How long will the newest gene-editing pump last?

I took a loss on RUN at 16.50 at the early market pop. -3.5%
HK - holding.
DGLY - letting it all ride , and short rate is now 72.5%.

wild trading day today. crickets in here sadly. some of you guys must have done something today no?

Yeah, it's time to learn and move on from this one, Holmes.


The bull case is nothing but a last ditch deliberate pump on a penny stock. She's finished.

Is it that you don’t think they can find a buyer for their land or you don’t think the acreage is worth more than market cap at 1.63? Or do you know somehow that they are in way worse shape financially than they have been reporting and have no time until bankruptcy?

I think bull case is pretty simple- buy my wells+land at a discount (ie minimum premium)and we all make money from here. And that’s what the biggest active investors are pushing for too.

This is my first time in HK, but I understand why anyone who bought prior than the past few weeks would be pretty mad.

Nice on DGLY. I have been seeing it in my nightly scans. I focus on equites around a $1 to $12 a share. My ICON ran 70% plus today. Gonna lock it in for sure today.

LOL I knew those NIO calls were free money. If $15 hits in 9 days i'll be floored

How's that breakout looking now bud plus take a look at yields outside of the US... Just so everyone is clear despite the nice moves in US and EM to start the year from an equity standpoint, new 10y 52w lows in: Australia, Canada, Germany, France, Spain oh and Japan went negative again. Brazil, which is one of the best performing EM's of the last couple years is testing a decade's low level. Even Greece is back to a 3% 10 year... US debt is a nice alternative to countries with no growth and serious long term demographic issues.

They were priced in such a way that it was very likely you were going to win. The real question is whether the R/R was worth it given that you probably would have the outcome you had but could lose a lot more if the 10% chance hit. Seeing .20 option calls not get filled shouldn't really add much more for anyone, and shouldn't really give you any more clarity about the R/R that makes you think this was free money.

Shuffle, are you still sticking with your short treasuries view after today?

But but but the guy on CNBC said 10 yr yields are going to 5% in 18 months.

I’ve posted this idea a few times. The Baby Boomer Effect:

Quote:

Following World War II, in 1946, more babies were born than ever before: 3.4 million,, which is 20 percent more than in 1945, according to History.com. This marked the beginning of the so-called “baby boom.” In 1947, an additional 3.8 million babies were born, a further 3.9 million were born in 1952 and over 4 million were born every year from 1954 until 1964. At this point, baby boomers represented 40 percent of the nations population.

Generally speaking, the boomers are collecting SS now and thus for a period of time the Feds will be fiscally strained in meeting those obligations more than say in meeting those obligations for subsequent generations. SS payouts are basically indexed to inflation and thus the Fed has a vested interest in maintaining low inflation which means lower bond yields generally speaking. Keeping a lid on inflationary pressures like labor costs is accomplished by tight monetary policies. Thus expecting inflation to rise to a level where we’re seeing yields on ten year treasuries climb to something like even 3.5% seems like a very low probability event to me FWIW.

it's generally accepted that SS won't exist at least in its current form in 10 years... if you are basing economic policy on its existence then the 100s of trillion in entitlements that are underfunded are certainly going to cause more issues that will force inflation then the fact that their payments are currently pegged to inflation. Also contraction of workforce has obvious output issues unless technology can overcome that so another factor which will cause inflationary pressure because of aging population.

You have to really distort reality to believe aging population will cause inflation to decrease. Japan is the exception. They're basically shrinking their economy into non existence by overreacting to the aging issue and artificially counteracting inflation. It works for a (relatively) smaller economy during QE globally but if US did it would cause a global depression especially if anyone globally (china) does QT.

By whom?

We’re talking specifically monetary policy but I digress.

Hundreds of trillions? Over the top rhetoric ftw.

How exactly would this cause inflation?
In the context of the Quantity Theory of Money

Quote:

Mainstream economics accepts a simplification, the equation of exchange:

M * VT = PL * T

Where M represents the money supply, VT represents the money velocity PL represents the rate of inflation and T represents real GDP.

????


You seem to be promoting some kind of Fed conspiracy theory where the Fed will maintain/increase the money supply as Real GDP declines.


Generally speaking, a decline in economic growth means lower inflation.

Why?

By doing what regarding monetary policy?

Seems like unsubstantiated nonsense.

