yep - sorry

DGLY is up by 11%+ while AAXN is down... so if you want... i edited it in for now. but jupiter has to make that decision.

Charlie's swap is ok. Let's make that the last swap. All picks are final now.

tnxs

Awesome!!


Thanks Jupiter0 for getting the ball rolling with these contests - didn't expect to have much interest in making new picks this year, with the market being so turbulent. But these contests are such a unique opportunity to commit to some picks, without actually having to put any $ down. Used my results from last year to make some different picks this year - can then use my results from this year to perhaps may some different picks next year lol ... will see how things go ...

And the spreadsheet looks fantastic - thanks again BooLoo!!


Here's hoping 2019 is kind to us all

good luck mori****a system! there's some good candidates for biggest loss this year

Swinging for the fences baby. Ain't worth winning or losing if you don't win or lose big!

Morhsita: You're a patent attorney, right? Do you have any updated thoughts on DGLY? I've been kind of keeping a loose eye on it and their litigation sounds promising, but as I recall when we last discussed it you thought there was potentially something there but too many question marks to seriously consider investing in it. Has something changed?

Long: PRQR, ALNY, PTCT, RCKT, TWLO, NTNX, TSG
Short: GBTC, AGN, QNST

Shorting 3x levered ETFs

You're better than that!

I ditched them and changed it to penny stocks and lotto ticket DGLY

What changed is an investment by several Kansas-based firms that gave them enough money to backstop the company from bankruptcy and proceed through the litigation. Funding is in the form of dilutive warrants that are convertible at $3 a share and are equivalent to 1/3rd of the float dilution wise, but given the potential damages it is not too worrisome.

DGLY's counsel has done a bang up job and pretty much everything you could reasonably ask of them. Home court in Kansas, in a federal circuit that doesn't handle patent cases very often, in front of a jury that most likely doesn't handle patents at all, but will view the case as a poor local Kansas company getting shafted by this big bad out of state company called AAXN.

Further, invalidity of the patents is no longer a defense as somehow AAXN's counsel shanked 6 IPRs for invalidating the patents. IPRs normally have a 50-80% chance of invalidating a patent, so that in itself is remarkable. The only thing AAXN can assert is non-infringement as a defense, and that will be determined by the Kansas jury.

Seems ripe for a repeat of Carnegie Mellon v. Marvell, in which Marvell got hit for something ridiculous (1.2b in damages) by the Pittsburgh jury when Carnegie Mellon was only asking for 100k a year license initially. It won't be that extreme, as back of the envelope calculation for damages is x% (reasonable royalty) * 500m (rough total revenue from AAXN on the related product while the patent was in force) * possible 3x multiple for damages if willful infringement is found, so it could be anywhere from 5m to 600m. But if you look at the market cap and how the stock seems to undergo a massive short squeeze of 30%+ every now and then on fake news, even a 30-60m judgment could be another Porsche/Volkswagen moment for shorty.

It's up to the counsel and the Kansas jury now. However, if the Kansas jury doesn't rule in DGLY's favor, then the stock will unquestionably be a zero so it is a binary lotto ticket.

Well, I picked 4 stocks and ZCL just got taken out so I don't what to do with that profit, more PDEX I guess. I don't love anything right now besides those other 3. Maybe WEF.to (western forest products), no debt and will be able to withstand the downturn in the industry

Just checked out this contest...and noticed ASAP17 getting bitchslapped by reality so far after stalking btc and flipping his picks and calling him an "automatic fade"...btc is on a contest-winning 33.2% profit while ASAP17 is on a contest losing -33.2%.


8 months to go...DreamCrusher also doing nicely, and glenrice and punter.

P.S. Someone with edit access needs to fix the typo on GTBY for btc to GBTC.

Yeah so? It's just for fun which is why I did that, trying to beat Brian's performance from last year. The contest last year which you posted in a bunch but couldn't even produce 10 names yourself (lmao).

In reality though going long 2 names and short 8 probably wasn't the best plan given the current market conditions and my own views on the market lol.

Come on dude. You're claiming you took the opposite side of the guy you've been stalking and ripping to pieces on his trades (wrongly) in order to lose as much as possible (that was Brian's claim on what he was trying to do last year?) That doesn't even make sense. At least own how much you clowned yourself here/got owned by btc.
I wasn't participating. I named one item (GBTC) short as a by-the-by, which returned 75% or so...not bad.
I went long 2 and short 8 and am down 6%, which is a lot less than 33%. So btc has shown decent skill here in picking winners over a sample of 10, unlike you and me. The year isn't over but it's been outstanding performance at this point and the guy deserves his due.

I gave credit btc in the trading thread already not to mention I'll admit it here. His picks have been crushing it so far, definitely picked the wrong person to fade (again, so far...). Still doesn't change that I disagree with how he arrives at his conclusions a lot of the time...

You didn't short BTC, Sam was nice enough to put that up when you wouldn't stop posting in that thread despite having zero actual picks and since it was just for fun required no effort but nice try.

You actually tried at your picks and are still getting smoked despite having a couple huge winners in DGLY, GBTC and TLRY on the short side. Impressive TS.

TS seems to have an unhealthy obsession with ASAP

I'm getting smoked he does have a point. Btc and he deserve their smack talk, I called him the ultimate fade. Sad I didn't choose TS although I'm still hopeful for EOY to make this less of a disaster. I got shorts in stuff like SNAP, IBM and GE. If the market declines at all they will be the first to see outflows. TGOD has corrected a lot off the highs, and despite the move in oil RIG hasn't really be apart of the recent run higher. Who knows where BTC is going although the action has been fairly constructive this year I have to admit.

I sure hope btc (the user) has been profiting a ton IRL because his picks have been great, would be a shame otherwise.

I think it's pretty cool a lot of us nailed the oil play. Basically timed the bottom.

MVP going for dumbest person on this forum? Or maybe he's just high. Congrats bro.

DGLY hasn't had their court case yet, but they will before year/stock contest end. That and bitcoin are my draw outs for if the market keeps going up given that I'm mostly short momentum. But I think the market will see a 2018 style correction closer to end of year.

Confirmed high as a kite. Though if I was high I wouldn't be posting on 2p2. Go and enjoy your drugs man.

FYI, I'm LONG bitcoin in this contest (I was short bitcoin last contest for 72% profit) as there were decent odds (<50% but >20%) of a run by end of year.

Thinks Bitcoin core will fail and will soon drop under $3000

Goes Long Bitcoin