Thanks. Got in SPXL 3 x SPY around the open. Swinging it.

nice push on volume today on MVO

Amazing call

I don't have the roll to trade the ES mini. Was thinking to get my feet wet via CFDs. Any glaring problem that I'm missing with this?

Sorry, I know nothing about CFDs. Maybe somebody else here knows about them.

If you can't trade minis, then you don't have the bankroll necessary to trade. Trade SPY until you do.

There are several popular methods of gaining a sufficient bankroll: 1) Save money from working 2) Play the Wheel of Fortune game at local casinos until you win a jackpot 3) Trade SPY until you have proven over several years that you are so good at the tradings that you need all of the leverages to maximize your Kelly ratio.

If you can't win trading SPY over several years, then you aren't skilled enough yet to even think about the merest possibility of trading minis.

In the interests of educating you, no, it wasn't an amazing call. It was pure luck and probably a bad call. The market was selling down quite a bit until a perfect and surprising jobs number came in at 8:30am which showed both payrolls substantially beating expectations AND unemployment going up 0.2% (mostly long term unemployed) which meant that people were coming off the bench after giving up looking for work ages ago. This strongly implied the following, which was wonderful for the market:

- The economy has more room to grow than people thought
- Businesses might not run into the low-unemployment problem of not finding people to hire/rising wages
- Inflation is less likely to be under pressure higher, making rate rises less likely

In combination this is all great news for stocks, increases upside while quelling fears.

The odds that you will lose money at trading and waste your time are >95%. This is the probability without knowing anything about you. The fact that you want to start trading eMinis means you don't intuitively understand the first thing about edge, which put the odds of failure even higher.

You're welcome!

FWIW this is a spot on analysis. You never know for sure all the reasons that markets trade the way they do on any particular day but I think TS nailed it here.

I don't know about this but certainly caution is required.

For the latter, I'm just going on data from big brokers. The rate at which people lose at trading is incredible. Long term index beaters are <3% of active accounts and amount of trading is correlated with amount of under performance (i.e. the more you trade the more you lose). The odds that this is going to worth OP's time starting with a large bankroll is <5%. The odds that it'll be worth his time vs other pursuits starting with a tiny bankroll is <1% imo.

And if you can't intuitively sense alpha (i.e. want to trade eminis vs the much larger edge in individual stocks), the odds they're gonna do well is even smaller.

Not available for USA residents is my understanding.

Ignore the noise from TS, jupiter and you do you. Personally I thought it was a great setup which is why I was in SPX & FB calls. Worked out alright .

Toothsayer, is the reason 95% lose because of commission? If commission was 0, what % would lose then? Surely it would be no more than 50% right?

Also whats a large br in your opinion?

It has never been this good to be a retail trader with all due respect to a lot of opinions otherwise. Commissions and fees are as low as they've ever been/access to information through brokerages and various other financial services, if you know what you are doing and understand the risks there is money to be made. Trade on robinhood for the guys who are new and want to give it a go.

Using news as the only tool in ones toolkit is tricky. Take all the economic news in 2009. All the news was bad for YEARS yet the market rallied in the face of it for years. All that mattered during those times was QE and the FED's commitment to ramp markets. Bernanke even publicly said one of QE's goals was to ramp equities. Indices are tricky to trade on news bc of all the other factors involved obviously. Correlation isn't causation most of the time. Sometimes it is sometimes it isnt.

News. You never know. With a lot of stocks sometimes especially biotech the trade is buy the hype sell the news. The way to play news alone if you had to is watch the market reaction to news.

I must be missing something on Camping World (CWH). It's beaten down. Trailing PE 9. Forward PE like 8. The CEO is Marcus Lemonis from The Profit who seems like a competent guy to say the least. Looks like a very attractive valuation especially in todays market. Looks like it bottomed out.

Thanks for the comments guys. Just saw the micro trading thread and that's where I belong as I'm just looking to play the CFD's for a couple of bucks a point. Also from reading a little bit of the micro thread it seems that according to TS, FX is also a big waste of time because very few if any can beat the rake?

Online trading rigged I guess

Actually yes. I always heard that FX brokers, the sites that just do FX are just modern day bucket shops. They see your orders and trade against you. I tried one of those a long time ago and they give you the worst platform and data feed. I would pay for your own data feed atleast if you ever trade currencies. Your odds of success are the lowest trading currencies imo. They make everything else a sandbox.

The problem is you need to place your orders based on their feed. Apparently the"good" brokers have cleaned up their act a lot but the people/institutions showing profit are probably getting fantastic commissions/spreads that retail traders will never see.

CFD's are fine if you want to donk around a bit. But grinding fx for realz is only for the few people out there that enjoy doing a few thousand hours of disciplined/unbiased backtesting, and even then you are looking at 2-3%/month if you are wildly successful. If that is your thing then have at it.

I wouldn't worry about the larger brokers cheating you. They do take the other side of your trade, but who cares. They would be stupid not to, and its not much different than a casino taking the other side of your blackjack bet. Not sure about the data feed issue, obviously a potentially big problem.

This is worth a watch if you haven't seen it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7G0OfJUON8&t

All out +3.8%

nice work. Congrats

Undertaker=Trump. Mankind=S&P500

Sometimes I wonder if Trump hyped up the stock results all throughout 2017 to pump it up so that he could enter into trade wars and crash the stock market, while still ending up with an overall stock market gain since his tenure began.

Crash the market? Not sure what you are talking about morish lol. I mean you've had domestic stocks/small caps (hit another ATH this morning before reversing) dramatically outpeform during this "trade war." Seems like the exact opposite is happening (look at US-China market difference) don't think the action tonight after four straight days of gains really matters too much at all.