1. Everyone who realizes we are massively underfunded and are never going to raise taxes enough to sustain the level of entitlements currently in place

2.http://www.usdebtclock.org Says 123 trillion in unfunded liabilities currently. I actually think it’s calculation is low but it’s kinda irrelevent. I stand corrected I guess I should have said a hundred and tens of trillions instead of hundreds. Hyperbole aside it’s irrelevent. The number is too high for us to ever meet those obligations without serious economic consequences.

3. Only way to fund them if we end up doing that is raise taxes or increase money supply... guess which is more likely.

4. That’s not true. In short term downturns typical policy artificially depresses inflation but it does not hold true if gdp contracts long term and logically it doesn’t make sense that it would. Just look at your formula.

5. Although it’s somewhat in debate there has been a lot of research on this. I can link articles or you could just look them up yourself but most show that the larger working % of the population (18-65) the lower inflation.

6. We can have a long discussion about Japan’s policies on its own but they’re not transferable to the US for a lot of reasons.

Prices have been kept low by the power of intelligence and an increasing army of slaves, both human and mechanical. Robotics is going to increase the slave population many fold. Just like coal and oil gave us free motive power far beyond what an individual can do, robotics will give us free human-level-competent workers far beyond what the human race can do - many per person. Economic growth is going to be extraordinary in the coming decades.

The only major danger to economic health is conquest by China (thanks to new paradigms of robotics, AI, biological warfare, hypersonics, etc, which will make nukes and traditional armies obsolete) and the potential creation of a new, permanent paradigm of control thanks to the level of technology and data storage not previously possible, that make 24/7 watching and control of the entire population possible and inescapable. China is rolling out pilot programs already which are a tiny taste of the horror of centralized control to come.

Long term there are no other concerns - not deflation, not debt, not anything really.

If Boeing is getting rekt because of the wreck, it'll be back >400 in no time

Sorry. No.

Right; budget deficits almost have to increase every year until at least 2030, and that's assuming there is no recession....lol.

Basically SS and Medicare are about 38% of total fed spending right now and people 65+ are something on the order of 13% of the population. That number will increase as a proportion of the population every year until 2030 when it's about 20% of population.

Presumably 50% more people over 65 will equate to roughly 50% more spending on SS and Medicare. That's probably not accurate but we can all agree lots more spending.

If it were today that would equate to an additional ~850billion dollars in spending pushing the deficit to 2 trillion. Add in the fact interest on the debt is currently 565 billion and rising and things are going to get interesting real quick sometime in the mid to late 2020's if not sooner.

Plus many states have the same demographic problem with defined benefit pensions that will come to head at the same time and uh well idk, seems bad.

Disclaimer I have no idea what I'm talking about but the base case seems dicey enough as it is. What if demand for T bills wanes even moderately causing interest rates to rise? What is there is another recession and govt receipts pull back 25% ala GFC? Seems like things could get sideways in a hurry imo.

Lol Shuffle luck boxes back a few percentage points on his BA puts and starts talking it up

At which price do you guys think Boeing is a buy?

1 year low purely off potentially isolated event... Now. Shuffle is right that it could get ugly if there is a design flaw. The likely hood of that being the case is extremely low though

Good summary. You think the plane is fatally flawed (no pun intended)? Or can they get to a good-enough place with overrides and software changes?

edit: Man that Lion Air crash is a sobering read. Boeing should reasonably have foreseen that sensors would fail and combined with the nose-down hokeyness crash people at high speed into the ground.

edit2: Understatement of the century: Former Boeing engineers expressed the opinion that a nose down command triggered by a sensor single point of failure is a design flaw if the crew is not prepared.

I with you on >20% odds this sinks them in the near to medium term.

Hard to go higher given that every pilot in the world now knows the fatal flaw though. Reduces the odds of further crashes which are perhaps at once every 3 months. I'm seriously WTFing at a hard-nose-down program depending on a single point of failure sensor. Whoever did the final sign off on that should be in prison for 314 criminally negligent homicides.

https://arstechnica.com/information-...report-claims/

"Boeing’s fixes to 737 MAX software delayed by government shutdown, report claims"

"The update seeks to correct what may have been the root cause of the crash of Lion Air Flight 610 in Indonesia last October—the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System's (MCAS') reliance on a single sensor to determine whether the aircraft is entering a stall. But according to a WSJ report, that fix was delayed because the FAA shutdown interrupted the approval process."

Well that's an admission of guilt if I've ever seen one. Definitely doesn't look good