RIOT is just tough since the borrow is so high and skewing the options. You're still effectively paying the borrow fee with the options

Some absolutely beautiful SEC filings from our friends at RIOT after today's close.

Where do we start? Well, they fired their auditor after less than a year:

https://ir.riotblockchain.com/all-se...-18-000008.pdf

They hired a new auditor today (allegedly) and simultaneously released audited financials (audited by the new auditor who was hired today, WTF?) for their acquisition of Kairos:

https://ir.riotblockchain.com/all-se...-18-000009.pdf

Obviously a great acquisition because in exchange for 1.75M convertible preferred shares of RIOT, they got $2M of mining equipment and $1M in cash. (Anyways it was great for the shareholders of Kairos, which did I mention was formed a month before it was acquired? And did I mention that "certain of the shareholders of Kairos" get 40% of the profits from this mining equipment until they get $1M. Ah, to be a "certain Kairos shareholder.")

I mention this here because at the time at the time the acquisition was announced, Jason Les, a professional poker player, joined the board. (Did I mention that their board is three marketing guys and a poker player?) I can't find anything linking him to Kairos, but Kairos was based in Vegas and Jason apparently was involved in crypto currency mining. Anyone know Jason or anything about the Kairos owners? (Check out Jason's Instagram to see him living large.)

But that's not all folks, they also filed an S-3:

https://ir.riotblockchain.com/all-se...-18-000010.pdf

Yes, that's right, they're selling more shares. What a deal. You can get in on the ground floor of this exciting blockchain opportunity.

Got into some EXAS JAN 19 60 calls on the dip on Tuesday. They should be giving prelim q4 numbers Monday morning, which if good, should send it much much higher.

Making the decision to let winners things run helps to eliminate costly behavioral bias that we all have: booking wins feels wonderful.

I'll give a great example: I felt great after selling AMZN for a 20% gain.

At the bolded: if you can be on at the open, you can just set a stop for the day. Depending on your broker, it can be a trailing stop. Or, just be me and stare at your screen all day every day.

When Andrew Left was talking about it a couple of weeks ago he said he used selling deep in the money calls to short as a better option than buying puts or the high borrow fee.

I was under the impression that there'd be no math.

Yeah I'm short a few calls on RIOT, but you're still paying the borrow. If you bought $25 calls and sold $25 puts even for Jan, you'd be synthetically long the stock at $23.55. That's a 3.6% discount to where it closed for just 10 days of trading. Out to June gives you a 20% discount

This post is probably a mistake and I am not trying to start a flame war but I would like to discuss the concept of "edge". I really hope this can be a civil conversation without name calling and typical douchebag behavior. I really like to discuss trading with an open mind.

Edge depends on lots of factors. Edge to a very short term momentum trader means something different than edge to a longer term fundamental trader. Back in the pits edge was simple if you bought on the bid and sold on the offer you got the edge. But only the computers play that game now.

I know exactly what my edge is as I have mathematically calculated it. Certain things happen and when they do I make a trade. Since I have done this for a long time and have kept good records I know the odds of what will happen next and if the odds are right I make the bet. For you poker players think of it as a flush draw when the pot odds are in your favor. It doesn't always fill your flush but its a bet you have make every time.

For someone who talks a lot about their ability to create alpha and trade with a huge edge I don't understand how selling short things that go 15-20% against you are creating alpha or in any way have an edge? Doesn't sound like much edge to me. But like I said I don't play that game.

I am open minded though. I realize that I have a very specific trading style and approach but realize there are many different ways to approach trading and the markets. Just because someone doesn't trade exactly the way I do doesn't mean they are a clown or an idiot or beneath me. There are infinite ways to approach trading with unlimited options of what to trade and what timeframe to trade. I love to discuss both my ideas and the ideas of others so we can all share and learn. I never dismiss them out of hand because the best way to trade is tailor made to each individuals psychology.

We shouldn't be attacking and trying to tear down each other but rather trying to have constructive insult free open discussion. There isn't anyone here who knows it all or couldn't learn a thing or two from others.

honestly everyone here is gonna come off as a busto tout unless they share their receipts/results, and not many here have incentive to do that

in that vein, i agree with mrbaseball that the format is better when discussion is more constructive

people who flame others should post hu4rolls challenges or be banned imo

"We shouldn't be attacking and trying to tear down each other but rather trying to have constructive insult free open discussion. There isn't anyone here who knows it all or couldn't learn a thing or two from others."

sticky that. here here

Ask and ye shall receive!

