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2019 Trading Thread 2019 Trading Thread

03-25-2019 , 06:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
Take it to the 2020 thread. It's defacto bfi politard thread anyways


I clearly didnt start it. Per usual someone else did. Im just asking questions?

Why didnt someone say this when the poster who brought this up posted his grand statements?

Literally every thread that poster is in, turns into an argument about said poster, and personal attack. Thats off topic. Every time.

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Last edited by WorldBoFree; 03-25-2019 at 07:02 PM.
2019 Trading Thread Quote
03-25-2019 , 07:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
McConnell is.


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"The special counsel and the Justice Department ought to be allowed to finish their work in a professional manner," McConnell said.

Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
No one is trying to block the release. It can't be released before redaction because of the fallout from the starr reports. Calm your tits
Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
I clearly didnt start it. Per usual someone else did. Im just asking questions?

Why didnt someone say this when the poster who brought this up posted his grand statements?

Literally every thread that poster is in, turns into an argument about said poster, and personal attack. Thats off topic. Every time.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Is TS "he who shall not be named" now?

I wasn't even responding to your post so dunno why you are being defensive.

For intelligent people y'all should understand that discussing politics is for sheep.
2019 Trading Thread Quote
03-25-2019 , 07:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by coordi
"The special counsel and the Justice Department ought to be allowed to finish their work in a professional manner," McConnell said.


For intelligent people y'all should understand that discussing politics is for sheep.

Yeah McConnell has never spun his words for his own (and his donors) personal gain.

And yeah, says the guy who is discussing politics on a forum. Sure.


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2019 Trading Thread Quote
03-26-2019 , 02:50 AM
FFS, reading politics here is almost as tilting as reading Shuffle's page-long drivels.
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03-26-2019 , 02:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
You could track the ETF/bond inflows and outflows and see that happening each week.
Is there any edge at looking at ETF inflows/outflows? The inflow/outflow data is delayed by a day. And wouldn't real time price capture that data in some form?

It's interesting nonetheless. I'm going to see if I can download all of this data and make sense out of it.

Also, article below shows as how one trader moved hundreds of millions from HYG and JNK into USHY, but I don't see it in the flows:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/one-junk...rade-1.1233167

https://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-fund-flows-tool
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04-01-2019 , 01:12 PM
Stop coming on every time rates have a small recovery after going down everyday for a couple weeks. The only thing clear is you have no clue what you are talking about.
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04-01-2019 , 01:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
We tried this once before with equities in December and you were all talk. Lucky for you otherwise I would have your $30,000 by now.

Want to make a bet on 10Y yield this year my friend?
It's lucky I wouldn't have taken a bet that I never proposed, agreed to, was ridiculous in that in had NOTHING to do with the OP which you said had 70% of happening (S&P to 1900 by January 31) and later claimed was for sure happening? You've been wrong on almost everything for years, if we had an inverse on your calls we'd all be rich... it's that incredible.
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04-01-2019 , 01:24 PM
Speaking of China pump, I'm long the market this week
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04-01-2019 , 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
The market isn't paying attention to the Fed anymore. China's credit injections are far more relevant and the Fed is being relegated to bystander status.

I'd suggest to read Eugene Fama's work and you'll see the Fed's operations in ER regime are net neutral. It can and does cause short term distortions that quickly evaporate, but that's all.

These temporary moves are enough to capture the attention of our chipper little friend here GrimReaper, who doesn't seem to understand much, but look! There is the 10Y right back over 2.5%.

Meanwhile, Fed Funds have risen above interest on excess reserves-- meaning the Fed can't even control their basic target rate. If you go and read the Fed minutes they have explicitly told you:

1. they don't have the ability to control short term rates
2. they are going to abandon targeting the Fed Funds rate altogether
3. they will begin to target the overnight bank funding rate instead
4. they expect inflation will overshoot their 2% mandate
5. instead of tightening monetary policy in line with their mandate, they will shift to an "average" 2% mandate meaning they are cool with 3% and 4% annual inflation

Take all of these things together and it's clear the Fed is being usurped by the PBOC as the dominant monetary authority in global financial markets. The divergence between Fed and PBOC coordination began to show in 2018 and it's only growing this year. The Fed now has little or no control over interest rates. There is going to be a very substantial pickup in inflation-- all of those excess reserves the Fed thought they could force banks to hold with IOER are now going to start moving into the real economy.

Meanwhile, Treasuries are still in a 3 year bear market. They have already lost back half of their gains from the previous two weeks. There is still going to be record supply, year after year after year. The Fed has already told you to expect substantial inflation increases and they have also told you they will not act to tighten monetary policy when that inflation arrives.

Pretty clear in which direction the market will move over the coming months and years.
However, there's nothing stopping the Fed from cutting rates to zero or even negative in response to a stock market crash. As that will collapse the 3mo, the 10y will also collapse with it, at least initially until it explodes upwards if stagflation is your scenario.

If you want to play stagflation, why not just wait for treasuries to spike/gold to plummet after the market crash and the rate cuts, and then buy gold/short treasuries?

Basically, you are calling for the 10y rates to rise even in the face of ZIRP/NIRP and central bank manipulation right from the get go, but looking at all the other countries that have initiated NIRP like Japan, Germany, Switzerland, etc., that just doesn't seem all that likely.
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04-01-2019 , 01:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
TNX broke out nicely to the upside today.

