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2018 Trading Thread 2018 Trading Thread

06-19-2018 , 12:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ibavly
Every online 'resource' is garbage. If you're motivated and smart enough to succeed, buy some textbooks
What if the textbook is online?
2018 Trading Thread Quote
06-19-2018 , 12:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by syndr0me
What if the textbook is online?


2018 Trading Thread
2018 Trading Thread Quote
06-19-2018 , 01:27 PM
New here, what textbooks you recommend?

My only investment so far is hodling Bitcoin with 50% of my total networth (age 28) since Oct.'17
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06-19-2018 , 01:35 PM
Sounds like a hell of a ride. Just curious - why didn't you sell at $20K?
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06-19-2018 , 02:11 PM
What are your goals and your current knowledge base? This may be more appropriate in another thread.
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06-19-2018 , 03:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Sounds like a hell of a ride. Just curious - why didn't you sell at $20K?
Because planned to sell only when price reach 5-10% of Gold market cap.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ibavly
What are your goals and your current knowledge base? This may be more appropriate in another thread.
Gonna be honest, my goal is to have $1 to $10 million total networth.
I still play poker for a living, but want to fully transition to trading within next 3 years.
Current knowledge base on trading extremely poor beside a couple youtube videos on crypto TA + read twitter daily following crypto community there.
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06-19-2018 , 03:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Sounds like a hell of a ride. Just curious - why didn't you sell at $20K?
Why is this relevant and/or who cares? No one sold at $20k because it never reached that limit lol. Could've asked that question a thousand times over the past few years at any random amount.
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06-19-2018 , 03:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by XTYME
Because planned to sell only when price reach 5-10% of Gold market cap.


Gonna be honest, my goal is to have $1 to $10 million total networth.
I still play poker for a living, but want to fully transition to trading within next 3 years.
Current knowledge base on trading extremely poor beside a couple youtube videos on crypto TA + read twitter daily following crypto community there.
Be careful with whoever you follow on social media related to crypto. I'm sure you understand many of those accounts shill in a lot of different ways, many technical analysts all the sudden lol.
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06-19-2018 , 04:40 PM
Tooth - did you load up yet on those NFLX puts?
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06-19-2018 , 04:41 PM
pizarro - not yet. Will post in the Netflix thread when I do. Unlike shorts, I like my put buys to be impeccably timed. As I said in the NFLX thread I was hoping for a 400 break and maybe a bit more of a run beyond that.

I wish the market wasn't slightly spooked by trade wars, hopefully it dies down although I'm expecting a small correction more than any other outcome. Can't pull the trigger on NFLX yet.
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06-19-2018 , 05:12 PM
Why do I want to short so many things right now?

obvious example--there is no, no ****ing way NFLX is worth this but things like that don't mean anything in markets which makes shorts really annoying. As noted on twitter somewhere, AOL hit higher than this in 2000. ****ing AOL.

TAP is also one of them as they should be losers in the tariff wars.

wtf do I know though.

Last edited by wheatrich; 06-19-2018 at 05:23 PM.
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06-19-2018 , 06:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by XTYME
Gonna be honest, my goal is to have $1 to $10 million total networth.
I still play poker for a living, but want to fully transition to trading within next 3 years.
Current knowledge base on trading extremely poor beside a couple youtube videos on crypto TA + read twitter daily following crypto community there.
I'm not going to say that being involved in those communities is a complete waste, there's something to be said for immersing yourself in the topic, but make sure your mind set is just that you are increasing exposure, not that you're actually developing your skills from those sources. Similar to how TS has plenty of posts in this forum worth reading while if you tried to take positions based on his posts you'd probably lose a small fortune.

It sounds like you're fairly new and uninformed in the trading space, the first step should be defining goals more clearly for yourself. Do you want to trade crypto, equities, derivatives, bonds? What timeframe do you want to trade? What skills do you have that will allow you to outperform the market? Do you want to trade your own money in your basement or as a team for a firm?

I'd suggest starting with some books that may not teach you to trade, but introduce you to the trading world so you can start answering those questions. Biographies and the like such as ed thorpes book, market wizards, and anything else that catches your eye. Try to find an irl trader to meet and chat with you. You'll get better information there than anything people will provide on the internet.
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06-20-2018 , 02:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
PC Connection CNXN is hitting new multi year highs and trailing PE is just 14, forward PE 11. Earnings guidance consistently raised. Strong balance sheet. Price just congested at the top of this long resistance area as a triangular pennant snd it is moving. Don't know much about the biz but it is in a strong sector atm. I want to see it print over 31. Loose stop.
this one's looking good, bought some MDC here low 30.00 area mental stop
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06-21-2018 , 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
If you could reliably, profitably hit a 67% chance of success in options trades, why would go through a huge amount of trouble setting up a website, making videos, doing promotions, and dealing with $50 subscribers? Option trades scale up to the millions and even beyond. This isn't like poker where coaching can be more profitable than playing if you're good.

