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2018 Trading Thread 2018 Trading Thread

12-19-2018 , 03:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by juan valdez
Kind of like the midterms I think the play is sell vix (vxx or UVXY call spreads) and hedge a bit with some short delta.
Could have closed this without sweating the announcement

What happened to FB?
2018 Trading Thread Quote
12-19-2018 , 04:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by juan valdez
Could have closed this without sweating the announcement

What happened to FB?
FB was a double wammy of yet another user information scandal (NYT posted that all the major tech companies had full API access to the full facebook account including private messages of anyone who used their third party services), then just when that was exhausted the Washington Post released an article saying that Washington DC DA had filed a lawsuit against FB for their original data breaches. That's when the bigger money decided "**** that" and the volume came in.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
12-20-2018 , 05:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wait
Not many trades posted recently so ill do a few.

I'm currently short VGR and SNAP. And long APHA.
VGR was 11.60 and now 9.47
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12-20-2018 , 02:17 PM
SNAP <$5 is a deal. SNAP <$6 is a bargain

FB... woof
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12-20-2018 , 05:15 PM
just wanted to let the thread know, biggest perma bear closed out his last short and went long VICR @ 34.30 and OSTK @ 13.50 , which probably means market goes down another 205 from here.
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12-20-2018 , 09:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
just wanted to let the thread know, biggest perma bear closed out his last short and went long VICR @ 34.30 and OSTK @ 13.50 , which probably means market goes down another 205 from here.
thought process?
2018 Trading Thread Quote
12-20-2018 , 09:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WorldBoFree
thought process?
Vicr is one I love it's growth momo and valuation behind it. Jb got me onto it at 27 , sold in the low 50's and recent action tells me it is hopefully near bottom

Ostk has obviously crashed,but price action today and yesterday is telling me someone is most likely accumulating.

This is also one of the rare times I'm net long , and will use those two longs to enter some new shorts over the next couple days.

And I meant to say 20% not 205 obvs
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12-21-2018 , 03:54 AM
Buyers waiting for lower prices to get in heavily.
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12-24-2018 , 11:23 AM
Anyone else still holding on to a FB put? Thoughts on today’s action? Do you think this is a bull trap or an actual turnaround?
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12-24-2018 , 11:40 AM
What strike and expiry do you have?
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12-24-2018 , 11:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CandyKreep
Anyone else still holding on to a FB put? Thoughts on today’s action? Do you think this is a bull trap or an actual turnaround?
Some people with lots of money decided it was dirt cheap here and a nice way to bet on a market turnaround. Continued bullish analyst with high PT helped.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
12-24-2018 , 11:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry
What strike and expiry do you have?
It’s a $134 put that I bought on the 19th when FB was at about $136. It expires on Friday.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
12-24-2018 , 12:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CandyKreep
It expires on Friday.
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12-24-2018 , 02:14 PM
Plunge protection team and space force will save the day...

Spoiler:
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12-26-2018 , 12:17 AM
Trump urged American to buy the dip today. think it might actually work too.

Only thing is he can only play that card once. So he's gotta hope it works.
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12-26-2018 , 12:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
Trump urged American to buy the dip today. think it might actually work too.

Only thing is he can only play that card once. So he's gotta hope it works.
Link? I apparently don't know how to Google
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12-26-2018 , 01:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete
Link? I apparently don't know how to Google
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n?srnd=premium

These antics seem to have zero positive effect on the market at the moment and honestly probably have the reverse effect as it only compounds people’s fears. Worst way to calm people down is to tell them not to worry.

The issues causing uncertainty aren’t really that serious to the market unless they escalate significantly but they seem to just linger forever with no resolutions.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
12-26-2018 , 02:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smoothcriminal99
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n?srnd=premium

These antics seem to have zero positive effect on the market at the moment and honestly probably have the reverse effect as it only compounds people’s fears. Worst way to calm people down is to tell them not to worry.

The issues causing uncertainty aren’t really that serious to the market unless they escalate significantly but they seem to just linger forever with no resolutions.


Yeah, and his word has literally zero credibility, even with his supporters.

If they would just keep their mouths shut..

Also, I think taking credit for the stock market surge after he became president, is now backfiring on him. Par for the course. Almost every tactic he employs backfires on him once he steps out of the carnival barker - con man lane.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
2018 Trading Thread Quote
12-26-2018 , 03:09 AM
A lot of talk and no action from the administration. Obviously he can't do much about Powell, but he should join China in lowering tariffs, even if temporary, e.g. 3-6 months. Also, dropping the border wall and allowing the government to reopen wouldn't hurt.

Anyway, hopefully a new year and a strong NFP figure next week brings back confidence in the market, assuming we don't rally before then.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
12-26-2018 , 10:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by smoothcriminal99
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n?srnd=premium

These antics seem to have zero positive effect on the market at the moment and honestly probably have the reverse effect as it only compounds people’s fears. Worst way to calm people down is to tell them not to worry.

The issues causing uncertainty aren’t really that serious to the market unless they escalate significantly but they seem to just linger forever with no resolutions.
I'm seeing gap open up, but I don't think it'll be enough to get people to buy. Guess we're about to find out.
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12-26-2018 , 01:52 PM
Who knew that all we needed was a call to buy from Trump
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12-26-2018 , 01:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
Who knew that all we needed was a call to buy from Trump
Yeah so the market was selling off on everything Trump related for the past month but now that's the catalyst for a relief rally? Don't buy that, market was stupidly oversold. If anything the past few months have shown his tricks aren't working anymore sending out his team to try to calm things down he's personally making more volatile.
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12-26-2018 , 02:00 PM
was being tongue in cheek ASAP

The dude is a moron and binked one, but unquestionably he's patting himself on the back today.
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12-26-2018 , 02:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
was being tongue in cheek ASAP

The dude is a moron and binked one, but unquestionably he's patting himself on the back today.
My bad, it's hard to tell sometimes but the smiley face should've been the giveaway. My point is simply that strategy WAS working especially earlier on his presidency and now it's having the opposite/no effect. He's staked a lot of his legacy on the markets, finding out you can't save it by tweet or pump on FOX/CNBC has to be a bit alarming. Presidents don't do themselves favors by doing this, logical to assume that while they can move the market short term they don't want to be tied to it in the event a cycle does end.
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12-26-2018 , 03:30 PM
Anyone else like GOOGL here or is it a value trap? Both for a trade and longer term into 2019. Pretty low beta, has been holding up well on a relative basis, compelling valuation. Risks are regulation and a serious global recession but comparing this to the other FAANG stocks I think this is the one you buy (especially if it gets in the $800-$900 range). My one problem is it's been cheap on a relative basis for a while now hence the value trap question, will "other bets" (Waymo, Nest, DeepMind etc) ever lessen the burden of clicks through search? The internet is changing as a form factor, its no longer just through a computer screen/internet browser and can they maintain their pricing power as that continues? Clearly some of the smartest people on the world working there, the war over data is a real thing but they can afford whatever regulation DC decides to go with.
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