GDP and Chicago PMI (including prices paid) all came in super hot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
Short term descending triangle breakout. Target 2.93



2.6% > 2.2% expected



64.7 vs. 57.5 expected vs. 56.7 previous

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/chi...ected-20190228



You seem mad. Take a deep breath and calm down, everything will be ok.
Just a reminder the 10y was around 2.7-2.75 here and topped two days later, brilliant.
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04-01-2019 , 02:03 PM
What bear market? Because they aren't at absolute lows? Back up the chart, if you think bonds are in a real bear market you are insane. We keep going round and round because you just can't admit your fundamental take AND prices have (so far) confirmed the opposite. I mean to say that German and Japan 10y being negative doesn't affect the demand for US yield is also insane. You don't get ahead of a freight train which is what is happening around the world as central banks get even more dovish.
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04-01-2019 , 03:38 PM
Spoiler:
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04-01-2019 , 03:43 PM
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04-01-2019 , 04:07 PM
Long AVGR .98. Junk bonds keep breaking out high beta looks good LIKe BABA
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04-01-2019 , 09:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
These temporary moves are enough to capture the attention of our chipper little friend here GrimReaper, who doesn't seem to understand much, but look! There is the 10Y right back over 2.5%.
Wtf? I said myself that 2.5% was too rich (see below). You're a total clown. Funny how you disappear 9/10 days the market goes against you, and back the 1/10 day the market catches its breathe. You don't think what you're doing isn't obvious? Don't come back until the 10 year is anywhere near 5%.

And how's the BA trade doing?


Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
With that said, I don't think anyone foresaw the large move today. And now I'm thinking treasury holders are going to feel foolish holding on to 2.50%, so I don't think we're staying at these levels for too long. These levels only make sense if there's looming recession, as the market believed in Dec/Jan which was when we last saw these levels, or the market has conviction in a 2019 rate cut.
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04-01-2019 , 10:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
It's lucky I wouldn't have taken a bet that I never proposed, agreed to, was ridiculous in that in had NOTHING to do with the OP which you said had 70% of happening (S&P to 1900 by January 31) and later claimed was for sure happening? You've been wrong on almost everything for years, if we had an inverse on your calls we'd all be rich... it's that incredible.
Dude doesn't get markets, whatsoever.

But being wrong 100% of the time is a skill in and of itself. He reminds of this episode of Numb3rs, where a psychic has to guess the color of the first 20 (?) cards of a shuffled deck. He got them all exactly wrong lol.
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04-01-2019 , 11:10 PM
I reported someone. Guess who? Here was my message:

Quote:
Nothing wrong with this post specifically, but the guy is permabear spewtard who makes outlandish, nonsensical claims for years justified by painfully poor logic. This is worse than trolling. His points have been rebutted, and the market never agrees with him, but you'll see him return to forum the 1 out of 10 days the market wiggles a bit in his direction. He needs to stop posting about anything related to financial markets for the sake of forum quality.
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04-05-2019 , 11:12 AM
AMD is getting short squeezed pretty hard today. They are pumped right now but have a lot going for them. I'm taking various calls 1+week out and will look for spots to sell before exp
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04-05-2019 , 11:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
You've been wrong on almost everything for years, if we had an inverse on your calls we'd all be rich... it's that incredible.
If you were looking into the mirror and reading this aloud, it would be amazing self reflection and step 1 on your path to redemption.
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04-05-2019 , 12:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
If you were looking into the mirror and reading this aloud, it would be amazing self reflection and step 1 on your path to redemption.
What's funny is your last post talking **** marked the lowest level for FB (was trading ~$159) since the last earnings report and its added a few SNAPs in market cap. Your fundemental takes are still bad and that's despite the run SNAP has been on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
FB is ASAP17's long term holding; all you need to know...

SNAP $20 '20 is real with current momentum building. Another positive er or two and we'll see ath next year.
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04-05-2019 , 12:29 PM
I said long term and you took a two week SNAPshot. For you, long term is obviously like 2 seconds since you feed off of toaster leavin's. FB is a grease trap waiting for a spark. Can FB break $200 before hitting $125 again? Sure looks like it. Doesn't make that any less of a terrible long term position. And also doesn't negate which of these companies still has more upside which gets back to the original issue of growth

Spoiler:
2019 Trading Thread Quote
04-05-2019 , 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
I said long term and you took a two week SNAPshot. For you, long term is obviously like 2 seconds since you feed off of toaster leavin's. FB is a grease trap waiting for a spark. Can FB break $200 before hitting $125 again? Sure looks like it. Doesn't make that any less of a terrible long term position. And also doesn't negate which of these companies still has more upside which gets back to the original issue of growth

Spoiler:
Lol and if we go long term SNAP is still down an absurd amount from its IPO/a lot of the shareholder base decently under water so don't be a hypocrite. The point is your takes specifically on FB have been wrong pretty much the whole time so really no room to say much of anything.

Also it's hilarious how you started responding to this then abandoned it and had to come back. Lmao.
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04-05-2019 , 12:50 PM
You cannot move the goal posts every time you try and assert yourself as anything other than an otter. Are we using FB's ipo as the basis for it being a great long term investment right now? You smell funny even through the screen.

Last October is when this started, and that's where the measurements begin for the purposes of our argument. I won't regurgitate those same fundamentals you dismiss, but still hold true; the only thing that matters is I'm outperforming you by a wide margin since then and ytd.
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04-05-2019 , 12:57 PM
FB is a great long term investment and SNAP isn't both historically and going forward. The conversation has been going on a lot longer than last October (we've been talking about SNAP on here since it went public) but nice try to move the goal posts yourself, hypocrite. It's been a nice trade off the absolute lows but price doesn't mean the fundementals have changed IMO so we'll just agree to disagree.
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04-05-2019 , 01:30 PM
In October, we started debating which was a better play moving forward, SNAP or FB. I'm not using any other parameters here, you are. Again, you're calling me a hypocrite in a new thread without any substance to your accusation. We cannot be in disagreement because that would imply we share some level of intelligence. It's like me disagreeing with a baboon.
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