left wing Fox News

I suppose I should step in and say some things.

Even if we initiate tariffs, it wouldn't incur a trade war, simply because Trump (moreso Wilbur Ross) is right. We have completely garbage trade deals that stem from WWII and the Cold War, simply because we were trying to help rebuild the rest of the world, or curry favor with countries to stay away from the Soviet bloc. Now, those same countries are rich and the Soviets don't exist anymore, so these lopsided trade deals are simply idiotic.

Wilbur Ross gave many examples of such at the Davos forum:
http://fortune.com/2018/01/24/davos-...de-war-tariff/

I highly recommend listening to the whole Davos meeting if you can find it.


The problem is China is using other countries that have free trade agreements with the U.S. to indirectly dump government subsidized steel and aluminum into the U.S. in a manner that is impossible to compete with. NAFTA is one of the bigger vehicles for this; Canada doesn't really produce all that much steel, but rather imports a ton from China then dumps the steel and steel related products into the U.S. via NAFTA. Listen to literally any conference call from any U.S. truck parts or materials manufacturer (Accuride, AK Steel, etc.) and they will tell you the same thing.

This is not even really a disputed fact; you can find dozens of examples. Here's a recent one:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese...ert-1473356054

So these steel and aluminum tariffs were long in coming; only Trump had the gall to actually go through with the tariffs.

Man there is so much misinformation here. Canada isn't dumping chinese steel and that's a myth which still somehow makes the rounds here. This isn't the first time this argument has been brought up.

I mean this information is public and easy to look up.

Canadian steel imports: https://www.trade.gov/steel/countrie...rts-Canada.pdf
US steel imports: https://www.trade.gov/steel/countrie...imports-us.pdf

Canada gets a measly 9% of its steel from China, 59% however from the US. Canada isn't pulling any fancy tricks here this isn't the 70s

The tariffs don't really make sense and isn't a good bargaining chip for NAFTA either.

The tariffs don’t make sense on any level.

I meant to say Mexico per my link and my reference to U.S. trucking. I was staring at my Canada short at the same time I was typing and it was before morning coffee.

Other examples are through Chinese re-exports through Vietnam and Thailand, per the commerce report:

https://www.commerce.gov/sites/comme...-_20180111.pdf

As Wilbur Ross mentioned, the global tariff is recommended because it is impossible to stamp all of the disguised steel, though there is discussion for a specific exemption for Canada.

I disagree with this. The US has not been struggling because of the actions of China. The US has been struggling because of the actions of the US.

The post 90s economic picture in the US is characterized by a cyclical balance sheet recession (not an income statement recession). A balance sheet recession takes much longer to work off.

To be clear, I am referring to the balance sheets of individual citizens. Basically private debt was too high (marked poignantly by sub-prime). Since then we have seen a rather rapid decline of the middle class in the US. The middle class is the engine of growth.

Current policy favors those with established capital and preserves wealth while it hinders those without it.

When you combine this with costly efforts to save the petro dollar, much of American capital has been wasted on frivolous consumption (the citizen's credit card) and destructive foreign policy (the government's credit card).

Sound money, interest rates, tax policy, etc., would have prevented this largesse in the first place (think Vietnam).

The only answer is a return sound practices on both the individual and national level.

That's fair. It just hurts to watch Canada getting crushed for no reason other then being a good ally.

Well, Trump took a lot of the fear off a North America free trade war at 3pm with the White House saying that it may exempt Canada and Mexico from tariffs. Market loved it, and we just hit green.

What a ****ing cuck. I thought Canada and Mexico were abusing the USA and things needed to change?

lol some firm needs to create a CUCK etf

80% FB?

Why would you think this hasn't been priced in already? FFS it's not 1999 anymore.

Why would you even post in here if you believe the markets are efficient?

Lots of terrible posters in this thread today

If you think things are just 'priced in' what do think about the borrow rate? Should just be able to go long roku, lend it out, and print free money.

Of course tooth's pick isn't exactly a bold prediction, unless he's claiming its a short even after fees.

It is odd when something widely known and easily gamed (lock up periods ending) doesn't get priced in. I mean it isn't like the research on what tends to happen at the end of lock up periods is hard to find.

I don't think it's odd at all. There simply isn't enough data on IPO lockups to come up with some kind of universal formula incorporating % of shares locked up, short interest, borrow rates, time to end of lockup period, % of shares held by dumb money, general market conditions, hype for the stock and whether or not it's cheap or richly valued, and a billion other factors. And every new data point changes the game anyway.

Adding 16% of the shares to the float is a significant catalyst and if you're convinced the stock is too expensive anyway there's a good chance there's a decent play on the short side, whether it's through shorting or options. The idea that you can just safely ignore it because the smartest guy is always willing to bet enough money to maintain the price at a level where no profits can be made is pretty silly.

Well first you'd have to buy $14 (rather $15) puts expiring in 1 year, then hope the borrowing fee stays there and that you're broker chooses your shares to lend.

People are trying to make a living out here. If we know the fair price, why would we trade at the fair price?

Because there's so many of you who know the fair price, if you don't grab those profits every time it deviates by a penny, someone else will!

Very Western-centric statement. Stalin (the leader of the Soviet Union!) is estimated to kill a lot more.

As an aside, what's a 1000 years in the context of **** sapien history? We've had people like Genghis Khan wiping 5% of the world population, diseases like the Black Death, which wiped out 50% of Europe, and almost a nuclear World War III (Cold War) just a few decades ago. I'm glad we've made it as a species.

You're missing the point entirely

Just hold the deltas, and you'd be receiving free edge over the risk premium

I'm obviously not serious, just pointing out how silly that post was.

So just returning to this - I know a lot of you are basically the left wing version of fox news rednecks, incapable of understanding the world, but I think many also (also uncoincidentally) are fans of Musk. Here is what he had to say today.







This is how trillions of dollars in wealth is pouring out of the US - a global system that's strongly protectionist and anti free trade, while the US bends over and hands their hard-earned cash and know how to other countries for no good reason at all. Trump merely wants to even it up somewhat. Obama sat on his hands and did nothing while trillions bled out of the US and structural disadvantages from this massive anti-free-trade cheating grew, making the US poorer and stagnating wages and requiring ballooning debt to cover it.

If you're against Trump on this, you're deranged. This is what he's taking on and this is why it's not just some tokenism to appeal to his base, - we have a real trade war coming (that needs to happen) that's based on sound principles. The truth is that the US is already in a massive one sided trade war that it's losing badly at tremendous cost. The US is historically wealthy, and this massive loss of wealth has been papered over enough by debt and low rates that people aren't really aware what's going on.

Not gonna say any more on the matter, but can you imagine how ****ed in the head you have to be to think that actual non-controversial facts are a conspiracy theory like bigt2k4 says?

TS I think the above is good stuff and appreciate your post. Thanks.

TS: Your posts are dishonest, lazy, and trollish. That might have something to do with why any of your valid points are not universally well received (you seem to manufacture a significant EAD factor for yourself).

bigt2k4 did not call you a conspiracy theorist over actual non-controversial facts and I'm going to assume you know that.

Trump doesn't even know the details of what he wants or is going to do. Calling those 'against him on this' deranged is lazy since it expects others to do work disputing it. At the very least, being against how he has thus far gone about announcing tarrifs is a defensible position. Perhaps not communicating with his team about his intentions to announce them is 3d chess (ya, right), but it's far from deranged to suspect he is just winging it on something so important.


"incapable of understanding the world"
"you're deranged"
"****ed in the head"

EAD