Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
The market is guaranteed to keep going up through Jan. opex, probably 5-10% upside between now and late January. Crash-up scenario just keeps playing out as long as Fed is printing money. Balance sheet will experience a significant contraction next month when all of these term repos don't get rolled over ... or will they? Fed will become a permanent fixture in the repo market at some point, though there may be more volatility before they are forced to resume term repos in even bigger size.
Meanwhile, $60bn Tbills will get monetized every month between now and next Spring.
Forecast is straight up until then, flat trading range through middle of 2020 ... then liquidity will be extremely low and Fed will be printing even more massive amounts of cash, far bigger than they are printing atm by the end of next year.
How could you possibly know that?
Fundamentals aren't always the main driver of a market btw. Significant amount of equities players are very long, this does not lend itself well to more upside. S&p can trade higher in these situations, think 2017, but its unlikely.
Markets are more often driven by which players are stuck or trading emotionally. Reason I got long last christmas, reason to be short now.
Edit: Been in markets for awhile and have not seen this level of giddyness in years. Reminds me of the gold bull end in 2011. Lots of twitter trolling of long term bears etc. Seems like punishment is close.