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2018 Trading Thread 2018 Trading Thread

02-25-2018 , 12:06 PM
I've always traded in a prop account so I've never thought about taxes in a retail account. So what are the tax consequences of owning mutual funds vs etfs? Say I wanted to own preferreds, how is PFF going to be treated differently than CPXIX? I think that etfs with div reinvestment won't be taxed until you sell, while a mutual fund passes through all the taxes to the holders. Correct me if I'm wrong.

It's interesting regarding preferreds because the etf follows an index that uses pretty dumb logic that gets very manipulated and can be easily beaten by active management, before taxes at least.
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02-25-2018 , 07:57 PM
There are some weird things that can happen with mutual funds and taxes due to outflow. I think this was particularly noticeable with some active funds last year when people got unexpectedly hammered by large tax bills.
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02-26-2018 , 01:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by juan valdez
interesting to see big up moves evaporate two days in a row. i hope your short vol trade works out... until tuesday, then blows up
That happens to me a fairly large percentage of the time. Not on Tuesdays, specifically.
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02-26-2018 , 01:16 PM
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Originally Posted by ASAP17
Given how much NFLX & AMZN ran into (& after in NFLX case) their prints, the relative strength today is even more impressive. Good luck calling the top in these names.
Nice move back to ATHs, continued relative strength during the comeback.
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02-27-2018 , 01:12 AM
VMIN/VMAX changing to 2 to 6 month vix futures. That is kind of smart, but a complete change in their strategy which was to be short/long the weeklies. I can easily support this change since the new product will be kind of useful.

Proshares changing SVXY to -0.5 short and UVXY to +1.5 long. These are changes that are stupid as a ... Well, I can't think of something so stupid.
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02-27-2018 , 01:23 AM
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Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
Proshares changing SVXY to -0.5 short and UVXY to +1.5 long. These are changes that are stupid as a ... Well, I can't think of something so stupid.
good way to make sure people lose all interest in them
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02-27-2018 , 06:20 AM
You might actually have to man up and start selling puts, Brian. Cut out the middle man.
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02-27-2018 , 01:13 PM
First day trade in over a week and it's my biggest win ever doing it. Tooth I owe you for getting me to change there.

In TGIF .42 and out .475

big big position too, steak tonight
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02-27-2018 , 02:39 PM
Bravo
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02-27-2018 , 02:56 PM
TGIF @ .57 - I don't day trade, but I was going to buy some this morning when I arrived at the office only to be inundated with work and not getting a chance to log in only to find out the price had moved huge.
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02-27-2018 , 03:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkD
TGIF @ .57 - I don't day trade, but I was going to buy some this morning when I arrived at the office only to be inundated with work and not getting a chance to log in only to find out the price had moved huge.
When I closed the trade it was because

1) I was going to leave my desk

2) I can't put stop loses on .cn holdings, which is frustrating

Told myself full well that there was a better than good chance I'd come home to find I left a lot on the table. If you had asked me 2 weeks ago how I'd feel about making 10% when I could have made 25%-30%, I'd have said "furious". Today's the first time I'm really not mad.

I've finally come around to not chastising myself over this kind of stuff, specially when #1 and #2 are true. I can't leave positions that big unsupervised in something so volatile.

53 cents now, curious to see where it closes. I really hate that no stop loss rule. For sure I let winners run more when I'm allowed that.

Last edited by rafiki; 02-27-2018 at 03:57 PM.
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02-27-2018 , 04:04 PM
I don't understand how DDS is only up 15% when 70% of the float was short.
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02-27-2018 , 04:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Mori****a System
I don't understand how DDS is only up 15% when 70% of the float was short.
I can't believe I sold DDS yesterday to get some cash to average down weed stocks.
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02-27-2018 , 04:41 PM
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Twitter decent medium term short at $33 (I liked it long at $19 a few months ago) with Jack throwing cold water on an acquisition and talking about Twitter's structural advertising issues at a conference. Profit taking fairly likely.

Chipolte decent medium term long at $281 with the Taco Bell CEO brought in to help turn it around. Personally I think the company is trash, but it's been priced a lot higher even recently and the new big-deal CEO should be a nice upside catalyst.
Twitter is pissing me off, may as well take 5% profit here at $31.30 if anyone followed. It's underperformed the market badly but not as much as hoped.

