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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Not to be a debbie downer but I think these shorts are invalid for a year long hold and the owners are in fact far underwater. I can't even borrow GTBC, and for example. KODK has a 180% borrow fee, which mean you lost 80% even if goes to zero by the end of the year, and you lose 180% if it doesn't.
Perhaps the cost of borrow fees will drop, but given the nature of these stocks it seems unlikely.
They are of course excellent short term trades (I recommended GBTC short myself) and jb514 and backstabr are heros for taking them and would of course exit for a nice profit in the real world as soon as downside was overcome by borrow fees. But I'm sure how well they'll fly in a year long "can't sell" competition.
Guess those are big differences between longs and shorts - anybody have any ideas of how we may be able to make adjustments to the contest to factor in some of these things?
Maybe one thing we can do is keep track of who is ahead with mostly longs at the end of every month? In January it was mrbaseball, who has some blockchain shorts, but also has several longs which are doing very well
Guess after yesterday the longs are a little behind right now - although they seemed to be holding their own until last week. Maybe they'll manage to catch up in a while, or maybe the bitcoin sell-off will start to taper off?
Although, was looking at the longer timelines for the VXX thingie today - lol, wow are they sure volatile!
Maybe this time next month Brian could have this contest in the bag
It looks like every time there's been spikes like the ones in the last little while, the price has gone back down just as quickly, even though people have been predicting a downturn for a couple of years now?
Also ToothSayer, do you mind having your name added to the contest, with a short of GBTC? Like Zeno said, it's just for fun. It sounds like most of us have stuff on our lists that we don't really have in real-life - and everybody knows you haven't been super interested in having much to do with crypto, like DoctorZangief points out, and stuff ...
Just added OB9988 - and can add OlafTheSnowman and As1an1nvas1on if you have any picks you'd like to give an e-shot, just for kicks and a fun sweat? Olaf, finally got around to cutting and pasting those formulas into C6 - omg, they totally worked, yesss!!1! Would be super great if you would like to join the contest
And also As1an1nvas1on - seem to remember seeing your name a lot in the Zoom lobbies back in the day?