Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Business, Finance, and Investing Making money, investing in markets, and running businesses

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-18-2019, 11:58 AM   #301
coordi
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
coordi's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: a bundle of sticks
Posts: 18,675
Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Made my first trade today, a retarded 281 spy daily put @.12 after the morning pump hoping for a pullback. Got out at .26 Ayeeee ��
coordi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2019, 12:15 PM   #302
btc
Challah Atcha
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,324
Re: 2019 Trading Thread

FB is ASAP17's long term holding; all you need to know...

SNAP $20 '20 is real with current momentum building. Another positive er or two and we'll see ath next year.
btc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2019, 03:44 PM   #303
twelve yr old
old hand
 
twelve yr old's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Favela
Posts: 1,784
Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Market going back to ATHs. Fundamentals don't matter in the short term and there's too much money on the sidelines.
twelve yr old is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2019, 04:25 PM   #304
CandyKreep
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
CandyKreep's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Orlando, FL
Posts: 6,029
Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Well done man. Making an absolute killing on that one, the best tech stock of the year maybe? I love that the various forum idiots were chewing you out for it too, not seeing the obvious upside potential.

You holding on for more or is this it?
And here I was, about a month off from nailing that bottom as my first ever options trade - a SNAP $8 Call 4/18 that I decided to ditch after it went against me... sigh.
CandyKreep is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2019, 07:02 PM   #305
juan valdez
Pooh-Bah
 
juan valdez's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Canada
Posts: 4,425
Re: 2019 Trading Thread

I think the rally is over by the end of the week. I'm going to start adding shorts if the fed pumps on wed
juan valdez is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-20-2019, 03:04 PM   #306
wikibg
centurion
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 137
Re: 2019 Trading Thread

@Shuffle How is the short treasuries trade going ?
wikibg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 03:12 AM   #307
:::grimReaper:::
veteran
 
:::grimReaper:::'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,555
Re: 2019 Trading Thread

^Yup. That's what happens when you read ZeroHedge-like sites and watch Gundlach instead of just reading the markets and watching Powell. You end up wrong and looking foolish. Treasuries had capped risk to the downside. In the beginning of the year, the market was speculating at most 1 rate hike, which was revised to no rate hikes, which was recently revised to at most 1 rate cut. Meanwhile while Powell kept repeating "patience" every time he was on air and suggesting he wanted to overshoot inflation (i.e. no intention to raise rates).

With that said, I don't think anyone foresaw the large move today. And now I'm thinking treasury holders are going to feel foolish holding on to 2.50%, so I don't think we're staying at these levels for too long. These levels only make sense if there's looming recession, as the market believed in Dec/Jan which was when we last saw these levels, or the market has conviction in a 2019 rate cut.
:::grimReaper::: is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 10:10 AM   #308
ToothSayer
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ToothSayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: BFI Thought Leader
Posts: 8,122
Re: 2019 Trading Thread

You think the market believed in a looming recession in late 2018? I didn't see that at all and there was no economic data to support it. To me the move looked a lot more like a wholesale move from stocks to bonds on yield improvement in an overstretched market with further looming rate rises and a little uncertainty about the future of the trade war (which is different to looming recession fears). Perhaps some global jitters (e.g. China) played a part but I'm just not seeing it.
ToothSayer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 01:49 PM   #309
Shuffle
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 7,935
Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by wikibg View Post
@Shuffle How is the short treasuries trade going ?
It's looking the same as it did last week or any other week. 10Y is still above 2.5 which is key support. Forward inflation expectations are ramping. The Fed has straight up told you that when inflation picks up, they don't care and won't do anything, they will let it run hot to "average 2%" which is another way of saying they are scared to death of tightening monetary policy and don't think they can politically.

It's called stagflation-- get used to it.

On top of that, Treasury will provide the market with never-ending supply.

Fed Funds just topped interest on excess reserves, which means the Fed doesn't have any control over the market. They have been asking around trying to figure out a way to establish a "ceiling" policy and so far they are stumped. Soon, Fed Funds will break above their target range and then the real fun will begin. They will scramble to tip the boat from the long end to the short end and although it will take a few years, I've already explained to you what happens after that.
Shuffle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 04:17 PM   #310
:::grimReaper:::
veteran
 
