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2018 Trading Thread 2018 Trading Thread

01-22-2018 , 08:07 PM
If your friend "kills it" and you asked him what to buy with the intention to buy what he said to buy then you should have bought at 16. Seems silly to ask our opinion.
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01-22-2018 , 10:17 PM
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Originally Posted by ibavly
Guys, calm down, I didn't post that to rip on anybody, I don't participate in the egofest part of this thread


We were talking about handicapping earnings dates, and we both ended up agreeing that by buying Jan options you were probably capturing earnings. Netflix ended up announcing earnings today, obviously one day too late to capture that value.
Yeah I think there a business in handicapping earnings dates. Seems surprising but I've heard a few people talk about it.
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01-23-2018 , 07:24 AM
lol SPY just fell 0.2% because of an earthquake.

I mean, the big one hitting San Fran is overdue and is about 2%/year it seems, and it'll wipe a good chunk off your portfolio instantly (as well as send BrianTheMick near broke), but this is a bit silly.
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01-23-2018 , 08:57 AM
Earthquake or nuke test?
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01-23-2018 , 11:22 AM
POINT TWO PERCENT, sound the alarms boys! Earthquake is going to wipe us all out!

SPY up 6% in 14 trading sessions, I'm sure these are the things we should be worried about as traders.
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01-23-2018 , 09:56 PM
Nice to see my VLO Valero announce a big buyback and dividend increase today. Prob the only thing that can keep this momentum going. Stock is almost as parabolic as russell growth index...
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01-23-2018 , 10:03 PM
Got unstuck in a lot of my shorts. WATT RIOT DPW etc

WATT at $33: kicking myself for being stubborn and always getting upside down on these pos stocks

WATT at $18: Shorting is so easy
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01-24-2018 , 08:29 AM
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Originally Posted by gna
buddy is pushing me to buy some vrx. thoughts?
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Originally Posted by gna
something about fda approving some drug and hype around it. not really sure but this guy kills it (or at least appears to) and I told him to let me know next time he made a big bet on something.he picked it up at 16 and still holding.
VRX is down a lot today thanks to two downgrades. One is Piper Jaffray, who says:
Quote:
Shares of Valeant Pharmaceuticals have more than doubled since the April 2017 low of under $9, Piper Jaffray analyst David Amsellem tells investors in a research note. The rally has little to do with underlying fundamentals, and much more to do with perceptions surrounding liquidity bankruptcy risk, the analyst contends. After looking at the underlying dynamics of Valeant's segments, Amsellem says, "It is clear to us that little has changed." Further, he does not believe new product launches are significant enough to drive sustainable EBITDA growth. The analyst continues to believe that loss of exclusivities and payer pressures will continue to be headwinds. The current valuation "does not make sense to us," Amsellem concludes. He keeps an Underweight rating on Valeant with a $12 price target.
The other is Goldman Sachs who initiated at sell with an $18 target.

Their points are solid and it's not a great bet. I hope you didn't listen to your friend.
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01-24-2018 , 08:58 AM
How low do Trump and company want to take the dollar???

Getting wild
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01-24-2018 , 09:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jb514
Got unstuck in a lot of my shorts. WATT RIOT DPW etc

WATT at $33: kicking myself for being stubborn and always getting upside down on these pos stocks

WATT at $18: Shorting is so easy
Did you just short outright? I bought a bunch of $20 puts with a 1/19 expiry shortly after the Ajit Pai pump on Twitter and that turned out nicely.
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01-24-2018 , 01:33 PM
Let's say I have some strategies that require a degree of automation. Has anyone had luck with this without being a programmer themselves? Should I be hiring a high-end programmer? Should I be asking to retrofit an existing trading bot with my strategies, or building something from scratch?
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01-24-2018 , 01:58 PM
Existing trading bot/program for sure. I wrote my own program for semi-automation (fast entries, algos for beating the spread, complex watchlist parameters, buy/sell buttons spread out how I like), but if it's just an algorithm that buys or sell on a signal you program then you're better off going for an existing architecture. It's tested, it's cheap, it's fast, and it's easy to tweak without knowing code. There are trade stations that allow complex scripting of this stuff that's pretty easy to set up and understand without knowing code. I don't know them well but looked at them briefly before deciding to do my own thing. MetaTrader might be one. There are forums dedicated to this stuff.
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01-24-2018 , 02:20 PM
This is one of those spots where every time I buy VXX for 3-4 days I always get roaster. Therefor I will not buy VXX.

Typing this just to get the compulsion out of my damn greedy fingers. You dip buyers will surely make money
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01-24-2018 , 02:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
VRX is down a lot today thanks to two downgrades. One is Piper Jaffray, who says:

The other is Goldman Sachs who initiated at sell with an $18 target.

Their points are solid and it's not a great bet. I hope you didn't listen to your friend.
he said and i quote " theyre just saying these things to lower the stock and get in at a lower price" he also said he added a bunch more at $20. delusional or can he see the future?
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01-24-2018 , 02:50 PM
Straight up delusional. I was arguing strongly for this short at $100 by the way (although I'm neutral now), so I'm not new to VRX.
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01-24-2018 , 02:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
This is one of those spots where every time I buy VXX for 3-4 days I always get roaster. Therefor I will not buy VXX.

Typing this just to get the compulsion out of my damn greedy fingers. You dip buyers will surely make money
buy and hold hvi.to easy game
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01-24-2018 , 03:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
This is one of those spots where every time I buy VXX for 3-4 days I always get roaster. Therefor I will not buy VXX.

Typing this just to get the compulsion out of my damn greedy fingers. You dip buyers will surely make money
I think my post actually preceded the recovery today within a few mins. I may be on to something here.

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01-24-2018 , 04:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
I think my post actually preceded the recovery today within a few mins. I may be on to something here.

The complex strategy that you probably discovered is called "don't ****ing buy VXX"
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01-24-2018 , 06:12 PM
Bought ACT the Vice ETF. It has some cannabis stocks. TDY In the aerospace defense sector looks good here. PEG ratio about 1.00. Trump keeps talking about a strong military. Bull flag looks ready to breakout. Looking at the sector etfs ITA XAR PPA . Each very different.

Last edited by Jupiter0; 01-24-2018 at 06:23 PM.
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01-25-2018 , 03:28 AM
Added STM on yesterdays pull back leading into earnings.
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01-25-2018 , 05:35 PM
So much dry powder for a collapse in pot stocks. Nice to take a break for a few days as it unfolds.
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01-25-2018 , 11:12 PM
Can anyone explain to me why hedge funds who are 60% net long are say 120% long and 60% short instead of going say 80% long and 20% short and not using leverage?
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01-25-2018 , 11:53 PM
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Originally Posted by andr3w321
Can anyone explain to me why hedge funds who are 60% net long are say 120% long and 60% short instead of going say 80% long and 20% short and not using leverage?
Because they figure their longs and shorts are un- or inversely correlated and therefore if the longs are down on average, shorts will be up and vice versa.
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01-26-2018 , 12:34 AM
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Originally Posted by TimM
Because they figure their longs and shorts are un- or inversely correlated and therefore if the longs are down on average, shorts will be up and vice versa.
I understand why they long and short my question is about the percentages. Why do they use leverage and buy 180% of their account value with 120 long/60 short to achieve 60% net long when it seems the same can be achieved using only 100% of their account value with 80 long/20 short.
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01-26-2018 , 12:48 AM
fixed...
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Last edited by coinflipper; 01-26-2018 at 12:55 AM.
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