Hit the holy grail of Sharpe here:



Got to be looking for these kind of pair trades imo in this new market where whipsawing is common and you can't have a lot of certainty.
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02-27-2018 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkD
I can't believe I sold DDS yesterday to get some cash to average down weed stocks.
Should've waited at least to earnings. What was the point in holding DDS if you weren't waiting at least for the short squeeze to come from the holiday sales results?
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02-27-2018 , 05:11 PM
Ht
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
I really hate that no stop loss rule. For sure I let winners run more when I'm allowed that.
If I find myself in a big gainer and have to protect profits but I think there could be more upside I sell like 80% or so of the position and leave the rest to run. I sell enough to lock in the big gain and accomplish the trade. Taking profit and leaving a fractional amount vs a hard stop works better for me for a few reasons.

1. It protects profit and downside is limited with only a 1/4 or so of shares left. 2. You can widen the last stop loss and make it mental thus allowing you to hold it more days. Allows a runner to run. 3. Its easier mentally to hold a smaller position longer.
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02-27-2018 , 05:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
Should've waited at least to earnings. What was the point in holding DDS if you weren't waiting at least for the short squeeze to come from the holiday sales results?
I was planning to hold it for a long time. Quite honestly I was naively riding on 2+2 coat tails on my purchase of DDS at around 50ish last summer without an underlying thesis and I do not understand how to see the short float or how to evaluate it with respect to when to buy or sell. I made this decision purely because I was averaging down on some stocks I had been gambling on and needed some cash.

I have no delusions that I am a savvy investor with an edge, but I read here in an attempt to learn.
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02-27-2018 , 10:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jupiter0
Ht
If I find myself in a big gainer and have to protect profits but I think there could be more upside I sell like 80% or so of the position and leave the rest to run. I sell enough to lock in the big gain and accomplish the trade. Taking profit and leaving a fractional amount vs a hard stop works better for me for a few reasons.

1. It protects profit and downside is limited with only a 1/4 or so of shares left. 2. You can widen the last stop loss and make it mental thus allowing you to hold it more days. Allows a runner to run. 3. Its easier mentally to hold a smaller position longer.
But there must be short time frames that can't apply to that well? Totally agree when the time frame is appropriate.
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02-28-2018 , 12:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by juan valdez
interesting to see big up moves evaporate two days in a row. i hope your short vol trade works out... until tuesday, then blows up
Good call. Got stopped out and it is Tuesday
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02-28-2018 , 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
Good call. Got stopped out and it is Tuesday
thanks but it was as much of a wish as a call
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02-28-2018 , 02:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Twitter is pissing me off, may as well take 5% profit here at $31.30 if anyone followed. It's underperformed the market badly but not as much as hoped.

Hit the holy grail of Sharpe here:

Got to be looking for these kind of pair trades imo in this new market where whipsawing is common and you can't have a lot of certainty.
I tailed you on this one and got out just before close yesterday, thanks!
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02-28-2018 , 02:35 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/28/ackm...herbalife.html

gg ackman. this was the coolest thing to sweat when i first started trading. the ackman icahn war.
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02-28-2018 , 05:13 PM
Some possible shadiness today on the eia energy report?

Typically a couple minutes before the report liquidity dries up an the markets get real wide and nothing happens. But today about a minute or 2 before release the markets started selling off. I got worried that my clock was off but it wasn't. Somebody somewhere must have had leaked info and made a play.

This used to be commonplace in financial reports but I have never seen it before from the EIA report. One time about a decade ago they got postponed for about 10 minutes and absolutely nothing happened. I joked to the guy next to me that if it was a financial report that bonds would already be rocking. I will definitely be on the lookout for this kind of stuff in the future as all energies took a major league dump.
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02-28-2018 , 05:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/28/ackm...herbalife.html

gg ackman. this was the coolest thing to sweat when i first started trading. the ackman icahn war.
I heard about this a while back, he exited his straight short or was in the process of, but bought a lot of long term put options instead.

Did he get rid of his options too?
Probably the time to short this stock now.

Stock has a really high P/E and it's increasing. Also, their debt is accumulating significantly

Last edited by bigt2k4; 02-28-2018 at 05:51 PM.
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02-28-2018 , 09:05 PM
theres a very long bull case here from a while back...

https://brontecapital.********.com/2...long-post.html

for some reason the blog hosting domain which goes blog then spot is censored. mods plz dont ban meeeeeeee.
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