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2018 Trading Thread 2018 Trading Thread

08-21-2018 , 02:41 PM
Found some the past couple days I added to my watchlist. AMRC SSKN ISNS IMMY ENDP (only largecap). Longed SSKN
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08-21-2018 , 04:13 PM
Anybody know the catalyst on NEWA 67% drop?
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08-23-2018 , 10:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by twelve yr old
I bought NFLX weekly calls this morning on the first good news since the battering after the ER. Wouldn't be surprised to see a violent snapback here.
Well that worked quite nicely. Have a monster winner working right now in EXAS as well. Digested the news yesterday and came to the conclusion that it was just about the most bullish piece of news you could find on this company. Picked up weeklies yesterday as well as some contracts for next week that are up 1000s of %. Between this trade and SODA, I've made more than I made all last year trading!
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08-23-2018 , 11:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
Anybody know the catalyst on NEWA 67% drop?
Im interested as well. I made the speculative purchase with tight SL
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08-23-2018 , 01:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by twelve yr old
NVDA has been spanking AMD for some time now and AMD #s were excellent for the most recent quarter, which should be a good read through to a good quarter from NVDA. There is definitely downside risk, but that's why we play the options not, the stock. I expect to be wrong here a good amount of the time, but the risk-reward in the September calls is there IMO. Guess we'll find out on Thursday!
You had that gap down and recovery post earnings, now flirting with an ATH. Make or break point here, just had Left on CNBC last couple days saying it's game over. AMD going nuts as well...

Quote:
Originally Posted by twelve yr old
Well that worked quite nicely. Have a monster winner working right now in EXAS as well. Digested the news yesterday and came to the conclusion that it was just about the most bullish piece of news you could find on this company. Picked up weeklies yesterday as well as some contracts for next week that are up 1000s of %. Between this trade and SODA, I've made more than I made all last year trading!
Crushing it!
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08-24-2018 , 09:40 AM
DBX lockup expiry today. Good opportunity to buy the dip...it's holding around 27.

edit: Definitely spoke too soon about holding at 27!

Last edited by calmasahinducow; 08-24-2018 at 09:54 AM.
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08-24-2018 , 03:25 PM
Jumped in SUPV for a swing trade. They got crushed during earnings and playing the bounce.
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08-27-2018 , 10:30 AM
Cannabis stocks are feeling really tsla-ish right now. When the momentum slows down, how big will the pullback be? Giving everything back or retaining some of these gains?

Beer is already less popular thanks to the empty calories, and pot soda is full of sugar and calories (fewer consumers). One bottle is enough to get a few normal people stoned for hours(fewer sales). The unpredictability of the effects on the individual consumer means the experience may not be as desirable(churn). Lots of negatives, very few positives. How do these stocks soar without blind emotional $. Seems like an easy trade. What am I missing?

Last edited by btc; 08-27-2018 at 10:57 AM.
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08-27-2018 , 11:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
Cannabis stocks are feeling really tsla-ish right now. When the momentum slows down, how big will the pullback be? Giving everything back or retaining some of these gains?

Beer is already less popular thanks to the empty calories, and pot soda is full of sugar and calories (fewer consumers). One bottle is enough to get a few normal people stoned for hours(fewer sales). The unpredictability of the effects on the individual consumer means the experience may not be as desirable(churn). Lots of negatives, very few positives. How do these stocks soar without blind emotional $. Seems like an easy trade. What am I missing?
They are obvious shorts imo, but good luck timing it. These could all double or triple even from these levels
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08-27-2018 , 11:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by twelve yr old
They are obvious shorts imo, but good luck timing it. These could all double or triple even from these levels
It seems like a lot of the recent action is off the Constellation stake in CGC. I'd be very careful on either side right now, secular trends are there but yeah some of these valuations are crazy. I've been wrong on CGC in the past, seems like instutional investors are starting to get serious in the space and that sends all kinds of warning signs in terms of getting in front of this before it starts to weaken. Overall market strength is obviously aiding this run as well.
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08-27-2018 , 01:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by btc
Lots of negatives, very few positives. How do these stocks soar without blind emotional $. Seems like an easy trade. What am I missing?
This current rally started after Constellation Brands (STZ) made a big investment in Canopy (CGC).
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08-27-2018 , 02:06 PM
The action in AMD has truly been bananas today, not sure I've ever seen so much flow in one name based on its market cap and run YTD, the last few years. Breaking that long term resistance at $15 has basically been parabolic since while names like INTC, MU are stalling out, WDC collapsing on a relative basis. Both of my brokerages still rate this as a garbage equity rating, 150m share short interest but that's actually around YTD lows as well.
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08-27-2018 , 05:54 PM
The pot stock stuff is the culmination of what I've been saying in this thread for years: prohibition is ending, the market is going to be much bigger than anyone imagined, and there's some reallllly shady stuff politically in Canada going on that points to a coming monopoly.

