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2018 Trading Thread 2018 Trading Thread

07-10-2018 , 07:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Crash the market? Not sure what you are talking about morish lol. I mean you've had domestic stocks/small caps (hit another ATH this morning before reversing) dramatically outpeform during this "trade war." Seems like the exact opposite is happening (look at US-China market difference) don't think the action tonight after four straight days of gains really matters too much at all.
I'm not talking particularly about today; just a thought in general if a full blown trade war were to actually happen. Like if Trump's line of thought was something like "well, the stock market has gained a lot in 2017, I can afford to enter into actual trade wars now and my constituents wouldn't mind so much, but the other countries can't afford to go into trade wars."

But yeah, the Chinese stock market would probably blow up harder than the U.S. market would in response to an actual full blown trade war.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
07-10-2018 , 10:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
There was a time when wrestling was actually entertaining, and it has nothing to do with age. Wth happened?
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07-10-2018 , 10:13 PM
Development. Not sure if this will have legs, but I think it's what's moved futures off crashing lows. Two hours ago:

https://twitter.com/JeffFlake

Quote:
FINALLY, Senate will push back on the President’s abuse of Section 232 to impose tariffs. We will vote Wednesday on a “Motion to Instruct,” a first step toward reasserting Congress’s constitutional role on tariffs.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
07-10-2018 , 10:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
I'm not talking particularly about today; just a thought in general if a full blown trade war were to actually happen. Like if Trump's line of thought was something like "well, the stock market has gained a lot in 2017, I can afford to enter into actual trade wars now and my constituents wouldn't mind so much, but the other countries can't afford to go into trade wars."

But yeah, the Chinese stock market would probably blow up harder than the U.S. market would in response to an actual full blown trade war.
Sure. He might be the first POTUS who plays 10-D chess.
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07-10-2018 , 11:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Development. Not sure if this will have legs, but I think it's what's moved futures off crashing lows. Two hours ago:

https://twitter.com/JeffFlake
lol.
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07-11-2018 , 01:58 PM
anyone long any airline stocks before Delta and such report ? very negative news, but maybe they produce good numbers.. I have been looking to get into SAVE (38.10)/JBLU (19.39) , maybe this is the time.. thoughts?
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07-11-2018 , 04:57 PM
oil markets lost connection 5 minutes before settlement after going down ~$4 today ($6 for brent). that was real neato. luckily there were hedges or i would have **** my pants.
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07-12-2018 , 01:13 AM
Put a buy stop out for ISR just over past couple days hod. It can run. It had big runs in 2009 and 14.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
07-12-2018 , 08:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
oil markets lost connection 5 minutes before settlement after going down ~$4 today ($6 for brent). that was real neato. luckily there were hedges or i would have **** my pants.
This was a very special day! I am mostly only trading Wednesdays for the inventory report and this was the best one this year. I didn't trade any CL but was short both HO and RB and those breakouts to the downside just wouldn't quit and never gave a reason to cover until the close. I wish every day was like that
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07-12-2018 , 03:58 PM
Bought the stock as well as hopped into a bunch of Intelsat calls expiring next week. Todays FCC news and 50% of the float being short makes me think the next leg in an epic squeeze could be coming up here shortly.
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07-17-2018 , 09:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ibavly
I'm not going to say that being involved in those communities is a complete waste, there's something to be said for immersing yourself in the topic, but make sure your mind set is just that you are increasing exposure, not that you're actually developing your skills from those sources. Similar to how TS has plenty of posts in this forum worth reading while if you tried to take positions based on his posts you'd probably lose a small fortune.

It sounds like you're fairly new and uninformed in the trading space, the first step should be defining goals more clearly for yourself. Do you want to trade crypto, equities, derivatives, bonds? What timeframe do you want to trade? What skills do you have that will allow you to outperform the market? Do you want to trade your own money in your basement or as a team for a firm?

I'd suggest starting with some books that may not teach you to trade, but introduce you to the trading world so you can start answering those questions. Biographies and the like such as ed thorpes book, market wizards, and anything else that catches your eye. Try to find an irl trader to meet and chat with you. You'll get better information there than anything people will provide on the internet.
Thanks for the suggestions ibavly. I just started reading those books. I had made a long reply the day after but accidentally deleted. Was so bothered didn’t come back here for this long. Long story short I mainly wanted to say thanks, been a long time follower since your poker spin days and appreciate your posts, even though I’m just sit on the sides just reading and not engaging (until now at least )

Rhetorical questions are good, I’m still exploring what I want with trading. But obviously I would want smallest time frame possible to retire early and trade the format with highest ROI ceiling. Like poker, should choose Mtt’s for highest possible earnings. Would also want to get start out with team to be anxiety-free from losing own money and fasten learning curve.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
07-17-2018 , 09:13 AM
Short term options have the highest ROI ceiling.

