2019 Trading Thread - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

Solid OP

How about we all list our starting positions on a % basis of trading account to see if we can gather further ideas from there.

76% cash

1% VKTX 2/15 9 calls @ .65
1% OSTK 1/18 12.5 @ 2.10
10% ostk stock @ 13.50
12% VICR stock @ 34.30

want to pick a good spot for some tsla puts and find other spots for earnings plays, but thats my current positions going into the new year..

what about you guys.

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01-01-2019 , 07:21 PM

ToothSayer

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Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by wait

Time to buy ESTR/ESTRW

I did say you have some great multibaggers, and you do, but just so no one misunderstands: ESTR is a SPAC structure that's dropped from $10 to $1.50 since you first liked it. This is the typical outcome of SPAC structures:

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Since 2003 approximately $20.4 billion of SPAC capital has been raised and 158 SPACs have been funded in the United States. Of the 161 SPACs that have been raised in the United States, 72 SPACs accounting for $6.5 billion have completed an acquisition with annualized returns to investors of -1.2%. Approximately 17 SPACs accounting for $3.4 billion have announced transactions with annualized returns to investors of -15%. Approximately 23 SPACs accounting for $6.5 billion are currently seeking an acquisition with annualized returns to investors of -16% and 49 SPACs accounting for $4.47 billion have liquidated with annualized returns to investors of about -2.5%

I see them as legal theft. The numbers above seem to agree. I said as much when you first liked it at $10 and said it's likely going to turn out badly, as these always do.

Perhaps there is a case to be made for why this is an awesome stock (ignoring the police raids, etc) but simply naming it isn't going to cut it imo given that the entire deck is tilted against you.

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01-02-2019 , 01:11 AM

wait

banned

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,115

Wasn't a raid they called the cops on their own employee who was stealing.

Also the source of your paragraph doesn't exist anymore.

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01-02-2019 , 01:28 AM

wait

banned

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,115

Re Police raids: ESTR is a roll-up and a lot of areas they service are actually done thru local JVs where they have a co-CEO operating the local areas. When they did an internal audit they noticed every year around $40-60k being stolen from the company. They looked into and realized the co-CEO of the JV was fake invoicing for $50k by expensing for garbage bags that never were being delivered. Once they concluded their investigation they called the cops on the idiot

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01-02-2019 , 04:18 AM

ToothSayer

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This looks like a grease fire. Zero revenue growth, tiny profit, very high financing costs. What is the basis of the hugely positive "deferred income tax" line? Take that out and they're losing their market cap every year, just like in 2014, 2015, 2016.

Seems like a typical SPAC that exists to get managers rich while stakeholders get screwed.

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01-02-2019 , 10:18 AM

MyrnaFTW

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Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 7,555

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW

Solid OP

How about we all list our starting positions on a % basis of trading account to see if we can gather further ideas from there.

76% cash

1% VKTX 2/15 9 calls @ .65
1% OSTK 1/18 12.5 @ 2.10
10% ostk stock @ 13.50
12% VICR stock @ 34.30

want to pick a <b>good spot for some tsla puts</b> and find other spots for earnings plays, but thats my current positions going into the new year..

what about you guys.

so much for a good spot

Quote

01-02-2019 , 01:48 PM

wait

banned

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 1,115

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Seems like a typical SPAC that exists to get managers rich while stakeholders get screwed.

Brazil though

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01-02-2019 , 03:33 PM

TimM

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Maybe we could hire them to clean up some BFI threads.

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01-02-2019 , 04:04 PM

#10

MyrnaFTW

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Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 7,555

decided to double my exposure on those issues and added bbby stock as a bottom fishing play, i obv should have done my tsla put play on monday , so now trying to see if its still a play

70% cash

2% VKTX 2/15 9 calls @ .70
1% OSTK 1/18 12.5 @ 2.10
10% ostk stock @ 13.50
12% VICR stock @ 34.30
5% BBBY stock @ 11.66

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01-02-2019 , 05:38 PM

#11

Clayton

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Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 32,226

apple revises guidance, seems like a good broad STFP

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01-02-2019 , 07:10 PM

#12

Clayton

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Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 32,226

decent little flash crash in currencies, mostly yen, some aussie dollar and pound also. **** is asploding.

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01-02-2019 , 09:25 PM

#13

wheatrich

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Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 21,239

AAPL is a weird company to me, they have lots of money, company makes lot of money and yet I can't think of a good reason to buy any of their products. Certainly not to upgrade one.

Looks like China figured that out.

We'll see how they do when 5G is a thing.

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01-02-2019 , 10:05 PM

#14

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

Quote:

Originally Posted by wheatrich

they have lots of money

--> more buy backs? Also, with the cash that they have, the dividend is likely to be stable, no?

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01-02-2019 , 10:11 PM

#15

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

Tim Cook just said they will continue buying back stock. That's not news though.

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01-02-2019 , 10:32 PM

#16

formula72

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 4,310

No that's news

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01-02-2019 , 10:43 PM

#17

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

It wasn't news to me.

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01-02-2019 , 11:04 PM

#18

formula72

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 4,310

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dream Crusher

It wasn't news to me.

Tim's statement during the flash crash of Aug 2015 moved the needle quite a bit. Horse **** or not, the market listens to him.

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01-02-2019 , 11:11 PM

#19

Dream Crusher

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 18,786

After Tim Cook said they will continue buy backs the stock remained down 7.55% in after hours trading...I don't think it was really a surprise.

But yeah, I guess Warren Buffet could come on tomorrow and say he's buying AAPL. I guess that would be positive news even though everyone should already know this. I did see someone post on YouTube that Buffett is going to sell all his AAPL so I guess it would definitely be news to him. People believe all sorts of weird crap.

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01-03-2019 , 03:36 PM

#20

As1an1nvas1on

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Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 4,352

What kind of grind setups you all got going on? Monitor setup/basic software/newsfeed/etc.

I'm moving and have to break down 6 24" monitor overkillness

Spoiler:

Anyone wanna share?

Spoiler:

Last edited by As1an1nvas1on; 01-03-2019 at 04:01 PM.

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01-03-2019 , 04:45 PM

#21

Clayton

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Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 32,226

my trading setup

Spoiler:

bonus picture of my risk manager's setup

Spoiler:

Last edited by Clayton; 01-03-2019 at 04:56 PM.

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01-03-2019 , 04:58 PM

#22

As1an1nvas1on

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Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 4,352

risk manager is nice, needs a bell

Clayton, what are your must-have-open on the monitors? Anything unconventional (trading related..)?

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01-03-2019 , 05:10 PM

#23

Clayton

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i usually have 4 monitors for trading, 1 monitor for twitch, 1 monitor for twitter, and 1 monitor for memes

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01-03-2019 , 05:53 PM

#24

ToothSayer

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Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Does anyone use line graphs? I can't stand the candles, too much useless information. Am I missing out?

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01-03-2019 , 06:38 PM

#25

phantom_lord

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 2,611

I remember when I started trading the guy training us pointed out that none of the experienced traders used candlesticks.

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