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Old 02-22-2018, 09:25 PM   #576
BrianTheMick2
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkypete View Post
Yeah, that's exactly what I said in the previous post.
Occasionally, when I quote a post I'm not disagreeing with it.

Weird, right?

Further helpful advice: Yelling at VIX futures seems to make them go down.
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Old 02-22-2018, 09:31 PM   #577
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2 View Post
Further helpful advice: Yelling at VIX futures seems to make them go down.
I bet if you yelled at 20 different futures contracts you could statistically prove that it works on at least one of them with 95% confidence.

Last edited by stinkypete; 02-22-2018 at 09:32 PM. Reason: If you're also willing to go long you can double the amount of trades you get out of it
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Old 02-22-2018, 10:00 PM   #578
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

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I bet if you yelled at 20 different futures contracts you could statistically prove that it works on at least one of them with 95% confidence.
I have this old friend by the name of Bonferroni
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Old 02-22-2018, 10:06 PM   #579
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2 View Post
I have this old friend by the name of Bonferroni
Someone should have told him that we don't use statistics to be right, but rather to get scientific papers published.
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Old 02-23-2018, 10:35 AM   #580
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2 View Post
Further helpful advice: Yelling at VIX futures seems to make them go down.
I think this was a secret protected by the Illuminati
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Old 02-23-2018, 11:55 AM   #581
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2 View Post
Occasionally, when I quote a post I'm not disagreeing with it.

Weird, right?

Further helpful advice: Yelling at VIX futures seems to make them go down.
interesting to see big up moves evaporate two days in a row. i hope your short vol trade works out... until tuesday, then blows up
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Old 02-23-2018, 12:59 PM   #582
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

I'm exiting my AKS trade for a 10%, since I want some room for my TSLA short and one other short that I'm going big on.
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Old 02-23-2018, 03:26 PM   #583
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

You shorting TSLA with options?
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Old 02-23-2018, 06:38 PM   #584
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

Nope, I'm naked short shares at $340
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Old 02-24-2018, 02:14 AM   #585
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

My Planet Fitness PLNT beat on the quarter and are bumping up guidance. They are gonna buy back more stock. The franchise model continues to work well. Same store sales doing really well as always.
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Old 02-25-2018, 12:06 PM   #586
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

I've always traded in a prop account so I've never thought about taxes in a retail account. So what are the tax consequences of owning mutual funds vs etfs? Say I wanted to own preferreds, how is PFF going to be treated differently than CPXIX? I think that etfs with div reinvestment won't be taxed until you sell, while a mutual fund passes through all the taxes to the holders. Correct me if I'm wrong.

It's interesting regarding preferreds because the etf follows an index that uses pretty dumb logic that gets very manipulated and can be easily beaten by active management, before taxes at least.
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Old 02-25-2018, 07:57 PM   #587
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

There are some weird things that can happen with mutual funds and taxes due to outflow. I think this was particularly noticeable with some active funds last year when people got unexpectedly hammered by large tax bills.
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Old 02-26-2018, 01:33 AM   #588
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

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interesting to see big up moves evaporate two days in a row. i hope your short vol trade works out... until tuesday, then blows up
That happens to me a fairly large percentage of the time. Not on Tuesdays, specifically.
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Old 02-26-2018, 01:16 PM   #589
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

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Given how much NFLX & AMZN ran into (& after in NFLX case) their prints, the relative strength today is even more impressive. Good luck calling the top in these names.
Nice move back to ATHs, continued relative strength during the comeback.
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Old 02-27-2018, 01:12 AM   #590
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

VMIN/VMAX changing to 2 to 6 month vix futures. That is kind of smart, but a complete change in their strategy which was to be short/long the weeklies. I can easily support this change since the new product will be kind of useful.

Proshares changing SVXY to -0.5 short and UVXY to +1.5 long. These are changes that are stupid as a ... Well, I can't think of something so stupid.
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Old 02-27-2018, 01:23 AM   #591
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2 View Post
Proshares changing SVXY to -0.5 short and UVXY to +1.5 long. These are changes that are stupid as a ... Well, I can't think of something so stupid.
good way to make sure people lose all interest in them
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Old 02-27-2018, 06:20 AM   #592
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

You might actually have to man up and start selling puts, Brian. Cut out the middle man.
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Old 02-27-2018, 01:13 PM   #593
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

First day trade in over a week and it's my biggest win ever doing it. Tooth I owe you for getting me to change there.

In TGIF .42 and out .475

big big position too, steak tonight
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Old 02-27-2018, 02:39 PM   #594
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

Bravo
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Old 02-27-2018, 02:56 PM   #595
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

TGIF @ .57 - I don't day trade, but I was going to buy some this morning when I arrived at the office only to be inundated with work and not getting a chance to log in only to find out the price had moved huge.
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Old 02-27-2018, 03:45 PM   #596
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

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TGIF @ .57 - I don't day trade, but I was going to buy some this morning when I arrived at the office only to be inundated with work and not getting a chance to log in only to find out the price had moved huge.
When I closed the trade it was because

1) I was going to leave my desk

2) I can't put stop loses on .cn holdings, which is frustrating

Told myself full well that there was a better than good chance I'd come home to find I left a lot on the table. If you had asked me 2 weeks ago how I'd feel about making 10% when I could have made 25%-30%, I'd have said "furious". Today's the first time I'm really not mad.

I've finally come around to not chastising myself over this kind of stuff, specially when #1 and #2 are true. I can't leave positions that big unsupervised in something so volatile.

53 cents now, curious to see where it closes. I really hate that no stop loss rule. For sure I let winners run more when I'm allowed that.

Last edited by rafiki; 02-27-2018 at 03:57 PM.
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Old 02-27-2018, 04:04 PM   #597
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

I don't understand how DDS is only up 15% when 70% of the float was short.
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Old 02-27-2018, 04:13 PM   #598
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

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I don't understand how DDS is only up 15% when 70% of the float was short.
I can't believe I sold DDS yesterday to get some cash to average down weed stocks.
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Old 02-27-2018, 04:41 PM   #599
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

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Twitter decent medium term short at $33 (I liked it long at $19 a few months ago) with Jack throwing cold water on an acquisition and talking about Twitter's structural advertising issues at a conference. Profit taking fairly likely.

Chipolte decent medium term long at $281 with the Taco Bell CEO brought in to help turn it around. Personally I think the company is trash, but it's been priced a lot higher even recently and the new big-deal CEO should be a nice upside catalyst.
Twitter is pissing me off, may as well take 5% profit here at $31.30 if anyone followed. It's underperformed the market badly but not as much as hoped.

Hit the holy grail of Sharpe here:



Got to be looking for these kind of pair trades imo in this new market where whipsawing is common and you can't have a lot of certainty.
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Old 02-27-2018, 05:08 PM   #600
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Re: 2018 Trading Thread

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I can't believe I sold DDS yesterday to get some cash to average down weed stocks.
Should've waited at least to earnings. What was the point in holding DDS if you weren't waiting at least for the short squeeze to come from the holiday sales results?
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