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2018 Stock Picking Contest 2018 Stock Picking Contest

12-29-2017 , 07:08 PM
Long:
PTEN
NOC
APA
BOTZ
WDAY
INDA
GLNG

Short:
LFIN
RIOT
GBTC

No in depth analysis just long some stuff I think will increase and short some of the stupid looking bitcoin stocks.
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
12-29-2017 , 07:45 PM
Long: LE YEXT BOJA FRTA VRA CLDX NK KODK ICON ALNA
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
12-29-2017 , 10:51 PM
Long: TAP (82.07), MOS (25.66), CTRP (44.10), HIMX (10.42), SWIR (20.45), MKC (101.91), JD (41.42), SLCA (32.56), FLR (51.65), BOJA (11.80)
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
12-30-2017 , 02:55 AM
Removing GS replacing with Powershares Dynamic Food and Bev ETF (PBJ)
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12-30-2017 , 12:57 PM
Probably need to fade cryptos and better off using individual stocks or leveraged ETF's to win this, but i'm not going that far

Long: DBA, REMX, BOTZ
Short: GBTC, RIOT, CRM, TSLA, HD, YELP, FINL

good luck
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
12-30-2017 , 06:11 PM
LONG: QCC (TSX-V), TNY (TSX-V), EMC (TSX-V), STN (TSX), BBY (TSX), CRH (TSX), PEY(TSX), DOL (TSX)

SHORT: TSLA, RIOT

AND NO WAY IN HELL DOES THIS REFLECT MY ACTUAL PORTFOLIO
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
12-31-2017 , 10:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
Long: AGO, SLP, DDS, DS, MGM, ORBT, EDUC
Short: TSLA, GBTC, DRYS

If it's a 5/5 split, drop EDUC and ORBT from the long side and add SSTI and UVXY on the short side
I'm going to change this to:

Long: AGO, DDS, DS, MGM, ORBT
Short: TSLA, GBTC, UVXY, DRYS, SSTI
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-01-2018 , 12:06 AM
Very fun to have a stock-picking contest - and then as more of a beginner to investing, it's also been a great opportunity to have the chance to get ideas from everybody else here at 2+2 about what else there is to invest in besides FANG.

FANG was my go-to this year as a beginner, so it was pretty neat to go through all the picks in this thread and see such a wider variety of choices. Saw some pharma stuff awaiting FDA approval that stand to really jump huge if they get the go ahead, and some shorts of recent IPOs that exploded out of the gate that now seem to be coming back down to earth? Was also seeing some stuff like leveraged volatility futures, and quite a few value picks of stocks that had become quite beaten down before managing turnarounds?


Have to admit to getting most of my long ideas for this year from other people in this thread - so if my picks wind up doing well, will have to give credit to others, because would have had no idea these picks existed, if not for other peoples' posts May very well even give these a chance in real life - they seem like they may have a decent chance of continuing to do well in the coming year? Hopefully??
Long
  • INDA (Ishares India ETF)
  • BOTZ (Robotics and AI index fund)
  • PRMCF (Canada pot stock #1)
  • EMHTF (Canada pot stock #2)
  • ASHR (China ETF - inspired by some of the picks in this thread)
  • also WTW (Oprah's company)
  • AMZN (My security blanket )
  • FB (Security blanket #2 )
  • AAPL (Security blanket #3 )

Have only given shorting a little bit of a try - and things did not go well Maybe was unprepared for the volatility, and didn't give things enough time? Was considering giving shorting of Sears a try this year - wonder what the odds of success for the Kelly Criterion might be ... high? Hopefully?? Guess still important to be willing to let the short go the wrong way several times over in the short-term though? If anybody has any shorting tips - they'd be super welcome
Short
  • SHLD (Sears)

GL to us all this year with our picks - for the contest, and especially in real-life!!

Last edited by TrustySam; 01-01-2018 at 12:31 AM.
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-01-2018 , 12:42 AM
People might find this interesting ...


Guess with over something like 9000 US stocks, maybe it's to be expected that there wouldn't be too many repeat mentions of stocks on peoples' lists? Did notice a couple though ...
Long - TTD, GE
Short - TSLA, RIOT

Long and Short - GBTC, NVDA, TTWO, SNAP, FB, NFLX, DDS, BKS, MARA

Guess having a couple of stocks that got picked as both longs and shorts may make them especially interesting follows in the coming year?
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-01-2018 , 07:21 PM
ayight let's get this in before the markets open. Guess I gotta take the close from Friday?

Long:

BOTZ (23.70), JO (15.69)

Short:

GBTC (2016), SNAP (14.61), VXX (27.92), UVXY (10.21)


I need to add way more longs because of this random $3 rule. Don't see why we chose $3 over a market cap tbh...