:::grimReaper:::'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,555
Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
You think the market believed in a looming recession in late 2018? I didn't see that at all and there was no economic data to support it. To me the move looked a lot more like a wholesale move from stocks to bonds on yield improvement in an overstretched market with further looming rate rises and a little uncertainty about the future of the trade war (which is different to looming recession fears). Perhaps some global jitters (e.g. China) played a part but I'm just not seeing it.
Not 2018, 2019. You had trade tensions in Nov 2018 in an already globally weak economy, then the Fed raised rates in Dec despite market volatility, dismissing it as normal and that balance reduction would be on "autopilot". Then on the first trading day of 2019, futures sold off pretty hard pre-market on weak PMI data from China and Europe. However, equities rallied during the US open until the close. At the close, Apple revised its earnings down, citing weakness in Chinese demand. The market extrapolated this guidance across the board and equities sold off very hard from there and the Yen flash-crashed. Fed Funds futures forecasted a 50% chance rate cut for 2019.

If that's not a recessionary scare, then I don't know what is.


Edit: Yen flash-rallied

Last edited by :::grimReaper:::; Yesterday at 04:28 PM.
:::grimReaper::: is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 04:19 PM   #311
:::grimReaper:::
veteran
 
:::grimReaper:::'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,555
Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Shuffle, you really don't know when to stop, do you? How long have you been wrong... about everything. Please stop clowning out this thread.
:::grimReaper::: is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 07:05 PM   #312
juan valdez
Pooh-Bah
 
juan valdez's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Canada
Posts: 4,425
Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper::: View Post
Not 2018, 2019. You had trade tensions in Nov 2018 in an already globally weak economy, then the Fed raised rates in Dec despite market volatility, dismissing it as normal and that balance reduction would be on "autopilot". Then on the first trading day of 2019, futures sold off pretty hard pre-market on weak PMI data from China and Europe. However, equities rallied during the US open until the close. At the close, Apple revised its earnings down, citing weakness in Chinese demand. The market extrapolated this guidance across the board and equities sold off very hard from there and the Yen flash-crashed. Fed Funds futures forecasted a 50% chance rate cut for 2019.

If that's not a recessionary scare, then I don't know what is.


Edit: Yen flash-rallied
Since AAPL moves the market it looks like moves in both direction have caused buyers and sellers to over react each way. When aapl moves it looks like it triggers sentiment in the indexes.

Still think next week is a good opportunity to sell the market. I'm going to add some shorts on monday. Hoping it's up in the morning and sells off

Finance sector struggling with rates on hold. GS and KRE look like a decent place to get some short delta if you want any
juan valdez is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 09:59 PM   #313
:::grimReaper:::
veteran
 
:::grimReaper:::'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,555
Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by juan valdez View Post
Since AAPL moves the market it looks like moves in both direction have caused buyers and sellers to over react each way. When aapl moves it looks like it triggers sentiment in the indexes.

Still think next week is a good opportunity to sell the market. I'm going to add some shorts on monday. Hoping it's up in the morning and sells off

Finance sector struggling with rates on hold. GS and KRE look like a decent place to get some short delta if you want any
I don't follow AAPL everyday to know whether one moves the other, but obviously they're correlated. What I was saying was that AAPL's downward revision made the market question who else's earnings would be revised down and whether we were going to import economic slowness from China.

Shorting here is so tempting, but I stopped shorting the market after 2017 lol. But today's market sentiment offers a much better opportunity than basically any day back then.
:::grimReaper::: is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 10:04 PM   #314
ToothSayer
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ToothSayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: BFI Thought Leader
Posts: 8,122
Re: 2019 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by juan valdez View Post
Since AAPL moves the market it looks like moves in both direction have caused buyers and sellers to over react each way. When aapl moves it looks like it triggers sentiment in the indexes.
Apple is more a harbinger than a market mover in my view, although it obviously has a minor effect by sheer size. The fed however is certainly a market mover. In fact everything since October can be seen as a result of fed policy, from their full steam ahead with normalization to their doubling down of same even as the market took a battering to their "oh damn guys we didn't mean it! we'll never do that again" special summit in late December as a correction from the to bonds turned into a increasing bear market. Seriously, plot their stated intention on rate rises and asset drawdown policy vs market movements.
Quote:
Still think next week is a good opportunity to sell the market. I'm going to add some shorts on monday. Hoping it's up in the morning and sells off

Finance sector struggling with rates on hold. GS and KRE look like a decent place to get some short delta if you want any
The fed just mega-juiced the market once again yesterday. Where do people put their money but in stocks with the fed killing future bond returns? All time highs are as likely as a correction unless Trump comes through with some trade news.

Last edited by ToothSayer; Yesterday at 10:10 PM.
ToothSayer is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:14 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online