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2018 Trading Thread 2018 Trading Thread

10-12-2018 , 02:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry
Possible acquisition if you want to gamble. I don't see the appeal but bad acquisitions are common, especially late in the cycle when companies are struggling to maintain growth.
As someone in their mid 30's I can only offer anecdotal evidence that young people, 25 and under, still use SNAP a lot. Stories may have migrated somewhat to Instagram but every younger girl I meet is on Snapchat constantly.

They still haven't totally cracked monetisation but it may be undervalued down here.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-12-2018 , 11:59 AM
Any advice on when to exit these positions?

SDOW Mar 15 2019 14 Call
SDOW Mar 15 2019 20 Call

I got in about two weeks ago but they haven't moved as I thought (which is simply due to my inexperience).
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-12-2018 , 11:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElSapo
Any advice on when to exit these positions?

SDOW Mar 15 2019 14 Call
SDOW Mar 15 2019 20 Call

I got in about two weeks ago but they haven't moved as I thought (which is simply due to my inexperience).
Before you bought them would be a great time to exit. Unless they are going to go up a ton, in which case you should hold them until they go up. If that is the case, then make sure to hold them only until right before they are about to go down again, but not if they are going to go up even more after they go down some.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-13-2018 , 12:00 AM
SNAP is still VERY widely used
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-15-2018 , 11:56 AM
Im in BLRX it's moving today. In MJ APHQF too.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-15-2018 , 12:32 PM
CGC too. Near highs
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-15-2018 , 02:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElSapo
Any advice on when to exit these positions?

SDOW Mar 15 2019 14 Call
SDOW Mar 15 2019 20 Call

I got in about two weeks ago but they haven't moved as I thought (which is simply due to my inexperience).
Its probably liquid enough, IDK I havent looked at it. But if you want to short the dow and can trade options, puts on DIA are probably a better market to trade.

Also, the further out you go (in time) the less the price of your option will be based on the price movement of the underlying.

While I don't remember the details of the trade, I will never forget getting the move in the underlying right but losing money on the trade bc of vol crush.

What was your plan when buying a March 2019 expiration?

Another thing to keep in mind, to get (what I imagine you consider) significant exposure, you have to do a lot of contracts on such a cheap underlying. Options are, IMO, better on assets price at least $50+ --> less transactions costs.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-15-2018 , 02:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rand
Also, the further out you go (in time) the less the price of your option will be based on the price movement of the underlying.
This is also sort of true the closer you are to expiration. At least if the underlying trades sideways. Theta falls off an exponential cliff. There is sort of a sweet spot for theta.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-15-2018 , 02:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rand
This is also sort of true the closer you are to expiration. At least if the underlying trades sideways. Theta falls off an exponential cliff. There is sort of a sweet spot for theta.
Hint: the value of those options consisted of a lot of premium. So since they are so far out, and since delta represents a proportionally smaller portion of the value of the option...this probably explains the discrepancy between how the market has moved and how your options have moved.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-15-2018 , 04:33 PM
cbwtf breaking out if you want another cannabis trade to target.
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10-18-2018 , 11:13 AM
YECO went zombie. Looks ready to fade
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10-21-2018 , 08:16 PM
aaxn going to be worth a look at the open based on the issues from today.
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10-23-2018 , 02:33 PM
Anyone follow shop, and is it worth a look going into earnings?
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-23-2018 , 09:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
Anyone follow shop, and is it worth a look going into earnings?
I have a small but permanent short position on SHOP.
Not much of a thesis other than it will drop >50% in a risk-off bear market or market correction, and overpriced Canada-based stocks tend to be the nut low in such markets.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-24-2018 , 04:27 PM
blooooood in the streets whew
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10-24-2018 , 04:43 PM
AMD annihilated. Annihilated. Glad I'm still holding SQQQ

Last edited by Jupiter0; 10-24-2018 at 04:49 PM.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-24-2018 , 05:31 PM
man i love watching these markets.
people are losing their mind even though we're basically just flat for the year.
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10-24-2018 , 06:09 PM
Are people really losing their minds? Not many people mentioned it to me. I don't trade but just going by sentiment that I've heard so far.

I just think the market is up so much last decade that it is going to take 15-20% downturn for any type of fearful psychology to set in. Whereas in past downturns that number may have been a little lower.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-24-2018 , 06:25 PM
i would say theres no real fear yet. blood, yes, but not fear. there's still plenty of liquidity going around. but it doesn't take much for these kind of things to completely break down.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-24-2018 , 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
Are people really losing their minds? Not many people mentioned it to me. I don't trade but just going by sentiment that I've heard so far.

I just think the market is up so much last decade that it is going to take 15-20% downturn for any type of fearful psychology to set in. Whereas in past downturns that number may have been a little lower.
i actually think this psychology might work in the other direction. people haven't seen these kind of days in close succession for 10 years.

maybe it's just my filter-bubble. guy i know at wealth management of a smaller bank told me he's having the most stressful time in his job (started maybe 5 years ago).
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-24-2018 , 07:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BooLoo
i actually think this psychology might work in the other direction. people haven't seen these kind of days in close succession for 10 years.

maybe it's just my filter-bubble. guy i know at wealth management of a smaller bank told me he's having the most stressful time in his job (started maybe 5 years ago).
Huh? We've had tons of weeks like this over the last 10 years.

Probably like 7-8 5-10% downturns....2011 being the most severe, then late 2014, 2015 in August, 2015 in October, 2016 w/ brexit, early Feb this yr, right now

probably missed a few too
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-25-2018 , 03:27 AM
i get that.
and 'this time it's different' is probably the most overused sentence in finance,
but with rates rising this just feels different.
maybe it's not this time, maybe we are back at ATH in 2 weeks but barring a fed policy change we will be in a different environment going forward.
people have gotten very rich and treasuries suddenly look very tempting.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-25-2018 , 07:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
Huh? We've had tons of weeks like this over the last 10 years.

Probably like 7-8 5-10% downturns....2011 being the most severe, then late 2014, 2015 in August, 2015 in October, 2016 w/ brexit, early Feb this yr, right now

probably missed a few too
No, there's been nothing like this except 2011 maybe. Nasdaq had the worst day in 7 years yesterday. Dips have been bought harder an faster in the past. We're over 10% off highs now and not buying the dip.

There were always reasons for the prior selloffs as well, big reasons. Now it's a wholesale shift to bonds with no one having a clue when that will end.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-25-2018 , 10:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
I have a small but permanent short position on SHOP.
Not much of a thesis other than it will drop >50% in a risk-off bear market or market correction, and overpriced Canada-based stocks tend to be the nut low in such markets.
Totally understand this logic, but man shop chart seems to defy conventional wisdom.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
10-25-2018 , 11:10 AM
SNAP is a buy here.
2018 Trading Thread Quote

      
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