FSLY upcoming IPO looks promising. Will probably grab some shares assuming it doesn't open up 100%

lol BYND.

Revolve, Fiverrr, Crowdstrike all out of the gates and Slack on horizon.

also Zoom, Chewy...

Really long piece on WeWork founder Adam Neumann. He talks like a Hollywood producer. The difference between delusions and grandeur is execution

As much crap as the forum has given UBER & LYFT since their IPOs and I'd say pretty much all of it deserved, the former is back above it's IPO price and the latter is $17 higher since it's lows around that ER. Both being added to Russell 1000 seems to have provided some stability.

They both need KYD (know your driver). Lyft is working with Kim Kardashian to get parolees onboarded. I'm all for second chances, but I do not want my kids playing craps with who gets to drive them home.

I love the idea of plant based meat substitutes but I don't see how these don't become completely commoditized especially in the fast food space.

Today I had a BYND taco and BYND Bowl at Taco Cabana. In a blind taste test I couldn't have told you if it was Beyond Meat, Impossible Burger, ground beef, or dog food that I was eating. That's because the spices masked the flavor. I can see the same issue in most fast food applications. Burger King puts so much mayo and ketchup on a whopper that even if Impossible Burger was superior to generic brands (and that's a huge if), it's unlikely consumers would even notice. Fast food joints are all about keeping their costs low so margins on these things will be crushed into oblivion.

Generic competition is a good point, but the flip side of that is market size -- there's so much low-quality meat out there in the fast food world that could easily be replaced with plant products. BYND is a novelty right now, so BK can charge an extra $1 for it, but longer-term the meat substitutes will achieve better economies of scale and will be cheaper than meat at retail.

I think the market for this stuff is going to be HUGE and it makes sense that they can charge a premium now given the limited competition. However, isn't the market size a double edged sword? The bigger the market, the more likely it will be flooded by generics. If it's a niche product then it can continue to occupy a small space on the grocery shelves and charge a premium with next to no competition. Once it goes mainstream then there will be competition from store brands. As an example, we'll see Walmart introduce a Great Value meat substitute. As it expands from a niche market it becomes a real threat to existing meat producers who will not only get in the meat supplement business but also invest heavily in it. BYND being acquired seems unlikely given it's lofty valuation.

It appears Forbes read my posts ITT and decided to write an article based on them: https://www.forbes.com/sites/olivier.../#4b35ddbb5ea2

That's a good article. It does leave out that FIZZ's CEO is an 82-year-old, senile, vocal Trump fan, which is not great for a brand aimed at millenials. https://www.motherjones.com/food/201...te-statements/

BYND would probably be a good short, if you could borrow it at 0%. As is, I don't see any shorts available. You could buy deep ITM puts, but those are pretty expensive as well -- for the Feb expirations BYND would have to get to 135 just for you to break even.

Someone find me a recent IPO that isn't down multiple percent today, rush to the exits indeed... Just a reminder guys the lockup expirations are looming as are some of these being added to index funds. UBER, LYFT, & WORK all look especially awful.

FYI the LYFT date is wrong, that passed already back in August. Not sure about the others.

Correct, my mistake for not catching that in the tweet, they pulled forward the lockup when this was the original date. Others seem accurate...

BTW I wanted to add this in this previous post but who on earth is going to buy Pelaton when they come out? All this focus on Wework distracting from what a flawed business model/headwinds they face. Just don't buy what they are selling that they are changing the game on exercise bikes. Very tiny moat, a bike that costs $2k (and still isn't close to profitable)? Pass, don't care how loyal their current customer base is.

I thought WORK did not have a lockup period as it was a direct listing?

I am investing in DataDog (DDOG), Cloudflare (NET), PagerDuty (PD) and Slack (WORK).

It's funny for an index that is launching a good portion of the IPOs, Nasdaq not exactly doing their job when it comes to updating a basic company profile. They have it listed as December 17 (also still have LYFT lockup date for tomorrow) despite the fact you are absolutely right it was a direct listing so there seem to be no restrictions on selling.

Could help explain why there is such big selling pressure (seeing a lot of short term put buying, some of it deep ITM), unlike some of the others like BYND with tiny floats and big short interest. Would be curious if you could expand on why you are bullish WORK, seems like Microsoft's Teams & to a lesser extent Discord is eating their lunch.

I've been buying PTON as it bounces off 26.50. It's an interesting company with a fanatical base often described as a cult. I can't imagine it being a long term success tbh, but the strange mixture of fanaticism and hatred reminds me a bit of Tesla. I think this creates a scenario that is ripe for some super wonky **** to happen. Wonky **** like a bynd/tlry style 10x jump.

Can't endorse this one, their CEO honestly thought they left money on the table dude. How it trades in the first day has mattered significantly to pretty much all the recent IPOs & retail/open market has been doing a good job of sorting the dogs/money losers. What does this look like? Not my style, need to see some price history in the public market first, clearly the private market is a worse evaluater of valuation right now.

PTON is advertising a ton (cult like products shouldn't have to do this!) & lol at how much CNBC is pumping today given their parent Comcast in an investor. They have those copyright issues with the music they are playing & it isn't a new concept. You have to scale massively for the current valuation to make sense, is it a movement or a fad? Safe bet is the latter, BYND is overpriced but it's easy to see them at least becoming profitable. PTON already has big margins on their $2k bikes and the sub service and the net loss 5xd this year. What am I missing here other than good customer loyalty from those who already have it? You try to go for lower price points and move bigger volume there goes your margins. Outside of urban areas, even in the suburbs the TAM is a joke compared to how many they will convert.

I agree. My bet is that it goes to 150 more than ~ 4% of the time. That is probably hopeful thinking, but luckily I'm in a position to take the risk.

I really hate Peloton as an investment. They're selling hyper-expensive stationary bikes, and losing money because they have to advertise so much. Home exercise equipment goes through fads -- Nordic Track, Bowflex, Tae Bo, etc etc. Peloton is no different. Most of their bikes are going to get about 3 months of use and then end up in the basement. There's no end game where they print money.

BYND at least can tell a story about replacing meat altogether and changing the way we live. It might be bullshit, but it feels very future-y and you can't be 100% sure it won't happen. PTON... sells bikes.

I'm not sure that Nordic Track or Bowflex are negative comparisons, or fads. Nordic Track has been around since 1975, and Bowflex has been around since 1986. That's some pretty serious staying power.

I've never used Peloton, but isn't their moat the streaming/ interactive subscription services, and not just the bikes themselves? Why wouldn't they be able to easily expand that into other forms of exercise machines such as treadmills, rowing, etc.?

Given the popularity/willingness of people to pay for both gym memberships and in home entertainment subscriptions, it seems plausible this hybrid model could be the next thing.

I think they are trying to patent the interactive stuff, but I don't see how that flies. Without a patent, where's the moat?

May not fly, but looks to have wheels.