again? ok
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04-09-2019 , 08:11 PM
I'm gonna end this back n forth, cuz it's become clear with each of your posts you don't actually have a clear thesis for Snapchat renewing its user growth and user engagement let alone thriving among the likes of IG and new upstarts targeting the pre-teen and teen demo. You also clearly don't seem to understand the product and its features or its ad network capabilities.

It appears you essentially flipped a coin when the stock was in the dumps based on a limited understanding of the product after reading some seeking alpha and motley fool posts and came out on the winning side. Congrats on what was a solid gamble that paid off.
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04-09-2019 , 08:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
I'd love to discuss but we need a low content thread.
A year long LC thread should work. "2019 LC Thread" that's it.

The monthly's and the April/june LC's is dumb. No need to make the effort to make one every month + low volume. Make it for a year and let it sit there. No pollical bull****. Feel free to make it, ill make it if no one does.
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04-09-2019 , 08:50 PM
I don't understand? It's funny that you and your buddy try and throw shade my way, but every post of mine on this and FB since October is clear with my well defined position.

I'm reading articles and flipping coins? Each post has been proven right, for exactly the reasons I posted, weeks and months before the results became clear for the likes of you two advanced thinkers to read in those articles, and that need those rags to tell you which way is up.

Also I haven't once brought up how wrong ASAP17 was in the cannabis thread, but naturally there's some excuse for that and how I must have been picking names out of a hat.

I'm done with both of you clowns until you can grow up and act like men. Admit you're wrong without backhanded bs and we can argue all you want. Til then, suck it

2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-09-2019 , 09:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
I don't understand? It's funny that you and your buddy try and throw shade my way, but every post of mine on this and FB since October is clear with my well defined position.

I'm reading articles and flipping coins? Each post has been proven right, for exactly the reasons I posted, weeks and months before the results became clear for the likes of you two advanced thinkers to read in those articles, and that need those rags to tell you which way is up.

Also I haven't once brought up how wrong ASAP17 was in the cannabis thread, but naturally there's some excuse for that and how I must have been picking names out of a hat.

I'm done with both of you clowns until you can grow up and act like men. Admit you're wrong without backhanded bs and we can argue all you want. Til then, suck it

We don't agree with the fundamental argument you are presenting and still don't, it's hilarious how you can't accept that even as the price on ONE of the two names we've been discussing goes in your favor (for now). Nothing you've posted has been proven right except for the price doubling off the absolute lows (after being down 80%+ since the IPO), all the actual support on it like your read of FB vs SNAP has been nonsense.
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