I pmed you the more useful advice, but I'll also say this.

Your brain needs time to reset from winning. Winning sends it nuts because it surges various brain chemicals that interfere with reason and caution.

It doesn't do this to everyone but it obviously does it to you. If you have that kind of mind/attachment to trading - and it's both good and bad because unless you want to be a low-return weak-tight grind robot who stinks at trading and leaves most of the alpha on the table, the reward system works in your favor when looking for trades - it sharpens your mind and creates interest and focus.

Since you clearly have that kind of mind, you need to not trade again until it resets properly. That might be 20 minutes, it might be weeks. I don't know of another solution for someone who finds trading a big rush of positive emotion and brain chemicals.

I don't think you have the other problem - tilt trading, which is a hilariously maladaptive anger/cognitive dissonance based response to losing that occurs in beta males (cucks) and the dumber alpha males - but if you do there are different ways of dealing with that.

What are some ways of dealing with that?

It's a much harder problem. Dissonance is much harder to fix because happiness and good outcomes improve your emotional regulation abilities, whereas failure and dissonance takes them away (it lowers your status which decreases your emotional regulation abilities and causes a kind of panic to regain your status - it's pure chimp stuff where a loss of status was very harmful to immediate wellbeing).

What to do about it depends a great deal on the individual. Being unable to cope with failure, having unrealistic expectations, tying your worth up in the results of gambling, are very different to the momentary rush of positive brain chemicals that temporarily impair judgment. Some are deep problems (personality disorder type stuff where serious work will be required to overcome low thresholds and self awareness, probably with a good psychologist), some are normal but psychologically embedded, some can be fixed with merely developing diversions and habits or setting up realistic expectations.

For quite a few people, sizing smaller, below the status and safety loss threshold, is sufficient to fix it. I suspect the latter is a lot of the reason why traders do better with smaller bet sizing, as mrbaseball points out, even if they have an edge.

That's dope. I'm going to try that. Thanks man.

Yeah that's where I really want to get to. My best edge and nothing more. I'll show you guys the chart in a bit.


Absolutely what I want to do, and why I wrote you guys.

This thread is awesome. Anyone who says otherwise is wrong. I've learned more in here from you guys than almost anywhere else on the web for this field. Appreciate all the wisdom gang.

This was the setup today right at the open. Helps to have context that these things were getting pretty close to oversold after days of selling off, and the market at large was opening with a glimmer of green (that I figured would fade).

I'm by no means an expert day trader, but this **** trades itself at the open in my experience (something like 7/7 on that setup). You'll spot where I made the obvious good trade, and then where I decided to make another.

The reason WHY is simple, I understand it now. Because I'm not just a novice day trader, sometimes I trade momentum over days/weeks. I think I had the constant FOMO on a broader recovery beyond this quick play I was making. And I think that's going to be something I struggle with a long time. I guess you're either a day trader or you aren't. It's tough to be both.



I may solve that with very clearly distinct times of the day for one kind of buy/sell over the other. Anyway buying the open for a broader recovery is for suckers. And in the end I didn't, and in the end the whole sector faded. So at least I trusted my instincts. I just hate that I didn't have the discipline to not click buy the second time. Gotta be a hero...

We have a lot of thoughtful capable people, it's the best forum on web for stocks and it's not close. The winners don't really share their edges and deeper thoughts, that's the only thing that's wrong. But they'll throw off non-specifics if you ask.

have you filtered your trades for time of day? could be beneficial if you saw a scatter plot and realized that you weren't winning money between x and y oclock

Definitely this! Experienced this myself first hand the hard way.

Looking at statistical data will teach you not to overtrade. When I started out I filtered my results and saw that I was profitable around the open and basically consistently lost when I screwed around mid day. Now I do a fair amount of backtesting and I don't take for granted how difficult it is to come up with profitable strategies. Assuming I can wing it and make money without doing my homework is irresponsible. If I see a situation I like, I do extensive research to validate the thesis.

Rafiki,



Also, pretty much what everyone else said.

Wait a minute? You look at charts? You base trading decisions off of price action? You need to be insulted! You need to be ostracized! You should be burned at the stake for touting such foolish astrology! You deserve to be called derogatory names

Only weak tight idiots who peddle in straw men and think "technical analysis" means "any looking at charts" deserve derision. You're basically doing the fallacy of equivocation.

Me: TA - finding repeated patterns in charts and believing you can trade on them - is bull****. The signals are necessarily tiny if they exist, especially for a retail trader, and provide no edge relative to other possible edges. In fact, they take your attention from where the actual alpha is and hence detract from your edge.

You: You have ever looked at a price chart! You have! You believe in TA! QED!

Me: Apart from that being the fallacy of equivocation, you're a ****ing idiot.

You: I'm so insecure I'm going to be passive aggressive and sarcastic about the use of TA, and act like a butthurt 10 year old! Yeah!

That sums up our various conversations, and your intellectual depth.

10:17am, zero trades made, feeling in great control.

I know it's only day 1. But I think putting myself out there to you guys and taking the advice and criticism helped me at least for today.

I will almost sure close my screen by 11am and call it a day till 3.



edit: One winning trade! Have not chased. If no setup presents itself I'm outie.

Okay. So things like support and resistance and trends and momentum are all nonsense. Price actions mean nothing and should never be considered in trading decisions. Got it! I hope everyone who even considers using those techniques quits immediately. Otherwise they will all soon be deluded and broke!

