Short pretty big position in the S&p's at close today, but not so big I can't take heat. Upside likely very limited from here.

Also, still in my slv position. Lost a little bc of option decay but turned most into an equity position. Still sitting around breakeven.

Democrats just said the stock market has ver correlation to middle classa nd american economy.

do you guys agree?

Gotta be honest - I've never understood this train of thought. People were doing the same thing a couple months ago when spx got to 3000. Yet here we are. I would be more inclined to be short if price rejected at the close today, but as it didn't I wouldn't be surprised if you have some drawdown in the short term. I don't know what time frame you trade, so short term may not be something you're worried about.

I trade multiple timeframes. This is medium term for me. A couple months to a couple weeks. If I have time today I'll explain why its a good short.

Interesting times

I got some cheap long VXX calls spread out from Jan to march and I'm stuck in some shorts for now but I think it's best to stay out of the way until the new year IMO. I hope I'm wrong but I think until there's a down move on volume its a bad idea to try and fight this. I also think long vol has a better risk reward than short delta

How could you possibly know that?

Fundamentals aren't always the main driver of a market btw. Significant amount of equities players are very long, this does not lend itself well to more upside. S&p can trade higher in these situations, think 2017, but its unlikely.

Markets are more often driven by which players are stuck or trading emotionally. Reason I got long last christmas, reason to be short now.

Edit: Been in markets for awhile and have not seen this level of giddyness in years. Reminds me of the gold bull end in 2011. Lots of twitter trolling of long term bears etc. Seems like punishment is close.

TSLA and Boeing are looking like good buys despite everything. Elon shoring up 1.6 Bl for his Chinese factory in the last few days and planning on cutting prices on Chinese market cars to compete there.

Boeing firing its CEO is a good step but replaced by another inhouse who was head of GE lols... we will see how FAA plays with the new leadership.

Thoughts?

Theoretically, how long does unlimited liquidity keep the economy growing for until it all blows up? And what does blowing up look like?

Right. But if smart people see the end coming, and decide to get out early, no amount of fed liquidity will save the system. You can't force people to lend/buy junk bonds/refinance loans. I mean, 2008 had plenty of liquidity pumped in and it all ground to a halt because no one wanted to deal with anyone else because of all the toxic assets.

I still think the market ultimately controls when liquidity dries up and the fed is helpless. They can ease the early jitters but not much else.

Markets went down in 00-02 and 07-08 whole fed was lowering rates. Added liquidity does not always mean higher markets.

Again, agreeing with tooth. I think it's a bad assumption to think the fed is what pushes markets higher or lower. If you've experienced both bull and bear markets this is obvious.

Btw, still in my slv long and es short. Obvi taking heat on the index short but medium term this market is very risky. If we pull a '13 or '17 momo market I get stopped out. Sizing on this trade gives me about 150 es points of pain.

I think you kind of missed the boat on TSLA if you are buying now. TSLA is not the stock I'd want to buy when it's at all time highs. What goes up must come down, at least in the case of TSLA which has bounced around like a yo-yo for years. If you had bought at the high point of 2013 you would have been a very slight loser in late May 2019. That's pretty ridiculous when you consider that large tech companies had doubled, tripled, quadrupled or even more over that same time frame.

Even if it is moving to a higher trading range it's not like the stock would never return to this $430 level again. You'd have to think it's going to the moon to believe otherwise. TSLA has a $77 billion valuation. That's more than twice as much as F and about 50% more than GM.

I also don't view them cutting their car prices in China as a positive. Tesla should face serious competition from Chinese electric vehicle makers who will gladly steal TSLA's technology in the process.

I'm not a TSLA buyer, but please post five large tech companies that will double, triple, quadruple, or even more in the next six years.

I think tech is quite overvalued right now. I also don't think this bull market can sustain itself another 6 years.

My point was that TSLA has vastly underperformed relative to other tech companies.

Sept 2013
TSLA $190
FB $51
AAPL $69
AMZN $316
NFLX $44
GOOG $451
MSFT $33

This is especially concerning when you consider TSLA has been a far riskier stock than many of these.

Of course the date I picked was arbitrary but you can just look at the charts of these companies and see that TSLA has traded far differently. With the other tech companies, when the stock price would increase it would then move up some more, and then some more. That's not how TSLA has ever traded. TSLA moves up in price quickly and dramatically and then gets stuck in a range for 2 to 3 years. Perhaps you expect TSLA to start trading more like other major tech stocks, but I think there are signs that other tech stocks may now be trading more like TSLA.

And my point was that it is difficult to predict large cap ($25B+) tech companies that will double/triple/quadruple without perfect hindsight. It's even more difficult to know if you're going to hold through tough times, are you buying FB after it dipped right after the IPO?

You're using elite graph skills with hindsight.

Sure, you're right. From my perspective it just seems like terrible timing to buy a highly volatile stock AFTER it's just gone on a huge run nearly doubling in the last 3 months. I suppose if you've believed in the stock throughout then it makes sense but for those that didn't buy around $185 earlier this year but now want to buy it at $430, I don't get it.

Are you are completely disregarding all the craziness with Elon Musk and the SEC that tanked the stock?

someone I know keeps talkign to me about how crazy inflation is geting and is starting too to get.

what are your guys' thoughts? shuffel you seem to keep up on that stuff

guys, it's the FED.

.

Inflation in what? CPI? US dollar? M1? M2? Pretty tough to bet against inflation over a long time period. I don't think anybody considers inflation in the U.S. crazy right now. Look at the 1970s leading up to Paul Volcker as FED chair for kinda crazy or late 1700s, Civil War era for crazy.