Lot of illegal picks in here right now as a result. Can't we do like 400m market caps or something?

Last edited by rafiki; 01-01-2018 at 07:47 PM.
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-01-2018 , 07:25 PM
Very tough to narrow down a list to ten, got a lot of ideas on both sides across the board. A bit random but here we go...

LONG: AGM, CF, NOV, R, TTMI, TWX, VIRT
SHORT: ACIA, AMD, CHK
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-01-2018 , 08:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mori****a System
I'm going to change this to:

Long: AGO, DDS, DS, MGM, ORBT
Short: TSLA, GBTC, UVXY, DRYS, SSTI
Will the bolded actually make you money? UVXY has gone from $50 million down to $10 in 5 years; surely the borrow fees account for the guaranteed short profit, such that you get nothing?

Which brings up a point - we need to track borrow fees on some of these shorts. They're 30+% year for some of heavily shorted stock.
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-01-2018 , 08:44 PM
Someone should fire up a 2018 trading thread since it's basically the LC thread. If no takers, I'll do it again.
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-01-2018 , 09:02 PM
Yes please. Add witty comment about stocks outperforming Bitcoin in 2018
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-01-2018 , 10:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gangip
Long: LE YEXT BOJA FRTA VRA CLDX NK KODK ICON ALNA
I forgot about the $3/share rule. Editing my list to:

Long: SPWR PSDO LE YEXT BOJA FRTA VRA NK KODK ALNA
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-01-2018 , 10:19 PM
LONG: HOS, TAIL, QYLD, DGS
SHORT: RIOT, LFIN, DPW, LTEA, SIEB, FTFT

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Which brings up a point - we need to track borrow fees on some of these shorts. They're 30+% year for some of heavily shorted stock.
Shhh!
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-02-2018 , 12:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Will the bolded actually make you money? UVXY has gone from $50 million down to $10 in 5 years; surely the borrow fees account for the guaranteed short profit, such that you get nothing?
UVXY borrow fees run between 7 and 10 percent annualized.
TVIX tends to be less.
VXX runs 2-3%

Quote:
Which brings up a point - we need to track borrow fees on some of these shorts. They're 30+% year for some of heavily shorted stock.
No real point. This is just for fun.
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-02-2018 , 12:45 AM
Final choices with Friday's closing prices:

Long: PUTW (29.06), TLT (127.55), YUM (81.60), ZIV (88.70), SVXY (128.21)

Short: VXX (27.92), UXVY (10.21), TVIX (5.67), VXZ (17.50), VMAX (12.24)
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-02-2018 , 01:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
Short: VXX (27.92), UXVY (10.21), TVIX (5.67), VXZ (17.50), VMAX (12.24)
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-02-2018 , 01:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Will the bolded actually make you money? UVXY has gone from $50 million down to $10 in 5 years; surely the borrow fees account for the guaranteed short profit, such that you get nothing?

Which brings up a point - we need to track borrow fees on some of these shorts. They're 30+% year for some of heavily shorted stock.
Paying double digit borrow fees to buy a 2x XIV that can go below 0.. Sure, you do usually win...
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-02-2018 , 01:45 AM
Long: IRBT (76.70), FRTA (11.10), DS (5.53), SKT (26.51), KMI (18.07), APPN (31.48), FOGO (11.60)

Short: TSLA (311.35), SNAP (14.61), GWPH (132.01)
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-02-2018 , 02:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomCowley
Paying double digit borrow fees to buy a 2x XIV that can go below 0.. Sure, you do usually win...
It is a silly contest. My entry into this silly game is guaranteed to go bankrupt every so often.
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-02-2018 , 02:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Will the bolded actually make you money? UVXY has gone from $50 million down to $10 in 5 years; surely the borrow fees account for the guaranteed short profit, such that you get nothing?

Which brings up a point - we need to track borrow fees on some of these shorts. They're 30+% year for some of heavily shorted stock.
You're taking the fun out of the game. Short selling is the easiest thing ever if you aren't counting short interest
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-02-2018 , 02:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jb514
Short DPW RIOT XNET MARA GBTC LFIN NXTD DRYS SIEB WINS
made a few substitutions. I'm just going to mark 2018 year end performance at +75%
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote
01-02-2018 , 02:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
I need to add way more longs because of this random $3 rule. Don't see why we chose $3 over a market cap tbh...

Lot of illegal picks in here right now as a result. Can't we do like 400m market caps or something?
I think the $3 share price can be flexible especially if it has some market cap. I just figured most people are low price averse.
2018 Stock Picking Contest Quote

      
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