Support and resistance are pure nonsense, yes. I don't know what you mean by trends. There is some (weak) evidence for long term momentum - which is to be expected because of the business/rate cycle, none for short.

Again, use your brain. The edge from these signals cannot be other than tiny because they're algorithmic.

No, stuff like "huh durr the line bounced three times off this spot! There's resistance!!!" mean nothing. It's mind rot. Stuff like "there's a lot of volume selling on this news" can be considered. Simple observations of price and volume are not TA. It's the belief that they form patterns (like support and resistance and channels and heads and shoulders) that are bull**** and worthless. They are random patterns in noise.

I've had this out with morons before. TA losers frequently say "the line bounced three times off this spot! There's resistance!!!"" like clockwork. But most inflections are market inflections, and yet the cucks who do technical analysis don't even correct for this obviously correctable noise. That's how I know they're ****ing morons. I can do TA better than people who've done it for year by applying a small amount of basic signal analysis.
You're the queen of the straw men. They will simply have no edge and slowly bleed to fees, which is what happens to 95+% of traders, most of whom use technical analysis (it's the main technique for newbies and idiots, because it's simple and provides lots of signals to feast on, a bit like astrology).

Now down 50% and that's with the stock down $10 in the last couple of sessions. Adding, hold, or dump? Curious since you don't believe TA. You got a lot of the big tech earnings tonight with AAPL, AMZN, & GOOGL.

A good example of a trend would be the Netflix chart

But you have no idea how I trade or what causes me to pull the trigger. They are typically based on short term momentum. But almost everyone who trades at all except I guess you, will admit that price chart actions have influence over their trading decisions.

So I will stop egging you on as it isn't worth it. You could actually be a useful member of this forum if you weren't such a stubborn, insulting, douchebag constantly talking out of your ass and looking to belittle others instead of just adding to the discussion like a rational and reasonable human being.

Wait, support and resistance are nonsense? If you see a stock selling off and all of a sudden volume increases massively at a level and the stock isn't dropping below it- that doesn't count for anything?

I understand an exact price is nonsense, but if you see a stock fall toward a certain level a bunch of times and each time the volume picks up and the price rebounds from either above or a little below that level how is that not a support level?

Cucks and morons for life bud . It's pretty hilarious how he just adopted that from Trump and his supporters. An Australian to boot.

Man you guys gotta see the weed charts today, it's something

the best part of trump not being in office eventually will be the disappearance of the word "cuck/cucks" from the internet's everyday chatter.

No, that's suppply and demand in the moment. Support and resistance is the notion that because something bounced off a point previously, it will behave differently in some way because of that.
Because it's not. Even if support and resistance were real, the vast majority of what you believe to be support and resistance levels would in face be noise. Think about that for a minute.

The below is a random walk. Notice the extremely strong patterns in it - support and resistance, trend, channels, breakdown, support becoming resistance, etc. You'll find these patterns in most random walks. And this is a random walk of just price; if you added random volume as well, the signals would get even stronger.



I've been through before. mrbaseball et al have no rebuttal, hence they slink away like cowards and refuse to debate or even engage meanginfully, coming back every now and then to reignite the debate with trolling. They have no brains, just a religion...there are traders who trade on astrology signals also. People see patterns in noise all the time, then confirmation bias does the rest.

The evidence is conclusive that support and resistance don't exist. It's been studied. mrbaseball is just a deluded weirdo who can't think, hence he bypasses any substance on this topic but regularly flashes his insecurity, like above.

The claim isn't as strong for momentum. There is some data that indicates long term momentum is real. Short term momentum appears not to exist, at least in equities. There's some evidence for momentum in commodities, which mrbaseball used to trade, which probably explains some of his persistent delusion.

Anyway, my main point is that not even that TA doesn't doesn't exist. It's that even if it had some predictive or explanatory value, it would necessarily be small (since it's algorithmic), and hence is a noisy distraction from where real alpha comes from, which is very -EV for generating real alpha.

Can someone ask TS what he's doing with his NFLX position? It was such an excellent r/r so it must be even more so now right? Speculating on short term OTM puts with no spread is his bread and butter, wouldn't want to miss that insight.

PETS goes ex-dividend tomorrow

From 10/20

"Seeing a lot of big call buys in Caesars (CZR) over the last couple weeks leading into their analyst and investment day on Tuesday next week. They just emerged out of bankruptcy and given how strong Vegas has been over the past few quarters, looks like a decent opportunity. A lot of action in Boyd Gaming BYD as well leading into their ER on Thursday, similar sort of Vegas play. There were some doubts about their geographic over exposure since they sold their stake in Borgata but have been crushing it on improving margins/EBITDA from their new acquisitions. Strong management team that has recovered from a lot of questionable decisions the company made into the Recession."

& then from 11/3

"Both of these had nice pops post ER, took some off of each and rolled. All the quarters from the Vegas casinos were very strong considering the shooting happened during this previous quarter. MGM is reporting next week to finish out the group, chart isn't as strong as the others which is why I'd be more cautious ST."

BYD hitting my target today, incredible run from last ER. Still have CZR but took more off the table on the move this morning, I actually think the supposed benefit from the Wynn news is a bit overstated. Not to mention the domestic players are drafting a bit off the amazing Macau numbers posted last month, not sure how sustainable the comps are going to be going forward.