They're the best way to lose money if you're not skilled (99% you're in this category)
They're the best way to get rich if you have the temperament and intelligence for it (<1% are in this category)

You're probably 99.9% not to be a winner at it given that you're looking for ROI rather than looking for edges and then maximizing those edges. So I'd recommended doing some straight stock trading first. If you can pick delta reliably then put a very tentative finger into options with your winnings from swing trading stocks (and only with your winnings from swing trading stocks). And i you don't win over a large sample swing trading, you gonna get raped.jpg in options.
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07-17-2018 , 02:34 PM
RIOT HVBTF ripping on Bitcoin bounce. Got some HVBTF
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07-17-2018 , 04:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/20/wall...valuation.html

Analysts are staying pat or buying the dip for FB.
Rather remarkable that there isn’t a single downgrade
Analysts get a lot of **** and some of it is deserved but damn, making the financial media look silly. My favorite story from Barron's (Charlie is a fantastic fintwit follow btw & obviously this tweet is a little outdated)...

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/s...385537024?s=19

Edit: I suck at embedding for some reason.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
07-17-2018 , 08:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by XTYME
Thanks for the suggestions ibavly. I just started reading those books. I had made a long reply the day after but accidentally deleted. Was so bothered didn’t come back here for this long. Long story short I mainly wanted to say thanks, been a long time follower since your poker spin days and appreciate your posts, even though I’m just sit on the sides just reading and not engaging (until now at least )

Rhetorical questions are good, I’m still exploring what I want with trading. But obviously I would want smallest time frame possible to retire early and trade the format with highest ROI ceiling. Like poker, should choose Mtt’s for highest possible earnings. Would also want to get start out with team to be anxiety-free from losing own money and fasten learning curve.
Cheers and good luck!
2018 Trading Thread Quote
07-17-2018 , 08:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Short term options have the highest ROI ceiling.

They're the best way to lose money if you're not skilled (99% you're in this category)
They're the best way to get rich if you have the temperament and intelligence for it (<1% are in this category)

You're probably 99.9% not to be a winner at it given that you're looking for ROI rather than looking for edges and then maximizing those edges. So I'd recommended doing some straight stock trading first. If you can pick delta reliably then put a very tentative finger into options with your winnings from swing trading stocks (and only with your winnings from swing trading stocks). And i you don't win over a large sample swing trading, you gonna get raped.jpg in options.
To clarify for the newbies, you meant long options in the above.

To add a bit, if your wins aren't large enough to overcome the commissions and spreads at $14+ per round trip doing straight stock trading, you can still win using options, but only in the same manner as you can win your state lottery.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
07-20-2018 , 07:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
Sometimes I wonder if Trump hyped up the stock results all throughout 2017 to pump it up so that he could enter into trade wars and crash the stock market, while still ending up with an overall stock market gain since his tenure began.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
I'm not talking particularly about today; just a thought in general if a full blown trade war were to actually happen. Like if Trump's line of thought was something like "well, the stock market has gained a lot in 2017, I can afford to enter into actual trade wars now and my constituents wouldn't mind so much, but the other countries can't afford to go into trade wars."

But yeah, the Chinese stock market would probably blow up harder than the U.S. market would in response to an actual full blown trade war.


Well, okay then.

Between this, and making craptons of money trading options betting on Trump winning the presidency, steel tariffs and swing trading options based on NAFTA progress, perhaps I should've quit my job and become a full time political consultant.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
07-21-2018 , 12:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System


Well, okay then.

Between this, and making craptons of money trading options betting on Trump winning the presidency, steel tariffs and swing trading options based on NAFTA progress, perhaps I should've quit my job and become a full time political consultant.
Lol. I apologize for my 10d chess joke.

(I do stand by it, btw, but maybe he is a kung fu genius)
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07-24-2018 , 12:48 AM
CVSI watch for continuation
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07-24-2018 , 02:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
CVSI watch for continuation
nice rip again today. I got some last week. up like 30% atm. They filed for Nasdaq listing. Earnings are in about a week. Man that BGSF tho
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07-24-2018 , 06:16 PM
Donk bot PYPL 1-mo calls today.
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07-24-2018 , 09:56 PM
I hopped in some CWH Aug 20 puts this morning. CR warned about slowing RV sales and everything in the sector points to trouble. CWH also has been on a debt-fueled acquisition spree lately and could be in big trouble if these acquisitions don't pan out.
2018 Trading Thread Quote
07-25-2018 , 12:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
CVSI
All out +36%
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07-25-2018 , 05:43 PM
125b$ vanished in fb afterhour trading.
crazy.
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07-25-2018 , 05:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BooLoo
125b$ vanished in fb afterhour trading.
crazy.
This report isn't 22% down bad, definitely going to be some opportunities as a result of this. Using options helps mitigates some of these disasters but it still hurts nonetheless. The fake accounts that Twitter talked about haven't been discussed as much here and investment in security is a short term drain on growth when engagement in the main platform appears to be peaking. Instagram is still growing like crazy, do not forget the power of that platform.
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