The latest catalyst is from Ontario electing a Trump-esque Premier to lead the province. He scrapped the idea of government-run drug outlets and will be allowing corner stores to sell pot. The pot still has to come from the licensed producers. This is going to be an avalanche of money in the largest market for the heaviest smokers in the world.

Constellation heard about it and handed CGC a giant wad of cash to become the Molson of Canada.

This has been the most obvious long term trade for me in my life but ignoring the FUD gets harder every time a new ATH is broken. With the amount I've been hyping these stocks for years now I should be rich.
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08-27-2018 , 05:57 PM
I'd look at blockchain stocks for a short term trade. The alt market has recovered slightly and I think you're going to see disproportionate responses with RIOT, HIVE, etc.
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08-28-2018 , 03:01 AM
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Both of my brokerages still rate this as a garbage equity rating, 150m share short interest but that's actually around YTD lows as well.
Are they ranking it that way because of financials?
AMD is ahead of Intel technologically in the most significant CPU market (servers, cloud providers) and are about as good for gamers (cheaper, still a bit slower on 1 core). Looking at recent Intel's PR disasters (showing off limited production overclocked CPU and not mentioning it's a fairy tale, their performance improvements from last decade vanishing due to security exploits, trying to censor other from publishing benchmarks after microde updates, firing a CEO who stated he hopes they will be able to limit AMD to take only 20% of the server market (currently at about 1%)) it's clear Intel has nothing to compete with for at least few years to come.

I am also very bullish on GPUs still. Crypto fad might be over by general GPU programming is only getting bigger. NVIDIA is the king but it's a huge market to take a bite at and AMD isn't dead there yet (for example recent announcement looks promising: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/am...340,37694.html)

On the top of that it seems they very competent CEO and designers capable of coming up with a wonder like Ryzen.

I am not selling AMD till at least 2020 or till it becomes too big % of my net worth.
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08-28-2018 , 03:15 AM
Railroads are breaking out. I think the Mexico trade deal news will give them some follow through and if GDP announcement Wedn is actually 4%. Hard to find substantive news but I read the new deal increases the auto trade w Mexico considerably for sure. Union Pacific UNP is the only railroad serving all six major Mexican gateways. That's good enough for me.

Last edited by Jupiter0; 08-28-2018 at 03:30 AM.
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08-28-2018 , 01:39 PM
Nasty fakeout UNP. Gonna cut most and move the stop a bit.
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08-28-2018 , 03:46 PM
What do you guys think about TSMC? They are working with Apple, Nvidia and AMD. It seems they be ahead of Intel technologically with 7nm coming up. The stock didn't moon like Apple/Nvidia/AMD. I think Intel's lunch will keep getting eaten by above metioned companies and they all heavily rely on TSMC.
I bought a small position a few days ago, thinking about adding more.
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08-28-2018 , 06:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
Nasty fakeout UNP. Gonna cut most and move the stop a bit.
Can you elaborate on this?

Was your previous post a short term prediction or something make you reconsider? Fwiw I've done zero dd irt shipping.
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08-28-2018 , 09:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoDeViLs
Can you elaborate on this?
I bought the breakout then the stock reversed considerably. I wasn't expecting it to do that. I thought it would hold up better. It seems to be sort of how it has acted in the past though so I am going to give it time to play out. Yes, a shorter term trade.
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08-29-2018 , 11:08 AM
Tilray $30 by Jan?
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08-29-2018 , 03:20 PM
TLRY will be $5 in January. CRON will be .50. IGC leadership will be indicted. The weed stock thing is completely reminiscent of the Bitcoin stocks during Nov-Jan. Total scam companies rebranding as weed and just getting pumped.
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08-29-2018 , 04:06 PM
... i have 0 investment in CRON at the moment but how are they a scam or a rebrand? They own a whole bunch of weed DNA and have a foothold to sell legal pot in 2 countries....
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08-29-2018 , 04:39 PM
I didn't call it a scam. That was mostly directed at IGC. CRON seems like a legitimate company that should be worth AT MOST 10% of its current market cap.
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09-04-2018 , 10:44 AM
Hey guys. Since this is 2k18 trading thread, can I ask about crypto? I'm planning to invest something in it during September-October. For me the question is which currencies is it better to choose now? I think btc will be my main investment. In addition, I’d like to get some alts but there’re really a lot of them, so I haven't made my choice yet. Maybe, I’ll choose xrp or bch as a second players. Can anybody predict if these coins are going to grow during the end of 2018. Any advice will be highly appreciated.
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