Take your money and run. Jesus.

You're holding shares in a company that cost $14,000 to get $100 of revenue per year. Think about that until the reality of it sinks it. You are holding a big bag of pure crap.

There is no long term play here. The long term looks like this:

Variance variance variance CRASH with no recovery

If you think you're good enough to trade the swings then do but your post above indicates you're not. Long terms play on this seem a near guaranteed way to light money on fire.

I was more curious about philosophy/correct way to think on something like that, not stock specific. But I appreciate the advice nonetheless.

And yes,

JUK,

Read up on martingale. What you're doing makes no sense based on the information in your post.

Well, I guess that swing would have worked. But I had no legit justification. I'll read on martingale. Anything in particular?

Yes. Look at how vol selling or holding XIV went for those particular martingalers in 2018.

The key to successful martingaling is being fully committed to it.

Betting $1 billion to double my initial 50c bet that ran against me isn't my idea of a good time.

why would u tell him to read martingale? exchanges impose max limits to bet like 20k so the theory is a complete looser.
even if not u'd need thousands tons of moneis to work

+1

Been buying alot of $EA calls

I meant to read up to understand why what he is doing makes no sense

Not familiar with these exchange limits, there are >$20k bets put on every second

Trading a ****ty product and martingaling are two separate things.

Grade A level thinking. If you're betting $2B to win back your initial $1, that means you're in a 1 in a ~billion situation (assuming 50-50 win/lose). You're more likely to die tomorrow than ever be in that situation.

Short vol is a ****ty product? More stupid analysis from an incompetent trader. And I'm talking about the guys who kept putting on more and more of the short vol trade in a martingale-like trade and eventually blew up accounts and even firms in Jan/Feb 2018. Hence the words "those particular martingalers". Jesus.
Yeah except markets aren't structured like that so your assumptions are irrelevant. Tail run events that destroy a martingale strategy are not only not extremely rare but also expected eventually. Grade D level thinking from you.

No dumbass, it's a ****ty product because it's a fragile inverse ETN. It's made for broke traders like you who can't trade the underlying futures or are too dumb to replicate a similar position themselves.

lol. Good job making a fool out yourself in the Brian thread. We all know you're not a trader* and have tiny balls.



edit: But you're right, I'm partially incompetent. Sold my NQ futures around 6600-6700 and look where they are now. But not at nearly as incompetent as you, calling me an idiot for not selling at 6250.

You say after the fact.
Seriously? Once again you show total ignorance. Guys with tens of millions in buy power were in XIV for size. They blew up firms. We have a guy on 2p2 who that happened to (not him, his firm). You'd know that if you're weren't some solo reject who occasionally plays index futures badly for small size.

And I'm certain I have/trade more than you after your comical/sad post with your NQ, which seems to be all you trade, and badly at that.

If by "we" you mean "youself and an antifa loser", then sure.

Nice attempt to red herring the fact that you are at least 1.5 standard deviations behind everyone here in reading comprehension and displayed that yet again with your idiotic and pointless commentary about martingaling that completely missed the point that everyone who isn't ******ed understood. It's comical how often and how frequently you fail to understand basic points and make dumb posts as a result.

You came out here swinging and got owned because you're seriously mentally deficient at reading comprehension and are provably a ****ty/non-trader from your own screenshots. Move along, clown. And try to say something useful, for everyone else's sake. Thanks. This is just more of your ******-level reading comprehension. You are (in all seriousness) worse at reading comprehension than any single person on this forum. You should do something about it as it's going to limit your life in many ways.

Owning a fund that invests most of its capital shorting VIX at all times, even when it's at decade lows at sub 10 levels. What could go wrong?

Yeah, and they're stupid if they're holding it under a year. The only advantage of holding XIV instead of trading the futures is if you plan to hold it for at least year to get long term capital gains. Otherwise, as I said, you're either broke or an idiot for trading XIV short term. Same goes for SPY.

