Apple is more a harbinger than a market mover in my view, although it obviously has a minor effect by sheer size. The fed however is certainly a market mover. In fact everything since October can be seen as a result of fed policy, from their full steam ahead with normalization to their doubling down of same even as the market took a battering to their "oh damn guys we didn't mean it! we'll never do that again" special summit in late December as a correction from the to bonds turned into a increasing bear market. Seriously, plot their stated intention on rate rises and asset drawdown policy vs market movements.
The fed just mega-juiced the market once again yesterday. Where do people put their money but in stocks with the fed killing future bond returns? All time highs are as likely as a correction unless Trump comes through with some trade news.

I'm thinking that might be the point. The Fed bluffs. They want to raise rates without inverting the curve, so they talk a big game about their projects.

His ability at fundamental and technical analysis to be completely wrong is unparalleled. Just go look through the trading threads from 2015/16 and the S&P will crash to 1900 thread from late last year/early this year.

So that's a new 52w low in 10 yr yields in: United States, Canada, Germany (negative again this morning), France (getting closer to negative yields), UK, Japan (deeper into negative territory), Australia. Just like shuffle says global yields from Europe and Japan don't affect the United States so nothing to pay attention to!

I thought the fed announcement was neutral news so its interesting watching the market, relatively, lose it's mind in the couple days after

in hindsight i guess powell matters a lot more than the trade war. i'm still holding out on being more long until there's clarity on china trade war stuff, but the time to buy all of the things shoulda been when powell calmed down and signaled fewer hikes. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

this quarter has actually been one of my slowest quarters, have basically been in defensive mode the entire year so far. spending more time away from desk doing fun IRL things since Q4 i was at my desk almost 24/7.

I'm all for free speech, but there comes a time when free speech interferes with thread quality. Perhaps a mod should look into this?

Futures sold off on weak German PMI data.

I don't understand this. If this is going to happen, wouldn't it be better to wait until the Fed launches QE4 again in response to a market crash before playing for stagflation?

Thoughts on Mueller's report impact on the market (if any)? The headlines rolled out minutes after the futures closed. Is this creating more or less uncertainty?

edit: Just did some research. Looks like he's not indicting anyone else and he's closing shop.

The Russia hoax was pure fake news, from a deranged and hateful hard-left media, as I've been saying all along. A little bit of reason made that obvious. 2 yearrs, constant lies and spin in an attempt to delegitimize the presidency (and ironically do Russia's work for it). We have a CNN producer on tape last year saying he thinks it's "probably" bull**** but that it gets ratings. It was deliberate lie pushed by the media to appeal to the minds of deranged left wing losers, and also a political push because the left hate Trump, and the media has become hard left in the US.

The left are bat**** crazy and this will damage them a lot (as it should) and help Trump's chances of winning 2020. It's' good for stocks, although I don't think you'll see a lot of impact now.

^ lol that's some great trading content you mark

I didn't bring it up (someone else asked) and it's the weekend. The Russia thing has been mentioned here several times and has been market moving. I've been on record as saying it's pure bull**** and Trump won't be indicted and to trade accordingly, to strong disagreement. One mainstream media fake news piece in particular dumped the market 2.5% in an afternoon. Knowing the truth about this stuff, and that fake news is fake news, matters to making the right trades.

The mark is you for believing the Trump/Russia claim.

Anyway it's done now for good and Trump's chances in 2020 went way up which is great for your stocks and the economy and increases his ability to bring China to heel.

Let's keep the politics to a minimum, but I agree, I hate CNN. I stopped going there after they released the obvious fake news "Trump wants to fire Mnuchin" during Dec selloff.

Fed announcement was a meaningful pump - much more dovish than expected, the currency data alone shows that clearly - and as Grim says it was unexpectedly very weak euro data that cause a freakout yesterday (followed by a bond flip).

A similar thing happened at all time highs in early October last year when bonds went through (if memory serves) 3% and the market began a wholesale move to bonds that ended in an increasing panicked flow and then flight to bonds as time went on. You could track the ETF/bond inflows and outflows and see that happening each week.

I've been actually fascinatedly watching bonds since January 2018 blew up and you could straight up predict what the market was going to do by how bonds were acting. That was easy compounding money, day after day. I suspect 2019 is going to see more of that...I don't think any of us have to be clever to make excellent money this year.

positions?

I looked at inflow/outflow reports and it looked like bond money followed the stock market, not the other way around, but I could be missing something or looking at the wrong data

He's 99% cash. Currently down $46 on the year.

This is all so true. I totally agree. So, why did Trump and everyone around him lie so much about their contacts with Russians? Why did they have that much contact with so many shady Russians in the first place? Why did Trump continually go against our own intelligence community? And why did Trump try at every turn to thwwart the investigation? Why did he fire Comey, when Comey basically handed him the election? Why didn't Trump agree to a sit down interview? Seems weird right? Maybe he has something else to hide? (I have many more un answered questions)

Isn't it weird that when Hillary was exonerated by the same institution, no one on the right would let it go. Still shouting "lock her up" and threatening to re-investigate her, but now, when that same institution supposedly exonerated Trump, they were right and Trump is vindicated?

I mean, this is a poker forum, does this story check out at all? Also, has anyone read the report or seen the evidence?

There was no exoneration, it was proven she did exactly what she was accused of.

Isnt it weird that they havent they gone after everyone in the Trump circle for doing the same and more with regards to unsecured and private communications?

Also, why is McConnell trying to block the release of the full report? If theres nothing to hide, whats the big deal? Has he read the report?


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What about my other questions?


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No one is trying to block the release. It can't be released before redaction because of the fallout from the starr reports. Calm your tits

I'd love to discuss but we need a low content thread.

Take it to the 2020 thread. It's defacto bfi politard thread anyways

McConnell is.


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