#s just out. Looking good.

http://investor.exactsciences.com/in...7/default.aspx

I have watching the Bitcoin futures since they came out but haven't as of yet pulled the trigger. The volume in both contracts (CBOE and CME) are both abysmal. But I did plug a simple 5 minute bar channel breakout system on the CBOE (small) contract to see what it looked like.

First off I set an arbitrary daily trading timeframe of 7am to 1pm cst since if I ever do trade this that is when I am sitting in front of my trading computers. Then I added in full fees and 4 ticks of slippage per round turn. 4 ticks is pretty steep slippage but may even be optimistic since these contracts are so thin. Need to really trade it live for a while to see if it is too high or too low.

I started tracking this on 12/11. That is 18 trading days which generated 46 trading signals.

The per contract breakdown was:

$2750 profit
20 winning trades
26 losing trades
about 43% winning trades
$60 profit per contract per trade
11 winning days (avg +$395)
7 losing days (avg -$229)

So this extremely small sample would have provided 61% winning days that pay off at about 1.72:1 which isn't a bad coin flip.

But it is far too thin to attempt as of yet. Also it would need some fine tuning as far as timeframe tick size and type (time, range, tick?) as well as channel lengths. Need to really trade it live a little to get a real feel for it. This testing was just a very simplistic system to see what happened. I have an inkling that the volatility in this market would probably be best served with range bars rather than time bars.

If volume ever picks up I may give this a shot.

Stopped out of JO, took 7% loss. No when to get out of my own way now.

Added THCX on the "dilution". Another case of better lucky than good. Sold higher than this, got gifted the re-entry and took it. Dilution in quotes because I don't know how you really sweat a dilution in a parabolic growth segment. All these market caps are fictional. They get 100m dollars now to expand that second warehouse, in a few minutes the "dilution" will be forgotten. I had to change that sentence because I had written "week". lol it's almost all bought up.

Also let us remember I'm the one who sold WEED at $7 or whatever up several hundred percent. $38 today...

day's range for GPRO is bananas. What's everyone doing there?

Gonna try doing RIOT and TSLA bear call spreads throughout the year. Hopefully it is not a stupid idea.

Taking HOS for another spin...

^ slump buster or an old flame?

I've been wondering how much longer a speculative bubble in cryptocurrencies can go on. (My hunch is: a long time.) I did a little digging to find examples of scammy stocks from the .com era. Here's an article dated July 7, 1998 about Zapata, a "marine protein and food packaging business" whose stock doubled when it announced that it intended to spin off a new Internet business called Zap.com:

http://www.nytimes.com/1998/07/07/bu...ny-splits.html

Company founded by George Bush (yes, Bush 41, and, no, you can't make this **** up):

https://www.bizjournals.com/houston/...26/story2.html

The chart for HRG (Zapata, renamed) in the year 1998 was interesting as someone who's short RIOT:



Anyways, the point is that it took almost two years from the time of that first article for the .com bubble to burst (although the shine came off Zapata stock pretty quickly).

Here's Michael Burry writing in 2006 about his 2005 purchase of subprime CDSs that he expected to experience "maximum stress" in the second half of 2007:

http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/up...er_and_FAQ.pdf

Anyways, it was interesting to me that in both cases the time period was two years.

Bought 1/19 RIOT $25 puts at $2.45.

Subscribing for 2018. Letting winners run is top of mind for me right now - need to decide when to take TWMJF (~$15 cb) and AIRT (~$16 cb) off.

Forgot to subscribe...

Having some fun trades this month. CROX (14%) early this week. Swing trading these at the moment:

BOIL
FNMA

Getting prepped for earnings season again. What are you guys interested in targeting? NVDA and SHOP have had some nice swings to the upside on positive conference calls. I am considering shorting AAPL into earnings. Will be fun for certain.

Getting pretty close to where I back the truck up for TGIF.

Waiting a bit more for the same on THC


What are you guys using for a reliable notification app on your phones for price levels? I want something reliable to notify me. Ok paying $10 or whatever one time. More if it's really legit.

I know we've asked that question before, just curious if anything new is out

Bought 1/19 KODK $5 puts at $1.40.

Got ripped to shreds on this obv. Very angry at myself for making this trade, I didn't think it through as I made the trade in haste before running off to a meeting. Extremely poor risk reward: risking $1.40 to pick up $0.50 profit (best case scenario) in a very tight timeframe with huge volatility. Just an absolutely dumpster fire of a trade.