Is winning money on 67% of their positions actually attainable or does that sound like nonsense to you?

What sort of resources would you recommend if a person wanted to learn more about options trading?
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06-21-2018 , 02:05 PM
it would be easy to win on even 90%+ of trades

hull and natenburg are the solid introductions
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06-24-2018 , 11:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
SWN energy name has been beaten down so much it looks like it just got forgotten about .80 price to sales and low single digit PE multiple. Think net tangible asset value was like 1.75 b. market cap got pretty close with the stock in 3's. Earnings guidance is anything but stable but it had a wide ranging day on March 2nd and has just been coiling up with this triangle since. I put a buy stop out over 4.65 for a trade.
Let this energy one SWN and DNR also fall off my watchlists. They've been running. I like OAS and MVO more now. OAS has really good growth for their size and MVO is a trust yielding 14%. For the past 6 years the dividend has been up and down but consistently something.
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06-27-2018 , 01:33 PM
Longed DNR breakout and MVO this morning for swing trade. Looking for OAS breakout and DBC on watchlist. Going small in all these as i already have UCO as a core position. Got stopped out of MDC for a loss. Never should have entered it in first place. All out FDX too.
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06-27-2018 , 02:20 PM
Financials especially among the big caps are on the verge of a massive breakdown here, 5th time XLF is testing $26.5 since February/same level it broke to new highs in November. On a relative basis, these are a nightmare. Even as the market was making new highs early into this year, they were still lagging. Notice where the long end of the curve is? Still a lot of bullish sentiment and short rate positioning.

Ccar coming up, should be interesting to see whether any pop sticks or if they use it to flush it under this level.
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06-29-2018 , 11:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheatrich
Why do I want to short so many things right now?

obvious example--there is no, no ****ing way NFLX is worth this but things like that don't mean anything in markets which makes shorts really annoying. As noted on twitter somewhere, AOL hit higher than this in 2000. ****ing AOL.

TAP is also one of them as they should be losers in the tariff wars.

wtf do I know though.
Never short something that trades on air, hopes and dreams. The price is already irrational.

Short the melting ice cubes like CPGs or foods trading at 18-25x PE ratios that are getting disintermediated and can't add things like SAAS! Cloud! to their earnings calls.
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06-29-2018 , 11:30 AM
Just had to brag, I bottom ticked Nike like 18 months ago under $50. Put in one of my biggest buys, partially because I was overweight tech and financials.

Feels good today, man.
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06-29-2018 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense
Just had to brag, I bottom ticked Nike like 18 months ago under $50. Put in one of my biggest buys, partially because I was overweight tech and financials.

Feels good today, man.
No better feeling than to bottom tick other than maybe getting out of a trade before it implodes lol. Incredible move, blew past the expected range by a substantial margin. This was my point about retail last page, you own the names performing well inside the majors. Why own Macy's when I can own Nike and Estee Lauder that are a huge driver of their own success this year? If I'm short, which stocks are the easiest ways to pair trade and/or hedge?
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06-30-2018 , 01:57 PM
Definitely the latter, I sold some LEH at like 85-90 on the way up and felt like a moron when it hit 120. I sold more on the way down and pitched my final stub shares at $45 or so on the descent and felt like a moron again.

Then I felt like a genius, haha.

seriously though haven't bottom ticked a big trade like NKE in years.
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07-05-2018 , 11:13 PM
Just a hunch but but I think ES (S&P's) has a big trend day tomorrow if it goes green on the day. Its been bottoming the past couple weeks. Long biased. MDC which I noticed being correlated just finished bottoming and ran.
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07-05-2018 , 11:20 PM
I'm starting to stalk CVNA for a short up here. I wouldn't be surprised to see it squeeze another 15 points before it eventually unwinds.
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07-06-2018 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
Just a hunch but but I think ES (S&P's) has a big trend day tomorrow if it goes green on the day. Its been bottoming the past couple weeks. Long biased. MDC which I noticed being correlated just finished bottoming and ran.
You've had a lot of good calls this year dude, keep it up. Fridays have been insane this year, so many good trading opportunities.
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