Hmm, swing trading 7 NQ was a little under $1M in notional. How does that compare to your $37 SPY option trading? Big mouth, tiny balls. Funny how incoherent you get when you're on tilt.

Having an open brokerage account doesn't make you a trader. We (as in most active people in that thread) were just looking at the facts. You came up with 1 (random) trade in an entire year that you took based on some random news. Again, big mouth, no trades. Anyway, not going to beat a dead horse.

And you missed my point.

When all fails, just throw a bunch random insults. What happened to "cuck"? Did that go out of style? You need some new material. Try some coffee or pot.

Did you not say I was an "idiot" for not selling at ~6250, when I made clear I was swing trading it and shooting for at least 6600? You even said that it was freeroll for the bears, but of course you didn't take a trade. How ironic you call a trade a freeroll but don't take it in your own trading bet thread.

Again with the ****ty reading comprehension. Traders in these firms were martingaling short vol via XIV and other products as it blew up. They weren't "investing most of their capital shorting VIX at all times". It's like you don't even know what traders do. It worked great for years with nice returns. Which was why I brought it up. As a good example of market martingaling gone wrong. That went right over your head like most of what you read (you are seriously bottom 10% in reading comprehension) and here we are.
No one should ever listen to anything you say (not that they do anyway). XIV had a different risk/reward profile thanks to the daily rebalance. Lots of reasons to trade it over futures for lots of scenarios, and indeed plenty of professional traders preferred it. This is just you being a one trick pony (you posted your screenshot with NQ and zero other trades for days) and being so ignorant that you think the way you do it is the right way.
Your reading comprehension is so ****ing gone (or maybe your understanding of trading) that you're still quadrupling down on being wrong on what was said.

Dumbass, XIV is a fund that invests most of its capital shorting the VIX. That's what I referring to.

Dumbass, XIV was constructed from the futures market which any trader can replicate.

This isn't true hence the confusion.
Most traders can't replicate XIV because they don't have access to low cost swaps and the daily rebalancing is very expensive. It has a completely different risk and performance profile to what a trader could manage with just futures. But you're too much of a low-resolution dumbass to understand that. So let me put in picture format since you have trouble reading.



Understand? Of course you don't, you're a complete idiot and your "hurr durr I trade futures anyone who trades anything else is broke or stupid!" routine shows an embarrassing lack of understanding of what traders do and why, not to mention a total lack of curiosity.

Again, professional traders with far more money than you trade were using XIV over futures or SVXY. According to you they did that is because they're "broke". I think you're just an incurious idiot.

Man you guys are retarted

Really? How expensive is to roll a VX future per day? And how does that compare to extra taxes you have to shovel out if you trade ETNs?


Sure, arbitragers and long term holders. Otherwise you're an idiot, broke or too lazy if you're not taking the tax advantage futures offers.

Btw, how much money did have after XIV was liquidated?

What accelerating inflation expectations? Stop trying to sound smart/clever when you ignore plenty of other indicators that show the exact opposite. Increase in asset prices has accompanied both rising debt levels/lower rates which you keep ignoring and this is a decades long trend. Not to mention all the recent weak retail data and China saying overnight their inflation continued to slow in January.

The December-January increase is largely seasonal, check out the spike in the previous three years which were all pretty similar in China. I absolutely think you are wrong about what will come out of the February-March reads/a big credit explosion but we will see.

There are so many variables here Shuffle. I'm in the "wait for **** to happen" camp. If it's all going to be as catastrophic as you say you have heaps of time to make insane money. The tails won't be properly priced in until a long time after it starts moving.

In the meantime, sit back and enjoy the show of a strong US economy and the fed desperately pumping the market as hard it can whenever it corrects a meaningful amount.

LOL

If US 10 year yield ends the year above 3% I'd be shocked. Not that Shuffle cares, but I'm willing to bet my account here that it won't happen. If anything, I think it's more likely we end up below 2.50% (and an inverted curve) than above 3%.